The Yankees and the Phillies were the best teams on paper going into the season, and on grass during the season. And then in 5 games, poof, it's gone. The Yankees had a glaring hole in their rotation, exacerbated when CC Sabathia could really only pitch one game. But then again, AJ Burnett gave them much more than expected in Game 4. The Phillies rotation almost lived up to expectations in the series, but their offense completely deserted them. These are the two teams in the league I hate most, so I don't feel sad at all, but I do think it is kind of unfair that the best record over 162 games seems to matter so little in a 5 or 7 game series.
Numbers Don't Lie
There is always a big debate among statistically-inclined fans (of which I am one) and those who believe in "clutch" performances (I'm in that camp too). The statheads say a player who gets hits or home runs at a certain rate during the regular season, will eventually revert to that same pace in the postseason (with a minor adjustment for facing better pitchers. But this game is played by human beings not robots. And it's clear whenever Alex Rodriguez gets up in a key spot his brain prevents his body from performing at its normal level. A-Rod had two more big strikeouts in Game 5 against the Detroit, the killer in the 7th with one out and the bases loaded and the formality to end the game. If you look at his total postseason record it actually isn't terrible, 884 OPS in 299 plate appearances (better than Jeter, btw). But he has had some really awesome series (all 3 in 2009, and the ones he played in before becoming a Yankee) and some terrible ones (the two against Detroit come to mind). But he has struck out 64 times in 299 PAs, a very high rate, which occasionally leads to him walking off the field sullenly while someone celebrates behind him.
A Tiger Triple is Possible
Justin Verlander is a lock to win the AL Cy Young and a near-lock to win the MVP as well. With only 4 teams left he has a roughly 25% chance of winning the World Series too. The last two times a pitcher won a World Series, the Cy Young and the MVP in the same series they were both Tigers. Gulliermo Hernandez in 1984 and Denny McLain in 1968.
No One Ever Uses Magnificent in Front of Allen Craig's Name
In Game 3 of the Phillies-Cardinals series, the Cardinals loaded the bases with one out in the 8th inning. They were trailing 3-1 with Allen Craig up and The Magnificent Pooh Holes on deck. This was not second-guessing, I said before the at bat, Craig should have struck out on purpose. It seems crazy but I really liked their chances better with Pooh Holes up and two outs. Craig grounded into a double play and Pooh Holes led off the next inning with a double. But the Cardinals lost 3-2.
Revisiting The Last Night of the Regular Season
There has been a lot of talk about expanding the playoffs, maybe by one more team in each league and having the two wild card teams play a one-game "series" to strengthen the advantage of winning your division (would certainly give a rotational advantage). At first I was in favor, but now I have changed my mind. That great final night of the season would have been meaningless because Boston, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Atlanta would have all sewn up spots. And I know an exciting race could still happen between the 5th and 6th teams in each league, but I think that is watering it down a little too much. You'd have barely adequate teams competing for final playoff spots, like in hockey and basketball. Better to keep it to only the very best teams, so we can continue to get exciting well-played playoff series.
Can't Buy Me Love
With the elimination of the Phillies and Yankees, none of the four remaining teams is in the top 9 highest payrolls. The Tigers are 10th, Cardinals 11th, Rangers 13th and the small-market Brewers are 17th. It will be interesting to see if that changes next year as both NL teams have free agent first basemen who will surely get $20m per year contracts. I expect Pooh Holes to stay with St. Louis, but Fielder is almost certainly a goner.
