Playoff Predictions

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7 kansas city chiefs
What is the Colts biggest weakness? Run defense. Who do the Chiefs have? Larry Johnson. What is the Colts record at home this season? 8-0. Which of those is the more important factor? The one that actually governs how the game is played? Or a happenstance based partly on results from early in the season when the Colts were playing much better...and not playing against the Chiefs.
Now I'm not saying the Chiefs are great; the formerly formidable passing offense is gone and their defense is only ok. But they will control this game with the run and as long as they don't get buried early, they will win.
We'll know all about this game in the first two Colts series. If Manning is on his game the Colts will win. But if the Chiefs can get to him early he'll have his typical Manning meltdown. Manning is 3-6 lifetime in the playoffs, that's not coincidence, something happens to him in big games, and I expect it to happen again.

Chance the Colts cover the spread: 30% (5% of a push)
Chance the Colts win the game: 51%

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 dallas cowboys
The Seahawks stink, and they have a lot of injuries. The Cowboys haven't been playing very well but I think they will bounce back from that awful loss to Detroit. Tony Romo has come back down to earth with a thud but I think the Cowboys can run well enough to set up their passing game, which should be effective due to the injuries to Seattle's defensive backfield. Like the Colts-KC game the question is, can they play good enough defense to outscore them? I think Parcells will have chewed out his guys enough to motivate them. They have ability in the secondary, the guys just aren't playing up to standard.

Chance the Seahawks cover the spread: 15% (10% of a push)
Chance the Seahawks win the game: 30%

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -9 new york jets
Jet fans have been going crazy but this matchup isn't even close. So you beat them once this year. The Patriots are a much better team in the playoffs than they are in the regular season. And they have more talent than the Jets. And they have Tom Brady. The Jets are very much a product of their schedule this season. Don't start sucking the Man-Genius' dick just yet.

Chance the Patriots cover the spread: 60% (1% of a push)
Chance the Patriots win the game: 95%

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 1/2 new york giants
The Giants have looked putrid lately. They have lost 6 of 8, and they are in total disarray. The star running back is retiring, the coach is getting fired and the quarterback of the future stinks right now. They also had a lot of injuries which precipitated their decline. And the Eagles are on fire. Jeff Garcia has been playing great, they are balancing their offense giving Westbrook a better, more consistent role, and they beat the Giants three weeks ago (not as easily as the score indicated though). But I invoke Pizza Parlor Derek's Notre Dame Corollary which states: "Do you ever despise a team so much that you’d never bet against them because you can’t foresee them ever getting blown out and winning you money at the same time?" when I say that I am very worried about a Giants revival. Still, I'm going with the smart money here.

Chance the Eagles will cover the spread: 45% (0 of a push)
Chance the Eagles will win the game: 68%