Weekly Picks

The new strategy unveiled last week helped me rebound with another good week. Through two weeks I've had 2 weeks of 4-1 (5 points) and 2 weeks of 1-4 (0 points). That makes me 10-10 overall and 2-2 on best bets. In gambling you can't break even by breaking even. We need two good weeks in a row to get this thing headed in the right direction. Lots of home favorites this week.

TENNESSEE -8 atlanta
I still think the Falcons suck, and they are coming off a big win last week. I definitely think the Falcons will lose this game, the question is by how much. 8 can be a tricky number. The Titans don't score a ton of points so they will probably need to keep the Falcons to 14 points or fewer. Tough call but I believe in Vince Young.

GREEN BAY -3 1/2 chicago
Four weeks is enough time. It's time to start believing what we see, instead of what we thought we knew. The Bears are a bad team with no running game and a bad quarterback. They also have a banged up defense. The Packers have a great defense and a great QB. My only fear is that this will be the game that the Bears defense comes after Favre and harrasses him into becoming that old gunslinger. But division game, at Lambeau on Sunday night, you'd think Favre would bring his A game for that one.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 new york jets
How did they figure out home field advantage for this one? If it's usually worth 3 points does that mean the Jets would be favored by 3 if they were the home team? Is there no home field because they share the Stadium? But don't the fans make up most of they call the homefield advantage? What's the advantage of the actual field, especially if the road team stays in their homes, uses their lockers, etc? Anyway, the quality of these two teams isn't even close. My only fear is that the Giants are coming off a huge win...and the Jets off a terrible loss.

dallas -10 BUFFALO
Dallas has scored more points than New England. No way the Bills win this game so I'm betting on a blowout versus a close game. I'll take that bet.

BEST BET
NEW ENGLAND -16 1/2 cleveland
I know this seems like a lot of points but I think you are actually getting a great deal on the Pats right now. They have won every game by 21+ points. They're at least 20 points better than the Browns. But if the spread were 20 the "smart" action, the guys with the money, would take the Browns, and make the action uneven. So in order to keep the dollars wagered even on both sides, you take New England and you give a couple points fewer than you really should.

Last week: 4-1 (5 points)
Season so far: 10-10 (10 points)
Best bet: 1-0 (2-2)
Home favorites: 1-0 (3-2)
Home underdogs: 1-0 (2-0)
Road favorites: 2-1 (4-5)
Road underdogs: 0-0 (1-3)