Weekly Picks

I was one gratuitous field goal by the Patriots away from another great week. Instead I had to settle for disappointment and a serious cooling down from my 4 week Patriots induced hot streak. This week I prepare to do battle without the Patriots and hope that I can make it on my own.

cleveland +9.5 PITTSBURGH
A lot of things are different since the last time these two teams played in Week 1. The biggest change is that the Browns replaced Charlie Frye with Derek Anderson and have been scoring points in bunches ever since. If you are ever going to take a team getting a lot of points, this has to be it. The fact that the Steelers killed the Ravens on Monday Night makes me like this one even more. I dismiss the short week thing but I think Monday night performances are always inflated because everyone saw them. Plus, the Ravens made so many turnovers the Steelers had no choice but to blow them out. I expect the Browns to take better care of the ball and keep this one close.

dallas -1 NEW YORK GIANTS
These two teams are also reprising their matchup from Week 1 when 80 points were scored in a 45-35 Dallas win. Similar to Cleveland though, the Giants have turned their season around by playing much better defense. However, I really think the Cowboys are the best team in the NFC and if they were the team who had the Patriots in Week 17, instead of Week 6, they could be undefeated right now. The spread is only 1 so it's basically a pick em game and though it's in the Meadowlands and I hate picking against the Giants because I will be doubly pissed if they win, I think the Cowboys are going to win this game. The only potential flaw in this plan is that Master Bates gave up his ticket to this game, turning a guaranteed loss into something much less certain. For five straight weeks, I've lost the game that was the second one down on this list of picks.

detroit +1 ARIZONA
Another road team and another very small spread. The Lions are 6-2 with their losses coming in huge blowouts to the Redskins (34-3) and Eagles (56-21). The Lions defense played great last week against Denver and if they can keep that up against Kurt Warner they should be able to force him into turnovers. I really wanted to make this game my best bet, but I don't like to change my selections after I put them down. Also, the game I've chosen in this third slot has been a winner for 6 straight weeks.

SAN DIEGO +3 1/2 indianapolis
This is why they call it gambling. I know I've gotten killed by the Chargers twice this year, once against the Chiefs (which knocked me out of espn.com's eliminator pool) and last week against the Vikings but I still believe in them. I usually don't pick an underdog unless I'm more than 50% sure they are going to win the game. But I am going against the philosophy twice this week and hoping the Chargers at the worst case, lose by a field goal.

BEST BET
buffalo -3 MIAMI
I love the Bills this season because they got killed twice by the Steelers and Patriots and covered in their other 6 games. They should have beaten the Broncos and Cowboys and been 6-2 right now. If that were the case they'd be giving 7, not 3. Still I worry about a push in this situation. I also worry because I think this pick is a little too obvious. But I have heard enough people say this is the week the Dolphins will get their first win so it appears not everyone is banking on the Bills. Hopefully Lynch and Evans can carry the Bills to at least 21 points because I don't think the Dolphins can score that many.

Last week: 3-2 (2 points)
Season so far: 25-20 (28 points - tied for 4th, 3 points out of 1st)
Best bet: 0-1 (6-3)
Home favorites: 1-0 (10-5)
Home underdogs: 0-0 (2-0)
Road favorites: 1-1 (11-9)
Road underdogs: 1-1 (2-6)