Weekly Picks

I had a winning week for the 5th straight week (16-9 over that stretch), but I pushed on my best bet, a huge setback. Thankfully some of my closest competitors did worse so I didn't lose much ground. The Patriots are back and I'm counting on them to cover at least 5 spreads in the last 7 games of the season.

san diego +3 JACKSONVILLE
Sometimes you need to be wary of spreads you don't understand. I can see why this looks like a trap game for the Chargers. They just got a huge victory at home. Jacksonville is getting David Garrard back. That may not sound like much but compared to the play of Quinn Gray that will make a world of difference. I have continued to overrate San Diego all year and been let down several times by them failing to play up to their abilities. But I will try it one more time.

PHILADELPHIA -10 1/2 miami
This is a no-brainer. The Dolphins have given up. Maybe John Beck will be better than Cleo Lemon, but Lemon at least kept some games close (back to back 13-10 losses). The Eagles still have something to play for after last week's win over the Redskins and I can see Donovan McNabb having a huge day.

pittsburgh -9 NEW YORK JETS
The second best team in the NFL versus the second worst team. I don't care where this game is played or how much the spread is the Steelers are going to win by 3 touchdowns.

new york giants -2 1/2 DETROIT
Two teams play, one is clearly better than the other, the spread is fewer than 3 points. Pick the better team. Sorry, but it's a personal rule.

BEST BET
new england -15 1/2 BUFFALO
After two weeks off from kicking everyone's ass I expect a return to offensive explosiveness. Picking three big spreads worries me a little, but I'll take 2 of 3 as long as the one loss isn't this one.

Last Week: 3-2 (2 points)
Season so far: 28-22 (30 points - tied for 4th, 5 points out of 1st)
Best bet: 0-1 (6-4)
Home favorites: 0-0 (10-5)
Home underdogs: 1-0 (3-0)
Road favorites: 1-1 (12-10)
Road underdogs: 1-1 (3-7)