Weekly Picks

UPDATE: Due to inclement weather and Phil Simms scaring me by saying New England wouldn't be able to throw the ball at all because of wind and rain, I have decided to switch my best bet from New England to Indianapolis.

I got back on the horse with the Patriots despite much consternation and thanks to a foolish TD by Jamal Lewis I was able to post 4 points last week. I didn't improve my position much though, but I did separate myself from some stragglers. The key to winning this for anyone in the top 10 right now will be to put together a long string of correct best bets. I'm hoping to get 2 more out of the Pats, then figure out something for Week 17 and the first week of the playoffs. But that's getting ahead of myself. For now this journey begins with 5 tiny steps.

baltimore -3 MIAMI
I think this Ravens team is too prideful to be the one the Dolphins beat. Yes, their defense got smoked last week by the Colts, but Cleo Lemon is no Peyton Manning. The possibility of a push exists here but I'm not going to worry about that.

ST. LOUIS +9 1/2 green bay
Mark Bulger is expected to start and the Rams are a much more dangerous team with him in there. I'm not supremely confident in this game but there aren't many choices I like better. The Packers have been excellent this season and really haven't played a stinker yet. With their motivation decreasing this could be a game they win 28-20.

chicago +9 1/2 MINNESOTA
When did the Vikings join the class of the Patriots and Colts? Yes, they have a strong running game but as far as I can tell Tarvaris Jackson is starting at quarterback for them. I know this spread is so high because Kyle Orton is starting for the Bears but he was a winner in his first stint as Bears QB. I know their defense played better back then but I still think the Bears D can stop the run and force Jackson to beat them throwing the ball. They call it gambling for a reason but taking the points here is a smart bet.

NEW ENGLAND -24 1/2 new york jets
I am not taking this game because I think Belichick wants to put 70 up on his former friend. I am taking it because the talent disparity between the teams is about 38 points. I wish it were 23 1/2 instead because I can envision a 41-17 affair, but I have to roll with the Patriots because I think they will pound the Jets.

BEST BET
indianapolis -10 1/2 OAKLAND
Here's the situation, one of the 3 best teams in the league vs. one of the 3 worst teams in the league. Oakland is starting a QB for the first time. The spread is big, but not Patriots big. I will take this scenario every time. I won't win it every time, but I will win it a lot.


Last Week: 3-2 (4 points)
Season so far: 40-30 (42 points - T-5th, 3 points out of 1st)
Best bet: 1-0 (8-6)
Home favorites: 2-0 (17-7)
Home underdogs: 0-0 (3-0)
Road favorites: 1-2 (17-14)
Road underdogs: 0-0 (3-8)
Pick em: 0-0 (0-1)