Weekly Picks

It's real simple this week, I blew it last week so I'm out of money position for the time in 10 weeks. I have zero chance at first, almost zero at second and very unlikely third. But if I can be near perfect in the playoffs I can cash. A lot of the games this week are tough to call.

SEATTLE -3 1/2 washington
I never pick the Redskins.

PITTSBURGH +1 1/2 jacksonville
Tons of reasons to love Jacksonville here. They already beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, Willie Parker is hurt, Garrard is mistake-free, their defense is better. But there are a couple of reasons to go against that conventional wisdom. If you are going to lose anyone on your team running back is usually the easiest to replace and I think Davenport can approximate Parker's production. First time starting quarterbacks in the playoffs have a terrible record, so even though Garrard has been great, and won't be counted on to win this one, that worries me a little. But most important, it seems too obvious to pick Jacksonville here.

new york giants +3 TAMPA BAY
This game is going to be a referendum on late season strategies. Staying sharp vs. staying healthy. While I think the Bucs approach is better over many trials I'm still picking against them because as I frequently say, the most important factor in winning games is talent. And the Giants have more of it. The Bucs are like a lion in the jungle, they couldn't outrun all the gazelles, but they outran the slowest ones often enough to survive. Which means they beat bad teams and lost to good ones. Also, I think Eli Manning might finally break through. Remember he's been to the playoffs every season he was the full-time starter. Given enough tries, everyone breaks through, even Mannings.

BEST BET
SAN DIEGO -8 1/2 tennessee
The Chargers have burned me so many times but I'm not sure enough about the other two games (I wouldn't make Seattle my best bet) to pick them. So I'm hoping they get their act together and blow out a vastly inferior and injured team. Also, every weekend usually has one blowout.