McCain's Only Hope

There's a phenomenon in politics called "The Bradley Effect" which was created to explain why black candidates tend to do much better in polls than they actually do in elections.
It was so named for Tom Bradley who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election despite holding a big lead in the polls. White voters went for Bradley in much lower numbers than polling projected. And undecided voters went for Bradley's opponent (George Deukmejian) in unusually high numbers.
That led people to theorize that white people were embarrassed to tell pollsters they weren't voting for the black guy. And thus, the Bradley Effect was born.
Similar trends have been evidenced in other political races, leading some people to believe it could be at work in this Presidential election.
But I think times have changed and people's racial attitudes have changed as well.
A recent poll showed that in 1958, 58% of voters said they wouldn't vote for black president, while now only 5% say that.
I expect Obama to win this election but I think it will be by a much smaller margin than current polls are projecting. I think the Bradley Effect will have some impact but more importantly, historically, black people do not vote in as high numbers as white people. But that could change now that they could very well be voting for the first black President.