My Super Bowl Prediction

Arizona Cardinals +7 Pittsburgh Steelers
Defense wins championships. That old axiom has governed the NFL for years, and it is true to an extent. A good defense can usually stop a good offense. And a mediocre offense can score on a mediocre or weak defense.
And I usually dismiss the theory of the "hot" team even though we have seen it play out several times over the past few years.
And lastly, when underdogs cover, they win 75% of the time. So picking an underdog with the points, but to lose the game is a very unlikely proposition.

But I'm pretty much ignoring all that and predicting a final score of Super Bowl XLIII of Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Arizona Cardinals 21.

I don't automatically think the Steelers are going to shut down the Cardinals, because I think the Cardinals have the right kind of offense to attack the Steelers aggressive defense. I don't think the Steelers (or anyone for that matter) can stop Larry Fitzgerald, so they either commit to guys, or give up a couple of big plays. I think the Cardinals can spread the field with 3 wide receivers then attack the 3-4 with their new, improved running game.

I dismiss the hot team thing because to get to the Super Bowl both teams need to be hot. But in this case the Cardinals haven't just shown improved play, they've shown and improved "style" of play, which makes them more stout on defense then they had been, at least over the last 6 regular season games.

And I'm throwing out my last line of thinking (which says underdogs cover and lose about 12% of the time -- using rudimentary math) because I think the Steelers are just the better team and I think Ben Roethlisberger is going to be able to play the type of mistake-free ball that's needed to win a big game.

After a long string of blowout Super Bowls through the 80s and 90s, we've recently been blessed with some great games, and I think this will be another entertaining, close game, with the Steelers winning by 6, to take their 6th Super Bowl title.