Paulo's Book Club: "Fooled by Randomness"

A funny thing about life, two people can look at the same thing, and see it completely differently. And that's why I didn't like "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassem Nicholas Taleb.

The book explores the "Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets," something I often think about.

But here's the difference, I look at the strange things that happen and see the Universe, Taleb sees randomness.



The book is interesting because Taleb provides a great many thought experiments to prove his points but his thinking a little rigid, and he overuses ancient philosophers.

One of Taleb's main point is about the "black swan." He theorizes, correctly, that seeing a million white swans, doesn't prove that all swans are white, but seeing only one black swan, disproves that theory.

The Black Swan (another of Taleb's books) is the name for an unexpected event. He used the black swan theory to say that basically none of the traders on Wall Street have any idea what they are doing. They just do what everyone else is doing, and through pure luck, avoid the black swan. But when the black swan comes, the explode, and explode spectactularly, a theory that seems to fit and even the foretell the current economic crisis.

Although I disagree with Taleb's cynicism, many of you who think my Universe talk is crazy might enjoy his take. Hell, he may even be right. But my way is much more fun.