For many people the most fun part of the NCAA Tournament is filling out the bracket and rooting for the alma mater of your sister's husband, cute girl at work or in the case of at least one Poophead, your favorite blogger.
For me my favorite part is watching the games.
But second is picking those sleepers that screw up everyone else's bracket but make yours. And I'm not just talking first round. There is almost always a 2-seed losing in the second round. And except for 2008 we often get a Final Four team most people didn't expect.
First round:
Almost every year a 13 seed beats a 4 and this year the trendy pick is Siena. They won first round games two straight years and now they draw a depleted Purdue team playing without Robbie Hummel. But people forget all season Purdue was great, not because of one player but because of a balanced lineup. Also Siena is different this year. In four games against top 50 teams they lost all four. So don't pick Siena, no matter what Jems tells you. If a 4 does go down it'll be Vanderbilt.
Every year (except maybe once) a 12 seed beat a 5. And no matter what Master Bates and Papa Poop have been telling me for 20 years, it will happen again this year and I've got at least a 25% chance of getting it right.
This year's trendy pick is Cornell. And though I hate going along with this crowd the trend says trendy upset picks do pretty well. But styles make fights and this isn't a good matchup for Cornell. They could upset a major conference team with a lot of athleticism if they could slow down that team, frustrate them and get open shots against an undisciplined defense. Temple is a little too tough and aggressive on D to fall for that.
So give me UTEP over Butler though I could see Utah State over Texas A&M. Both schools were great all year and stumbled in their conference tournaments. I'm a little disappointed all the 12s are small conference teams, I usually like a tested BCS school.
And I guess I need an 11 over a 6 as well. The Big East has two 6s (Notre Dame and Marquette) and I like both those teams and I think Minnesota shot its load in the Big 10 tournament. So that leaves me with San Diego State over Tennessee. I think Tennessee is ripe for an upset because they had huge highs (wins over Kansas and Kentucky) but also losses to sub-100 teams (USC & Georgia) and they got blown out by Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. They may finally be petering out after taking a huge talent hit when Tyler Smith got kicked off the team.
Second round:
If you are judging this by the strength of the underdog you might be inclined to take Oklahoma State over Ohio State. But I think Evan Turner is just too good for that. I am say it will be Villanova that suffers the early knockout to Richmond.
I'm also going to knock out a 3 seed in the second round, predicting Marquette will beat New Mexico.
Beyond:
I do have a sleeper Final Four team but I am holding off on unveiling that until Thuesday morning.
Siena will run them up and down the court and they won't be able to keep up. Purdue isn't built for Siena's style. Plus they have a suffocating defense and will employ a 3/4 press most of the game. You're going to see Purdue get the ball stolen from them repeatedly. I actually see this one as a blowout in Siena's favor, similar to the way they handled Vanderbilt 2 years ago.
ReplyDeleteBTW-Kenny Hasbrouck just signed with the Heat today. :-)
Siena lost those 4 on the road. Purdue would have been one of my Final Four picks until Hummel went down.
ReplyDeleteI have Whales Vagina State and Richmond beating Nova.
I think there are going to be some fun games. I'm still not feeling any big upsets/Cinderellas yet. I think SU will be the first 1 seed to lose.
I also like Richmond over Nova and UTEP over Butler. Duke got so lucky getting by far the weakest bracket. I think they are the weakest of the #1 seeds but I don't see them losing until the final 4.
ReplyDeletei don't disagree that a 12 may upset a 5. But 20 years of history says you haven't picked the right 12 seed yet, so you get two 12/5 matchups wrong every year. But who knows, maybe this is your year. Best of luck to you.
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