Saturday, February 04, 2012

Super Bowl Prop Bets

Team to Gain the First First Down of the Game
The Patriots have this odd habit of choosing to defer when they win the coin toss, they have done this in every game for 4 straight years. If the Giants win, I expect them to take the ball. Therefore I love the Giants to be the first team to make a first down.
Bet $1250 to win $1000
This was like stealing. Easy money
Profit/loss: +1000


Will the Game Be Tied After 0-0
I expect this game to be close and back and forth so I think it will be tied, at 7-7.
Bet $130 to win $100
9-9 doesn’t count. It had to be tied after a conversion.
Profit/loss: +870


Total Receiving Yards by Victor Cruz
I think Manning has a lot of comfort with Cruz and Cruz should be able to get open, and past the weak New England secondary. I like him to record more than 88 1/2 yards.
Bet $110 to win $100
Cruz only got 25 yards. Patriots were determined to let someone else beat them. Nicks and Manningham combined for 182 yards.
Profit/loss: +760


TD Passes by Tom Brady
I'm betting this game on the theory that the Giants will be able to get to Brady and make him uncomfortable. Even if they don't, 3 TDs could be a lot. I like under 2 1/2.
Bet $100 to win $110
Only 2 TDs for Brady
Profit/loss: +870


Will Rob Gronkowski Score a TD?
I'm also going to wager based on Gronk's injury being real and a hindrance to his performance. Even if he were healthy, I'd predict him catching a touchdown is no better than 50/50. So I'll no to this one.
Bet $100 to win $125
Gronkowski really was hurt, you could see it in his play.
Profit/loss: +995


Total Receiving Yards By Aaron Hernandez
This doesn't include running yards he may accumulate out of the backfield. But I still like his chances with Gronk being hurt, to get more than 67 1/2 yards.
Bet $125 to win $100
I can’t fuckin believe this. 67 yards. Ooooh that hurts.
Profit/loss: +870


Margin of Victory
I do think this will be a close lower-scoring game than most people think. But there are still chances the winning could put some late points on the board to make it seem worse than it is. Even though I don't think this will be the case, I like the Giants to win by 13-18 points at 8 to 1 odds.
Bet $100 to win $800

Profit/loss: +770

Tom Brady Passing Yards
This is tricky because if the Patriots are losing they will be throwing all over the field. But if you pick anything over 250 yards your odds are too slim to make it worthwhile. Again, if I were predicting I'd say 300 or more, but I like the price of 200-249 at 7 to 2 odds.
Bet $100 to win $350
Brady finished with 276, but I think the odds on that were 5 to 4, not worth the risk.
Profit/loss: +670


Final Score
I like the Giants to score 24 points at 8 to 1
Bet $100 to win $800
Patriots to score 21
Bet $100 to win $1200

Profit/loss: +470

Now onto some looser props from Bodog
Super Bowl MVP
I think the Giants have a better than 50% chance of winning this game. And I view it as almost impossible that Eli doesn't win the MVP if that's the case. So I'll take him at 9 to 4 odds.
Bet $120 to win $270
Glad I got this one right.
Profit/loss: +740


Just for fun I also like Jason Pierre-Paul at 25 to 1
Bet $10 to win $250

Profit/loss: +730

National Anthem
A staple of Super Bowl betting. Seems like the oddsmakers view Kelly Clarkson as a no-nonsense kind of girl. I agree, but a minute and 34 seconds is too short. Take the over.
Bet $110 to win $100

Apparently this one was so close you had people rewinding their DVRs. It was literally a half-second above 1:34.
Profit/loss: +830


How Many Viewers
The line on this 117 million. That would smash the record which I believe is 111. I think people are hyped for this game and I think a close finish will put this game over the top.
Bet $140 to win $100

The game did set a record, but at just over 111 million. I still can’t understand what 200 million people were doing Sunday night if they weren’t watching the game.
Profit/loss: +690


What Will Happen with the Dow Jones on Monday
We've been in a pretty steady rally mode lately. I think it continues on Monday. I pick the Dow goes up.
Bet $140 to win $100

Down 17 points
Profit/loss: +550


What Color Gatorade?
Another bet I like to do each year, just for fun. This year I'm picking orange at 5 to 2.
Bet $20 to win $50.
Mrs. Poop says it was purple.
Profit/loss: +530


Chad Ochocinco Receptions
I could totally seem them doing something crazy with him and putting him out there. But seeing as how he hardly ever plays, I'm going to say zero catches (under 1/2)
Bet $100 to win $135
He actually caught one. I was shocked.
Profit/loss: +430 (not bad, though I tanked after winning that first fictional bet for $1000)

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