Weekly Picks

I've had so many 3-2 weeks this season, which is good especially under this format as I'm hitting 75% of my best bets, but I know I can do better. I'm making my picks early this week because I'm going with 2 Thanksgiving Day games. I wantd to make it all 3 but there are better choices than the Cowboys giving 13.

arizona +3 PHILADELPHIA
This looks like the classic trap game where a spread looks so out of whack that it draws you in and you get caught in its trap. But this is different. Here's why, the Cardinals are really good and the Eagles are pretty bad. The Cardinals are coming off a loss (which I like) but it was to the Giants, the best team in the NFL. The Cardinals can put a lot of points on the board, and the Eagles can't. The problems with the Eagles run a lot deeper than just Donovan McNabb. Look at the stats, he was having a pretty decent year until the last two weeks. But it's not all his fault, the offensive line hasn't been doing well, they can't run block or pass protect. And the play calling has put too much pressure on McNabb. And speaking of pressure on McNabb, the fans are going to boo him lustily from the first incomplete pass. Here's what happened with McNabb in Philly. The idiot fans booed him on draft day and even though they were dead wrong they never admitted it. And he always gave them just enough ammunition so they could say "see, I knew he was never going to be any good." Instead of giving the guy a chance, they've run him out of town.
Oh and one more reason I'm taking this game. I think this spread is partially based on this stat that no western time zone teams have won in the eastern time zone so far this year. But that's because teams from the West suck this year. You're talking about the 49ers, Seahawks and Raiders. That's why they're losing, not the time difference.

atlanta +5 SAN DIEGO
One of my rules of betting is to believe what you see, not what you believe. Sure we all thought at the beginning of the season that the Falcons suck and the Chargers are loaded with talent. But what matters is the way they are playing. And consistently this season the Falcons have shown themselves to be a good team and the Chargers have played like a bad one. I do fear the trap aspect of this spread and the fact that the Falcons are coming off a big win and the Chargers are off a tough loss, but with 5 points, I'll take my chances.

TAMPA BAY -3 1/2 new orleans
At various points this season New Orleans's record has been 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 and 5-5. That trend should continue as they fall to 6-6. Another of my rules is to be wary of teams coming off great performances on Monday Night. They tend to get overrated because everyone is watching. A good defensive team should be able to slow down the Saints offense.

indianapolis -4 1/2 CLEVELAND
After a false start earlier this year I now believe the Colts are back. And there's a reason Derek Anderson was benched for Brady Quinn. He makes too many mistakes. And if you give Peyton Manning extra possessions he will make you pay.

BEST BET
tennessee -11 DETROIT
They couldn't have made this spread big enough for me. I'd give 27 here. I really think the Titans are pissed off and they are going to come out and pound the Lions. I haven't been this confident about a game in a really long time. I just don't see any way the Lions keep this game close. Unless they are down 27, score a late touchdown, get the 2-point conversion, recover an onside kick and get another TD and 2-pointer to make it 11, against the Titans backup defense. Barring that, the Titans pound them by 30.

Last week: 3-2 (4 points)
Season: 33-27 (39 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (9-3)
Home Favorites: 0-1 (9-12)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-1)
Road Favorites: 2-0 (15-5)
Road Underdogs: 0-1 (6-8)
Road Pickems: 1-0 (1-1)