Song of the Week

"Silent Night" - The Temptations

A Boy and His Dog

The loss of Diesel has been hard on every member of the family and the kids have dealt with it, in their own way, befitting their normal personalities.

Chase was sweet, saying when he is sad he goes and lays with Diesel who makes him feel better.
He is old enough to understand the permanence and gravity of the situation but young enough that he doesn't quite know what to do with these feelings.

Even in his darkest hour, Julian can't help but be hilarious.
At first when we told him we were putting Diesel to sleep, he didn't seem to understand, thinking we would be able to go to the vet and pick him up when he woke up.
Once we explained that we would never ever be able to see Diesel again, he really freaked out, punching a pillow and shrieking.
When he finally calmed down he asked "Einstein and God invented everything right?"
We said "mostly God, but yes."
"Why did they invent dying?"
We didn't have a good answer for that.

Then we tried to explain that everything dies, pets, people. "and the dinosaurs!"

Lastly he wondered why "can't we make a robotic dog, with real dog fur, and we can reprogram him to not die."

Despite all this, I think the boys are taking it well. They grasp it now. They understand it's serious. They were appropriately sad, but not overly so.

But no matter where they go and what they do in life, Diesel will always be their first pet.

And nothing can compare to the love between a boy and his dog.

Diesel 11 (77)

Diesel, 11 (77), of Fair Lawn, NJ died Thursday, December 10th, under the loving care of the veterinarians at Valley Brook Veterinary Hospital, after a brief battle with cancer.
Diesel, an energetic, loving, black Labrador Retriever, enjoyed long walks in the park, chasing tennis balls (and rabbits and squirrels, too), laying in the sunlight and swimming in the ocean.
A lifelong Mets fan, Diesel was known to get incredibly excited every time he heard those magic words, "Mets win."
Diesel is survived by his parents, Paul and Kate, his brothers, Chase and Julian and a long list of adoring grandparents, aunts, uncles and cousins.
In lieu of flowers, please pet the next dog that you see. Especially if it is your own.

Weekly Picks

Yikes!

ST.LOUIS -3 detroit

TAMPA BAY -4 1/2 new orleans

indianapolis +1 JACKSONVILLE

new england -3 1/2 HOUSTON

BEST BET
CAROLINA -8 atlanta

Last week: 0-5 (-1 points)
Season: 33-32 (30 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (5-8)
Home Favorites: 0-2 (10-14)
Home Underdogs: 0-1 (1-2)
Road Favorites: 0-0 (14-11)
Road Underdogs: 0-2 (8-5)

Song of the Week

"Chanukah Song Part 4" - Adam Sandler
"We may not have a cartoon with a reindeer that can talk
But we also don’t have polio, thanks to Dr. Jonas Salk (smart Jew!)"

Weekly Picks

I hope everyone took that Panthers-Cowboys game to the bank. Worst spread I've seen in my life. I'm going to try a strategy I seldom employ, but I like a lot of the underdogs.

houston +3 BUFFALO
Houston might be the better team right now. Their defense is playing amazing. But there has been heavy action on Houston since the open of the line, moving the spread by three points.

MIAMI -3 1/2 baltimore
This game is the same story, but in this case I like the favorite. I can't figure why people think Baltimore is so good when they needed a miracle to beat the miserable Browns.

ST. LOUIS +6 arizona
I have loved the Cardinals all year but I just have a feeling they won't blow out the Rams.

indianapolis +7 PITTSBURGH
The Colts are undefeated with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. He doesn't throw interceptions or make mistakes. That should be enough to keep this game close even though Roethlisberger is expected to play.

BEST BET
NEW ENGLAND -9 philadelphia
Very good team at home versus very bad team. I haven't done too well with big spreads this season but that doesn't mean I should be afraid.

Last week: 3-2 (4 points)
Season: 33-27 (31 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (5-7)
Home Favorites: 0-1 (10-12)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (1-1)
Road Favorites: 2-0 (14-11)
Road Underdogs: 1-1 (8-3)

Pour Out a Little Orange Juice

Actor Robert Loggia died at the age of 85.
Loggia is known for his many film roles, but is most remembered for encouraging a generation of kids to drink orange juice.


We should also note that Mr. Loggia is from Staten Island. He went to New Dorp High School and Wagner College.

Mets Offseason Plans

The Mets should sign Ben Zobrist. They should give him the 4th year, and pay up to $80M if they have to.


Here's why:
He's a great player. His last six full seasons he had a WAR above 5 in 5 of them. That's outstanding, MVP-level production.
He's exactly what the Mets need. He's a good contact, high on-base guy who could and should bat second for the Mets.
He can play several positions, including the Mets biggest need (second base), but he can also play third base to give Wright a rest, and the outfield to give Conforto and maybe Granderson a day off against tough lefties.

But Paul...
He's old. Yes, he's 34 now and would be 38 by the end of a 4-year contract. But his skills, on-base, versatility, are not skills that erode as quickly with age. Though his drop-off in defense last season is concerning, he has always been a great defender.
Shouldn't a $15-$20 million a year man hit home runs? No! Didn't you watch the playoffs? The game is changing. The Mets are built around pitching and defense. They play in a big park and they need to tailor their offense to it as well. Contact hitters who can reach base are what the Mets need.
Don't you hate paying a lot of money for free agents? No! The efficacy of spending money on free agents, especially older ones, is entirely dependent on where your team is on the win curve. If your team is likely to win fewer than 80 games, it's unlikely one player would make any difference. Even improving from 80 to 85 wins accomplishes basically nothing, you still miss the playoffs. But the Mets were so close to winning it all last year, that one player could make a huge difference. And that's why the time to spend is now.

Other possibilities:
Jason Heyward:
Great player. Fantastic. Some team will likely give him $200 million over 10 years, and they will probably be happy to do so, and the deal will work out. But I just don't think that's the best option for the Mets, because I think Conforto, Lagares, Granderson is a good enough outfield.

If somehow the Mets did get Jason Heyward, I wouldn't object, I just can't see it happening.
Carlos Gonzalez:
I heard talk about the Mets trading Matz and Nimmo for him. That is absolutely insane. In three of the past four seasons he was 760 OPS or worse on the road. And CitiField is worse than the average park. Plus, he's frequently hurt.

Ian Desmond:
From 2012-2014 he had a WAR of 4 or better in each season. That's great. For a shortstop. Sign him up. But he fell to 1.7 last year. Would you really want to spend $60 million over 4 years on a guy who wasn't better than Wilmer Flores in 2015? Wouldn't the extra $15 or $20 million be better spent on Zobrist?

Dexter Fowler:
This is exactly the type of player the Mets should not go after. Last year was the best year of his career. Before this season he had never been higher than 2.3 in WAR. In his 2 non-Colorado years his OPS was 774 and 757. Which is fine, but not so much better that its worth the downside, which is taking away playing time from developing young players like Juan Lagares, Michael Conforto and eventually Brandon Nimmo.

Denard Span:
Similar thoughts apply to Denard Span, except his is a better player than Fowler (though they are fairly similar) but he is recovering from an injury. The Mets haven't had too much luck with injured players on the wrong side of 30.

Relievers:
The Mets need a couple but I am not really sure who is available and at what price. But I think they really need to sign a couple of hard-throwers.

Bottom Line:

The Mets need to spend responsibly and deploy their resources (money) where it will have the most impact, ie filling the biggest areas of need. The Mets must resist the temptation to spend a lot of money to make minor improvements over their existing players (at first base and in centerfield). I want the Mets to sign Zobrist and a couple of relief pitchers for around $100 million, or $30 million per year, roughly the salary that is coming off the books anyway.

These young Mets proved they were championship caliber last season and now is the time to make practical improvements to make the 2016 Mets a serious World title contender without impacting their ability to add and develop more young players to help the Mets win in 2017 and beyond.

Song of the Week

"Moondance" - Van Morrison

Mets Roster Evaluation

The Mets are ready. After a long, painful teardown and a frustrating rebuild, the 2015 Mets made the World Series, and could have been champions with a little bit better play.
2016 is the year the Mets make the transition from building to winning. They are on the correct side of the win curve to start to add players who can provide a couple of wins that will push the Mets over the top from playoff contender to World Series champion.
But the Mets must also remember they have a fantastic young core, and they should make moves designed to help the team this season -- and beyond -- without blocking young players and the contributions they can make.
I'll go through player by player with some comments:

Yoenis Cespedes:
Cannot be resigned. Had the best six weeks of his life then went ice cold and really hurt us in the World Series. Brain fart at end of Game 4 has been overlooked, but cost the Mets a decent chance to get back in that game. Look at his WAR season-by-season over four years in the majors: 2.9, 2.4, 3.3, 6.7. Weight runs created plus (100 is league average): 136, 102, 109, 135. He's a good hitter, great leftfielder, average centerfielder.
And again everything has to be looked at through the scope of what else can be done. Cespedes + Conforto with Lagares on the bench or Conforto and Lagares and $100M+, which scenario makes the Mets better.

Daniel Murphy:
I wouldn't hate resigning him but I think they have to let him walk. You cannot pay him based on the playoffs, because odds are he will never hit like that again. But he is a good hitter, a useful player and could still be valuable for three years around $40m.

Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard & Matt Harvey:
Should not be traded under any circumstances.

Steven Matz:
I wouldn't trade but could see including him in the right deal.

Zach Wheeler:
I would not trade him coming off and injury and not ready to pitch until mid-season. No team in their right mind would give anything close to full value.

Lucas Duda:
I know he's frustrating. I know he played poorly in the playoffs and blew a key play. I agree there are better first basemen out there, but here's the problem: think about what you would need to give up in players and money to get a first baseman significantly better than Duda. Would the team be better off with just that one player or with Duda and whatever else had to be given up. I know it's abstract but let's try this. He's been a 3 win player each of the past two seasons. That's about average for a first baseman. When you get to 4+ WAR, you're getting into very good players who are very difficult to acquire. For better or worse, keeping Duda is the Mets best option.

Wilmer Flores:
Similar story here. Whichever position they elect to put Flores at he'll be league average or so. And think about how hard and expensive it is to get a shortstop above league average. As far as defense, according to the advanced stats he is better at second, but has great range for a shortstop. I would like to keep Flores and hope he continues to improve at the plate and in the field.

Ruben Tejada:
Should be a backup infielder. Sad he went out that way, but he just isn't good enough on offense and his defense is decent, barely above average.

David Wright:
He spent a lot of years suffering on lousy teams and he deserves to revel in glory now that the team has turned the corner. Let's hope his health will allow him to be a valuable contributor.

Travis d'Arnaud:
A budding superstar. He had the 6th-highest WAR among catchers in 2015. And he only played 67 games. If he plays a full schedule of 130 games, he could easily become the clear #2 to Buster Posey. I know that's a big if, but I think he's the Mets surest thing offensively going into 2016.

Kevin Plawecki:
He has potential. A backup catcher is important, especially behind d'Arnaud, but he is someone I would be willing to trade if a good reliever could be had.

Juan Lagares:
I love him. My favorite player on the Mets. He had a bad year. He looked a little heavy, a little slow and probably injured. And his defense and his hitting suffered. But in 2014, he was league average offensively and legendary on defense which translated into a 4.0 WAR, which is better than Yoenis Cespedes had in any of his first three full seasons in the majors. I think Lagares deserves another year to prove which player he truly is.

Michael Conforto:
Very promising young player. Should be a cornerstone of the Mets for years to come. The Mets should put him in left field and leave him alone.

Curtis Granderson:
1.6 WAR in 2013. 1.2 WAR in 2014. 5.1 WAR in 2015. Which Granderson will we get? If he continues to reach base and hit the way he did in 2015 he should be batting in the middle of the order.

Jeurys Familia:
Charged with 3 blown saves in the World Series but really only one was his fault. Great closer, unlikely to face those issues again.

Hansel Robles:
I like his arm. He needs to mature and not get rattled so easily.

Jerry Blevins:
I hope the Mets can bring him back.

Tyler Clippard:
I never want to see him in a Mets uniform again.

Addison Reed:
He's not terrible but I think the Mets can find better options.

Jon Niese:
Trade him if anyone is interested, if not, use him as 5th starter until Wheeler is healthy.

Bartolo Colon:
It was fun while it lasted, but it's time to move on.

Weekly Picks

One of the most frustrating weeks in the history of making these picks. A perfect 6 ripped away from us on a late score in the Monday Night game to get a push. And worse yet, it was our best bet, so we don't even have five points as a consolation. I continue to be at a loss to explain why we are consistently worse on best bets compared to other picks. 26-18 on regular picks and 4-7 on best bets. Amazing. This week we go after it early with all three Thanksgiving games.

minnesota +1 1/2 ATLANTA
The Vikings are good and the Falcons are terrible. They were 5-0, but in their last five games they're 1-4 with the one win being a squeaker against the Titans. Normally we like to go against the trends, but I don't see this one reversing itself.

oakland -1 1/2 TENNESSEE
What happened to the Raiders? Everyone thought they were so great, I wasn't convinced. Then I started to believe and they started to shit the bed. But I think they can win this game on the road.

philadelphia +2 DETROIT
When the world is ending and the morons on Philadelphia sports radio are getting feisty, that's when we know the pendulum has swung too far. The Eagles will bounce back, the Lions aren't good.

GREEN BAY -8 chicago
After a momentary lapse the Packers are back to normal. And after a couple amazing performances from Jay Cutler, all of Chicago thinks he sucks again.

BEST BET
carolina -1 1/2 DALLAS
The worst spread I have seen in all the years we have been doing this. People seem to think Tony Romo is so great because they lost every game without him. He is good, but the reason they lost all those games is because the replacements were so bad. If the Panthers were going to have a let down (which I don't expect) all the Romo Thanksgiving hype should eliminate that.

Last week: 4-1 (3 points)
Season: 30-25 (27 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (4-7)
Home Favorites: 1-1 (10-11)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (1-1)
Road Favorites: 1-0 (12-11)
Road Underdogs: 2-0 (7-2)

Song of the Week

"Be Thankful For What You Got" - William DeVaughn

Rights and Wrongs about 2015

Evaluating where I was right and wrong in my opinions about the 2015 Mets:

I was wrong about one major thing: I thought the Nationals were good. They sucked.

Here's what I was right about:
Getting Cespedes was a good trade. He was exactly what the Mets needed at that time.
Every other trade was bad. Yes Juan Uribe did well in certain spots. Kelly Johnson was awful. Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed helped in the regular season but were generally too unreliable to be trusted. Eric O'Flaherty sucked.
The Flores and Wheeler for Gomez trade would have been a disaster.

And most of all, it was way too early in the cycle for the Mets to go that hard after a title.
Remember, mathematically, after the July 30th disaster the Mets had only a 22% chance of making the playoffs. Even if Cespedes put them even with the Nats, they were still a huge dog to win the World Series, not the kind of odds you should max out for.
And before you say most of the players given up (except for Clippard and Cespedes) were useless, remember, if they could bring back something of value this year, they could do the same next year.
The Mets gave up 11 or so pitching prospects this season. That will surely come back to bite them at some point down the road.

Also remember, what happened after July 31st was the absolute peak of what could have been expected, it wasn't a fait accompli, get Cespedes make the World Series.
If the Nats hadn't folded the Mets might not have even made the playoffs. And if not for a few breaks against the Dodgers, they could have been out in the first round.

The Mets have followed the formula for sustained excellence: draft and develop good young players, especially pitchers.
They should not have sacrificed all that for a <50% chance to make the playoffs. Hopefully, this magical run to the World Series will be the beginning of a long sustained period of success, not a momentary glimpse of fleeting happiness.

Weekly Picks

Another lousy week as a good season is going downhill in a hurry.

CAROLINA -7 washington
I can't believe I am doing this again. Picking against the Redskins for the third week in a row. But I really think the Redskins are very bad and can't believe people actually think they have a chance to knock off the undefeated Panthers.

green bay +1 MINNESOTA
Can the Packers really have become this bad this quickly?

tampa bay +6 PHILADELPHIA
Same rationale as last week. The Eagles are too bad to give up this many points.

denver -1 CHICAGO
Backup QB theory. Everyone is freaking out about Brock Osweiler. I think he will do better than most people think.

BEST BET
NEW ENGLAND -7 buffalo
The Patriots are the best team in the NFL. They had a squeaker last week. That won't happen again.

Last week: 2-3 (1 point)
Season: 26-24 (24 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (4-6)
Home Favorites: 0-2 (9-10)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (1-1)
Road Favorites: 1-1 (11-11)
Road Underdogs: 1-0 (5-2)

Where Was Michael Vick?

Pennsylvania authorities say Oakland Raiders linebacker Ray-Ray Armstrong did not act maliciously when he confronted a police dog just before the start of a Nov. 8 game in Pittsburgh against the Steelers.

Investigators had been trying to determine whether the player's conduct constituted taunting of a police dog, a third-degree felony.

The sheriff's office has said the player lifted his shirt, beat his chest and barked at the explosive-detecting dog before telling a deputy to release the animal, which she did not.

The sheriff and prosecutor have agreed that the player's behavior was not a malicious act but still created an unnecessary security risk. The dog had to be taken out of service after the incident.

Poor Diesel

A French police dog named Diesel was killed in the raid on an apartment in a suburb north of Paris.

Diesel is a 7-year-old Belgian Mallinois. The breed is similar to German Shepherd but more athletic. It is the preferred police dog throughout Europe and a breed I would love to own someday.

Song of the Week

"The Fire" - The Roots featuring John Legend

Not Doing Anything To Disprove the Stereotypes

Some Jewish women are protesting Nordstrom's zany Hanukkah sweater that says "chai maintenance" and "Hanukkah J.A.P." forcing the store to stop selling it.

With all the more important things going on in the world, shouldn't we stop being outraged over mostly accurate stereotypes?

Weekly Picks

Only my beloved Redskins kept me from going -1 last week. A promising start to the season has turned sour in the last two weeks, let's see if we can turn it around.

carolina -5 TENNESSEE
Mariota is going to have his good games, he's going to have his bad games. I really don't see the Titans being the team to knock off the Panthers.

new orleans -1 WASHINGTON
I really hate doing this but the Redskins are very bad. Especially their pass defense. I expect Drew Brees to light up their secondary.

miami +6 PHILADELPHIA
So the Dolphins went from being terrible, to being great and totally remade by a new coach whose hard-nosed attitude turned the team around. Apparently Campbell's act has already worn thin. I'm not sure what to make of the Dolphins but I just think the Eagles are too bad to be giving this many points.

OAKLAND -3 minnesota
I've been skeptical about the Raiders and fully on the Vikings bandwagon, but I just feel like the Raiders coming off a loss and the Vikings coming in with a winning streak, this could be a game when things turn around.

BEST BET
GREEN BAY -10 1/2 detroit
I hate best bets giving this many points because of the crazy shit that can happen. But I love best bets that are good teams coming off losses. The Packers don't suck. Aaron Rodgers isn't bad all of the sudden. They just hit a rough spot and faced two undefeated really good teams in a row and lost them both, totally understandable. They will bounce back. They will win this game. But can they win by enough, that's the only question.

Last week: 1-4 (0 points)
Season: 24-21 (23 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (4-5)
Home Favorites: 1-3 (9-8)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (1-1)
Road Favorites: 0-0 (10-10)
Road Underdogs: 0-1 (4-2)

Song of the Week

"On My Way" - Axwell Λ Ingrosso
"No time to pretend
Dust off and try again."

If you watched ESPN's coverage of the World Series of Poker Main Event you've heard this song a couple (hundred) times.