My Super Bowl Prediction

Arizona Cardinals +7 Pittsburgh Steelers
Defense wins championships. That old axiom has governed the NFL for years, and it is true to an extent. A good defense can usually stop a good offense. And a mediocre offense can score on a mediocre or weak defense.
And I usually dismiss the theory of the "hot" team even though we have seen it play out several times over the past few years.
And lastly, when underdogs cover, they win 75% of the time. So picking an underdog with the points, but to lose the game is a very unlikely proposition.

But I'm pretty much ignoring all that and predicting a final score of Super Bowl XLIII of Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Arizona Cardinals 21.

I don't automatically think the Steelers are going to shut down the Cardinals, because I think the Cardinals have the right kind of offense to attack the Steelers aggressive defense. I don't think the Steelers (or anyone for that matter) can stop Larry Fitzgerald, so they either commit to guys, or give up a couple of big plays. I think the Cardinals can spread the field with 3 wide receivers then attack the 3-4 with their new, improved running game.

I dismiss the hot team thing because to get to the Super Bowl both teams need to be hot. But in this case the Cardinals haven't just shown improved play, they've shown and improved "style" of play, which makes them more stout on defense then they had been, at least over the last 6 regular season games.

And I'm throwing out my last line of thinking (which says underdogs cover and lose about 12% of the time -- using rudimentary math) because I think the Steelers are just the better team and I think Ben Roethlisberger is going to be able to play the type of mistake-free ball that's needed to win a big game.

After a long string of blowout Super Bowls through the 80s and 90s, we've recently been blessed with some great games, and I think this will be another entertaining, close game, with the Steelers winning by 6, to take their 6th Super Bowl title.

Weekly Picks

We bounced back from three bad weeks in a row thanks to a gutsy pick of the Cardinals. If I were in the pool this year I’d be in money position right now. But you make your name in the playoffs. And this is an interesting week with no spreads bigger than a field goal and three road favorites.

atlanta -2 ARIZONA
This is a styles makes fights pick. In the playoffs I’m going to go with the team with the better defense and running game over the passing team, even though the game is being played in favorable weather conditions.

baltimore -3 MIAMI
I think this game will be so low scoring that a field goal margin here is very likely. And while I love what Chad Pennington has done with this team I think the Ravens defense will be able to take advantage of him. They’ll get pressure on him because he’s not very mobile, and they pick him off by sitting on his routes because they know he can’t throw over the top.

MINNESOTA +3 philadelphia
I just don't trust the Eagles. They've shown flashes, then they've looked like shit. But I'm picking this based on the running game of the Vikings. And the fact that I think Andy Reid will be stupid and pass too much. When he does that, the Eagles lose.

BEST BET
indianapolis +1 SAN DIEGO
I still don't trust the Chargers. Even though they won 4 must win games in a row I still don't believe in their toughness in a crucial game. And I really like the way the Colts are playing right now. Plus they have the revenge factor working since the Chargers knocked them out last year.

Last Week: 3-2 (4 points)
Season: 44-41 (49 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (11-6)
Home Favorites: 1-0 (10-16)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (4-1)
Road Favorites: 1-0 (19-8)
Road Underdogs: 1-2 (10-15)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (1-1)

UFC Picks

The UFC usually saves its best card for its year-end show and this year is no different. On the card for UFC 92 is Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans, Antonio "Minotauro" Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir and Wanderlei Silva vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson.

NOTE: I will not be able to watch the show until Monday night at the earliest. The mother fucker who ruins even the slightest bit of the action for me will get put in a Peruvian necktie. That means no text messsages SCZA. Thank you for respecting my wishies.

All three fights could main event a PPV card. I think they're all more intriguing than the main event at UFC 93, Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson.

I made my picks (complete with method and time of victory) for our Fantasy UFC game e-mail me if you want it, but I happened to see the odds on the fights and thought I would post my thoughts here.

Wanderlei Silva is a 6:5 favorite over Rampage Jackson. I'll take Silva in this one. Both guys are strikers who hit very hard. But Rampage seems to be too much of a wildman. He'd still be champion if he had a better strategy against Griffin instead of standing there and let Griffin chop his legs out. And following his subsequent mental breakdown I can't be certain how much Rampage wants to fight.

Minotauro Nogueira is a 7:2 favorite over Frank Mir.
I was really surprised that Mir this big of an underdog. I do expect Nogueira to win because he has great jewjitsu especially for a man of his size, but I really thought this one would have been a near coin-flip.

Forrst Griffin is a 7:5 favorite over Rashad Evans. I really like Evans. I think some MMA purists don't like him but he has much more skills than Griffin. Griffin is great but I'm not sure he'll be able to do any damage to Evans who should be able to the fight he wants, which is usually the recipe for victory.

Weekly Picks

Another disastrous week because of one of the shitty New York teams. Games are getting harder to pick as teams with everything to play for face teams with nothing to play for, and often lose anyway. I've got to turn this around as all of my percentages have gone to shit after a hot start.

miami -4 KANSAS CITY
This is the first game that will put my theory to the test that teams needing wins to make the playoffs often lose to horrid teams just playing out the string. I know the Dolphins have a big game against the Jets in Week 17 meaning they probably have to win both to get in the playoffs, but if they do, they win the division. Unfortunately they have had a history this season of winning close against bad teams. But 4 is a small enough number to make me feel comfortable.

philadelphia -4 WASHINGTON
The Eagles are on fire and right now the Redskins are the second worst team in the league though I'm not so sure they'd win a rematch against the Lions right now.

new orleans -7 DETROIT
The Saints are the most predictable team in the league. They will go to 8-7 this week and lose to the Panthers next week to wrap up a season where they had every possible even record. The Lions have fought hard but I think they'll get behind early and give up.

OAKLAND +7 houston
When did the Texans get to be so good that they should be a touchdown favorite on the road? Last week was an aberration, they're mediocre at best. Not good enough to win by 8 over the Raiders.

BEST BET
TAMPA BAY -3 san diego
The most underrated team in the league versus the most overrated team. When are people going to realize that the Chargers suck and worse yet phoned in their season five weeks ago. The Bucs lost 2 straight, but to strong opponents. They'll win this one to stay alive in the NFC playoff race. If they win this one, then they play Oakland next week needing to win to get in. Sounds like a dream scenario.



Last Week: 2-3 (1 point)
Season: 38-37 (43 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (10-5)
Home Favorites: 0-0 (9-15)
Home Underdogs: 1-0 (3-1)
Road Favorites: 0-0 (16-7)
Road Underdogs: 1-3 (9-13)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (1-1)

Weekly Picks

So the Jets fucked me again. For the second time this season I picked them on the road against a bad team and they lost outright. The Jets suck and I am never picking them again this season. But I also screwed up a couple other games and set myself back with zero points. I'll rebound.

denver +7 1/2 CAROLINA
The Panthers are getting a little overrated right now. They are always a disappointing team and even though Denver has no run defense I can see them keeping this game close.

CINCINNATI +7 washington
I never pick games involving the Redskins but their offense is so bad right now I just don't see them scoring enough points to cover.

cleveland +14 PHILADELPHIA
I'm very worried about a push here but I can definitely see the Browns putting at least a couple scores on the board here to keep this one close.

pittsburgh +1 1/2 BALTIMORE
I think the Steelers are the better team with the equal defense and better offense. But I am worried about the big mistake by Ben Roethlisberger. I will enjoy Polamalu and Reed in this one.

BEST BET
new york giants +3 DALLAS
Might as well make it five underdogs (correction: only 4 on the road) this week. There's no way the Giants lose this game this week. T.O. has already planted the seeds of discord this week. I expect Romo to work a little too hard to get him the ball which means a diminished focus on the running game and on other receivers, especially Jason Witten. I think the Giants are pissed off coming off last week's loss and though the result of this game doesn't really matter when determining home-field, they don't want to go into the Carolina game off 2 straight division losses.

Last Week: 1-4 (0 points)
Season: 36-34 (42 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (10-4)
Home Favorites: 0-2 (9-15)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-1)
Road Favorites: 0-1 (16-7)
Road Underdogs: 1-1 (8-10)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (1-1)

Weekly Picks

Tough week as 2 of my losses came by half a point, but that's the way it goes sometimes. We're heading down the home stretch of the season where desperate teams start to play out-of-it teams. That leads to a lot of big spreads, but those games don't always turn out how we expect them to. After a phenomenal week for the road team, 14 of 16 favorites are at home this week.

DENVER -9 kansas city
The Chiefs beat the Broncos once this year. It won't happen again.

miami +1 BUFFALO
The Dolphins are the better team here and this game is being played in Toronto which makes it something of a neutral-site game.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 philadelphia
I'm going to this game, the Giants always win when I go to their games. Usually because they are playing the Redskins. I did see Eli Manning's infamous performance against the Vikings last year, but this time I expect the Giants to blitz McNabb and renew calls for his head.

jacksonville +7 CHICAGO
Even though Jacksonville sucks this spread it a little high for an iffy Bears team to be able to cover.

BEST BET
new york jets -3 1/2 SAN FRANCISCO
Exactly the game I'm looking for, good team coming off a bad loss, bad team coming off a good win. No way the Jets don't win this game and they could win by a field goal and let me down as they have done so often, but I think they'll come out with a strong performance in this one.

Last week: 2-3 (3 points)
Season: 35-30 (42 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (10-3)
Home Favorites: 0-1 (9-13)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-1)
Road Favorites: 1-1 (16-6)
Road Underdogs: 1-1 (7-9)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (1-1)

Weekly Picks

I've had so many 3-2 weeks this season, which is good especially under this format as I'm hitting 75% of my best bets, but I know I can do better. I'm making my picks early this week because I'm going with 2 Thanksgiving Day games. I wantd to make it all 3 but there are better choices than the Cowboys giving 13.

arizona +3 PHILADELPHIA
This looks like the classic trap game where a spread looks so out of whack that it draws you in and you get caught in its trap. But this is different. Here's why, the Cardinals are really good and the Eagles are pretty bad. The Cardinals are coming off a loss (which I like) but it was to the Giants, the best team in the NFL. The Cardinals can put a lot of points on the board, and the Eagles can't. The problems with the Eagles run a lot deeper than just Donovan McNabb. Look at the stats, he was having a pretty decent year until the last two weeks. But it's not all his fault, the offensive line hasn't been doing well, they can't run block or pass protect. And the play calling has put too much pressure on McNabb. And speaking of pressure on McNabb, the fans are going to boo him lustily from the first incomplete pass. Here's what happened with McNabb in Philly. The idiot fans booed him on draft day and even though they were dead wrong they never admitted it. And he always gave them just enough ammunition so they could say "see, I knew he was never going to be any good." Instead of giving the guy a chance, they've run him out of town.
Oh and one more reason I'm taking this game. I think this spread is partially based on this stat that no western time zone teams have won in the eastern time zone so far this year. But that's because teams from the West suck this year. You're talking about the 49ers, Seahawks and Raiders. That's why they're losing, not the time difference.

atlanta +5 SAN DIEGO
One of my rules of betting is to believe what you see, not what you believe. Sure we all thought at the beginning of the season that the Falcons suck and the Chargers are loaded with talent. But what matters is the way they are playing. And consistently this season the Falcons have shown themselves to be a good team and the Chargers have played like a bad one. I do fear the trap aspect of this spread and the fact that the Falcons are coming off a big win and the Chargers are off a tough loss, but with 5 points, I'll take my chances.

TAMPA BAY -3 1/2 new orleans
At various points this season New Orleans's record has been 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 and 5-5. That trend should continue as they fall to 6-6. Another of my rules is to be wary of teams coming off great performances on Monday Night. They tend to get overrated because everyone is watching. A good defensive team should be able to slow down the Saints offense.

indianapolis -4 1/2 CLEVELAND
After a false start earlier this year I now believe the Colts are back. And there's a reason Derek Anderson was benched for Brady Quinn. He makes too many mistakes. And if you give Peyton Manning extra possessions he will make you pay.

BEST BET
tennessee -11 DETROIT
They couldn't have made this spread big enough for me. I'd give 27 here. I really think the Titans are pissed off and they are going to come out and pound the Lions. I haven't been this confident about a game in a really long time. I just don't see any way the Lions keep this game close. Unless they are down 27, score a late touchdown, get the 2-point conversion, recover an onside kick and get another TD and 2-pointer to make it 11, against the Titans backup defense. Barring that, the Titans pound them by 30.

Last week: 3-2 (4 points)
Season: 33-27 (39 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (9-3)
Home Favorites: 0-1 (9-12)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-1)
Road Favorites: 2-0 (15-5)
Road Underdogs: 0-1 (6-8)
Road Pickems: 1-0 (1-1)

Weekly Picks

I was off to a great start last week nailing my first three games until the officials robbed me in the Steelers-Chargers game, and Trent Edwards robbed me in the Browns-Bills game. I never should have picked the Bills as my best bet anyway. That mistake threatens to derail a great season but I'm not going to let that happen.

new england pick'em MIAMI
I really think the Patriots offense is coming around under Cassel and the loss to the Jets showed they have the ability to make a crucial late-game drive and put points on the board. This game is almost like a playoff game for them sine they already lost to the Dolphins -- and the Patriots don't lose playoff games.

chicago -8 ST. LOUIS
The Bears got absolutely destroyed by the Packers last week. And that's exactly why I like them to rebound this week against the horrid Rams, even though they're on the road. The Bears are still in the mix in the NFC North and need a win here to remain so.

TENNESSEE TITANS -5 1/2 new york jets
I haven't had much luck this season picking games involving the Jets, but I've done pretty well with the Titans. I just don't believe that Brett Favre can go on the road and play turnover free against this aggressive defense. It will be interesting to see what the Titans do on offense however. The Jets have a good run defense led by Kris Jenkins but recently Kerry Collins has been carrying the offense by throwing a good deep ball.

philadelphia +1 BALTIMORE
I trust Donovan McNabb to bounce back after an embarrassing week. I also think the Eagles will blitz the shit out of rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.

BEST BET
new york giants -3 ARIZONA
I know this looks like a matchup of two of the best teams in the conference, but the Cardinals aren't in the same league as the Giants. All the Cardinals have is a great short passing game but the Giants will be able to at least control that by blitzing Kurt Warner, and making tackles once their receivers catch the ball. On offense the Giants should be able to run against an undersized but speedy Cardinals defense. Time of possession will also help keep the ball out of Warner's (and Fitzgerald's and Boldin's hands).

Last week: 3-2 (2 points)
Season: 30-25 (35 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (8-3)
Home Favorites: 0-2 (9-11)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-1)
Road Favorites: 3-0 (13-5)
Road Underdogs: 0-0 (6-7)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (0-1)

Weekly Picks

Thanks to a crazy spread in the Giants game we got back on the horse with another good week. Overall our percentage is 54% which is barely enough to scrape by with some winnings if you count the vig. But an outstanding 8-2 record on best bets makes this a very good season for this format.

tennessee -3 JACKSONVILLE
I still don't understand why the Titans are not getting any respect. They're 9-0 for pete's sake. The Jaguars are terrible and in the last two weks they faced teams that had 0 combined wins entering the game. And they went 1-1. Now they're against the best team in the NFL. Two reasons this is not my best bet: it looks too obvious, and the spread is exactly a field goal.

new orleans -5 KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs played 3 tough games in a row (Jets, Bucs and Chargers) and they lost all 3. I think the psychology of results may begin to come into play here. I also think the disappointing Saints need a victory here and the spread is not too huge.

arizona -2 1/2 SEATTLE
Even though they won the Cardinals played a very bad game Monday night. The Seahawks are absolutely awful. They played tough against the Dolphins and lost. So that makes this an interesting game for me. Normally I look for a bad team that won against a good team that lost the week before. Here I'm going with a good team that won but played poorly against a bad team that lost but played well.

PITTSBURGH -4 1/2 san diego
The Chargers are so disappointing and the Steelers defense looked so good against the Redskins. They're coming off a loss to the Colts but that gives me even more reason to believe they will bounce back at home.

BEST BET
BUFFALO -4 1/2 cleveland
I worry about picking all favorites, and I worry about picking the Bills. After their loss to the Dolphins I thought I'd stay away from them for the rest of the year. But this is more of a selection against Cleveland than a pick for Buffalo. Brady Quinn was very impressive in his debut but rookie quarterbacks are by nature up and down. I expect a down week with a couple of interceptions from the kid.


Last week: 3-2 (4 points)
Season: 27-23 (33 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (8-2)
Home Favorites: 0-1 (9-9)
Home Underdogs: 0-1 (2-1)
Road Favorites: 2-0 (10-5)
Road Underdogs: 1-0 (6-7)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (0-1)

Weekly Picks

A good bounceback week as we got back to basics. The basis for all my success in picking games is my understanding that teams do not play the same way every week. The goal is to find those teams that played against type the previous week, and to predict a return to form this week.

jacksonville -6 1/2 DETROIT
The Jags are an incredibly disappointing team this year and their playoff hopes are fading fast. They need this game, they had a tumultuous week and they lost to the previously winless Bengals last week. I can't see them giving another loser its first win. Detroit will start Daunte Culpepper which complicates things somewhat. It seems very likely that Culpepper doesn't know the offense all that well, but that could mean he'll run a safe, scaled-down version that will reduce turnovers and keep this close. But with the spread under a touchdown I'll give the points.

OAKLAND +9 carolina
The Raiders played one of the worst offensive games in history last week. That won't happen again. The Panthers are one of the NFL's perpetually disappointing teams. This seems like the kind of game they'll keep close and win at the end on a field goal.

new york giants +3 PHILADELPHIA
I've fallen into so many traps this year and I might be stepping into another one. But I just don't see how anyone in the league could be favored over the Giants right now.

MIAMI -8 1/2 seattle
Seems like there might be something to this whole "Seahawks can't play on the East Coast" theory. And maybe Seattle (especially with Seneca Wallace) is just so bad they can't play anywhere.

BEST BET
tennessee -3 CHICAGO
This defense against Rex Grossman? Unless he throws nothing but screen passes (or had a lobotomy) I don't see any way Rex throws fewer than 2 picks. I might get burned if the Titans go for nothing but field goals again but I expect them to open it up on offense a little more this week.

Last week: 3-2 (4 points)
Season: 24-21 (29 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (7-2)
Home Favorites: 1-2 (9-8)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-0)
Road Favorites: 2-0 (8-5)
Road Underdogs: 0-0 (5-7)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (0-1)

Weekly Picks

After getting off to an incredible start we've now had two horrible weeks in a row. It's time to get back to basics. No more getting sucked in by what looks obvious. Time to see what everyone else is not seeing.

arizona -3 ST. LOUIS
Not sure what to make of the Rams recent surge but I don't think they have the offensive firepower to stick with the Cardinals.

BUFFALO -5 1/2 new york jets
A temporary setback for the Bills last week. I continue to believe that the Jets are actually a bad team and their quarterback is killing them with dumb turnovers.

atlanta -3 OAKLAND
I still believe the Falcons are a good team, and Matt Ryan is already a good quarterback. And I still believe the Raiders are shitty.

TENNESSEE -4 green bay
When are people going to start giving this team some respect?

BEST BET
NEW YORK GIANTS -8 1/2 dallas
I think the Giants were lucky to escape Pittsburgh last week with a win. And I think Dallas also got lucky to beat the Buccaneers. But the Giants have a much stronger offense and the Cowboys are riddled with injuries. I think Eli Manning will take advantage of a weak secondary and the Giants line will go after statue-esque Brad Johnson until we see Brooks Bollinger.

Last week: 1-4 (0 point)
Season: 21-19 (25 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (6-2)
Home Favorites: 1-1 (8-6)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-0)
Road Favorites: 0-1 (6-5)
Road Underdogs: 0-2 (5-7)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (0-1)

Weekly Picks

My first disaster last week. It happens, that's why they call it gambling. I did salvage the week winning 2 games and getting 1 point but using up a lot of luck in the process. A late safety pushed the Giants over the spread and a garbage touchdown gave me the Seahawks. There are a lot of juicy games this week but sometimes those games look good but kill you in the long run. I have added incentive this week as I am making the picks for Papa Poop this week because he is on a cruise. He has 7 points so far this year so anything I give him would be gravy as he insists on not trying to play for last place (which pays about $300). By the way, the pool's current leader is Brother-in-law Derick with 26 points, my total would be good for second place so far.

tampa bay +2 DALLAS
I can't believe Dallas is favored over anyone right now. They are in absolute shambles right now. And the Bucs are a damn good team. And a team not prone to mistakes. I thought Brad Johnson could come in and steady the team but that didn't happen last week and I don't think it will happen this time either.

atlanta +9 PHILADELPHIA
I don't get this spread either. I know a lot of bookmaking is based on reputation and not necessarily the results on the field. But so far this season you'd probably have to say the Falcons are the better team. Even if you want to give the Eagles, three points, I could see it, maybe even a touchdown, but 9 points? That makes no sense to me.

TENNESSEE -3 1/2 indianapolis
Last week I made the mistake of thinking the Colts were back. I learned better. But my whole philosophy of picking is that teams don't perform the same way every week. But I really love the way the Titans are playing and I think they are well-positioned to exploit the Colts' biggest weakness, specifically trouble on the offenseive line.

NEW ENGLAND -7 1/2 st. louis
Maybe New England woke up out of their slumber and Matt Cassel figured it out and gained some confidence Monday Night. Or maybe the Rams have completely turned their season around under Jim Haslett and will win this game for their third straight win, all of which were against playoff teams from last year.

BEST BET
buffalo -1 1/2 MIAMI
I know the Dolphins legitimately have some life to them, especially as compared to last year. And I know their Wildcat offense is supposedly unstoppable. But have you looked at the records? The Bills are 5-1 and they are a damn good team. Trent Edwards is playing great, and not making mistakes and they are finding ways to win. Division games are always tough but I think the Bills will win this one.

Last week: 2-3 (1 point)
Season: 20-15 (25 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (6-1)
Home Favorites: 1-0 (7-5)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-0)
Road Favorites: 0-3 (6-4)
Road Underdogs: 1-0 (5-5)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (0-1)

Weekly Picks

Another very strong week keeps our hot streak going. A lot of big upsets last week, we're going to see if those teams can bounce back.

dallas -7 ST. LOUIS
I can never remember a team going through so many lineup changes in one week. They're going to be a completely different team. Thankfully for them they get to play the Rams. A really awful team coming off a win. I doubt the Rams can make it two in a row.

NEW YORK GIANTS -11 san francisco
No way in hell the Giants lose two in a row. Now the question is can they cover this huge spread. I think the Giants offense will bounce back with another huge game at home, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a similar score to the one they put on the Seahawks 2 weeks ago.

indianapolis -1 1/2 GREEN BAY
I think the Colts and Peyton Manning are back.

seattle +11 TAMPA BAY
I just don't love the Buccaneers offense that much. I know the Seahawks are putrid but we only need them to keep it close.

BEST BET
new york jets -3 OAKLAND
This is a pretty small spread. As overrated as I think the Jets are, and as bad as Brett Favre is with turning the ball over, I can't see them losing to the Raiders. They still have to win by more than a field goal but I really think the Raiders are that bad, as long as Favre doesn't start slinging it around, the Jets should win this game by 20.

Last week: 4-1 (5 points)
Season: 18-12 (24 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (6-0)
Home Favorites: 1-0 (6-5)
Home Underdogs: 1-0 (2-0)
Road Favorites: 0-0 (6-1)
Road Underdogs: 2-1 (4-5)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (0-1)

Weekly Picks

Finally got that big breakthrough week but could have been perfect. I didn't have Dallas originally, I had Buffalo, but as I was writing it I changed my mind to the Cardinals, but decided if I was that uncertain I should find a different game. So it was that indecision which led me to pick the Cowboys over the Bengals. Hopefully this week I can keep the string of best bets going. And I'm going to employ a different strategy this week. I've picked favorites 68% of the time, this week I'm going with four underdogs.

cincinnati +6 NEW YORK JETS
The Bengals are winless but have played a couple good games in a row. I'm not a big believer in the Jets and Brett Favre and I think the Bengals could win this game or at least keep it close.

detroit +13 MINNESOTA
The Vikings are coming off a big win on Monday night and I never like teams coming off Monday night wins. The Vikings really aren't that good, and this is a lot of points to lay with an average team, even though they are playing one of the worst teams in the league. The Lions should have enough offense to avoid their second straight division embarrassment.

miami +3 HOUSTON
The Dolphins are the better team here, plain and simple. I don't quite understand why they are underdogs, even on the road. This is not last season anymore. But sometimes when the spread doesn't seem right you're stepping into a trap. But I really think the Texans suck and the Dolphins Wildcat offense will help them put some points on the board.

ARIZONA +5 dallas
I don't think the Cowboys are as good as we may have all thought. The Cardinals have enough offense to keep pace with the Cowboys and at home getting five points, I like them to keep it close.

BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS -7 1/2 oakland
The Saints are coming off a big loss Monday night and are starting to get pretty desperate. The Raiders are still dealing with the Lane Kiffin mess. I'm not sure if they'll be able to shake it off, or if they'll be crippled by this unusual and awkwardly timed coaching change. The problem here is that Oakland's defense is pretty good. So if the Raiders can put 17 points on the board it might be enough to cover the spread.

Last week: 4-1 (5 points - 19 total)
Best Bets: 1-0 (5-0)
Home Favorites: 2-1 (5-5)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (1-0)
Road Favorites: 2-0 (6-1)
Road Underdogs: 0-0 (2-4)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (0-1)

Weekly Picks

I keep chopping wood nailing all my best bets but haven't been able to breakthrough with that huge week.

tennessee -2 BALTIMORE
I've picked against the Ravens every single week and I've been wrong all three times. I'm going to try it again and hope that the Titans strong defense will finally make Joe Flacco look like the rookie he is.

CAROLINA -10 kansas city
The Chiefs got their one surprise victory out of the way. Now they have to go on the road against a pretty tough team. Ten is a lot of points to lay, but the thing about bad teams is, they're bad. And they're especially bad on the road, and after wins. If they could win on the road and after wins they'd be good teams.

new england -3 SAN FRANCISCO
Ok, so the loss to the Miami was embarrassing but I think that will be even more motivation for the Patriots to come out of their bye week on fire. I just don't see the 49ers as a good team at all. They may try to do some different things with Frank Gore but I think the Patriots will be ready.

DALLAS -17 cincinnati
I'm picking an old-fashioned blowout for a team that is pretty pissed off after losing to the Redskins last week.

BEST BET
NEW YORK GIANTS -7 seattle seahawks
I just don't think the Seahawks are any good at all this year. They may make the playoffs by beating up on the teams in the worst division in football, but this time they face a team from the best division in football. The Giants had a tough test at home against the Bengals and after the bye week should be ready to blow someone out. I think the absence of Plaxico Burress is beating overrated by the oddsmakers and gamblers.

Last week: 3-2 (4 points - 14 total)
Best Bets: 1-0 (4-0)
Home Favorites: 1-1 (3-4)
Home Underdogs: 1-0 (1-0)
Road Favorites: 1-0 (4-1)
Road Underdogs: 0-1 (2-4)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (0-1)

Weekly Picks

A dominating performance by the San Diego Chargers saved me from a disastrous week. Through three weeks I'm under .500 overall but by nailing all three of my best bets I've posted a respectable score.

KANSAS CITY +9 1/2 denver
Call me crazy but I like Damon Huard's ability to put some points on the board against a terrible defense. We've seen lots of times this year already when a veteran quarterback comes in, he brings a steady hand and improves the team's performance. The Broncos can score a lot, but they give up a lot as well. This is a big number to get for a home team and I think the Chiefs might be able to cover it with a late score.

atlanta +7 1/2 CAROLINA
I really like what the Falcons have done so far this season. Matt Ryan is playing well but I'm really making this pick because of Michael Turner. If he can churn up 100 yards and 2 TDs they'll definitely be within a touchdown. The Panthers historicaly are a team that disappoints gamblers, when you think they're good they let you down. I can definitely see that happening again.

PITTSBURGH -5 1/2 baltimore
I know the Steelers didn't look good against the Eagles but I just can't believe in the Ravens yet. You're telling me a rookie quarterback is going to go into Pittsburgh on a Monday night and keep it close? I'm still skeptical, but maybe I'll be a believer soon.

san diego -7 OAKLAND
The Chargers, and Tomlinson especially, always seem to dominate the Raiders. And they're still 1-2 so they can't afford a letdown against a bad team.

BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS -6 san francisco
The Saints have been putting a lot of points on the board and Reggie Bush is really emerging as the all-around threat the Texans hoped he wouldn't be when they passed on him in the draft. Sure they don't play much defense but the 49ers aren't exacly world beaters and with the spread under a touchdown, I think the Saints will cover.



Last week: 2-3 (3 points - 10 total)
Best Bets: 1-0 (3-0)
Home Favorites: 2-1 (2-3)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (0-0)
Road Favorites: 0-0 (3-1)
Road Underdogs: 0-2 (2-3)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (0-1)

Weekly Picks

A good week last week thanks to the Colts incredible comeback against the Vikings. But a little of that luck went back the other way when the Chargers didn't cover due to a bad call, and their own poor play. Every single home team is favored this week except for the Packers.

carolina +3 MINNESOTA
A 2-0 team is an underdog to an 0-2 team? I understand the reasoning behind this however especially because the Vikings may have addressesd their biggest weakness by benching Tarvaris Jackson in favor of Gus Frerotte. But the tendency is to keep believing in teams we thought were going to be good. And to keep discounting the teams we didn't think were going to be good. I try to go by a "believe what you see, not what you believe" mantra so we'll see how this one plays out.

cleveland +2 BALTIMORE
Even though the Browns are 0-2, they did play two very good teams, not enough to convince me that they're going to be bad this year. I had no hope for the Ravens this year and they've only played one game, so I'm not convinced I was wrong. Another of my theories says that you should always take points if you can get them with the better team.

ATLANTA -5 1/2 kansas city
It's possible the Chiefs will be the worst team in the NFL this season. And these current quarterback issues aren't helping. I also think they have one of the worst coaches in the NFL. None of that is a recipe for success on the road. The Falcons aren't that great either but they should win this one comfortably.

BUFFALO -9 oakland
I liked this game when I heard that matchup but I thought the spread was going to be smaller after the Raiders played great last week. I guess killing the Chiefs doesn't count for much. Buffalo so far is a surprise story of the NFL and with St. Louis and Arizona coming up the Bills could be 5-0.

BEST BET
SAN DIEGO -8 1/2 new york jets
The Chargers are pissed.

Last week: 3-2 (4 points - 7 total)
Home Favorites: 0-1 (0-2)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (0-0)
Road Favorites: 1-0 (3-1)
Road Underdogs: 2-0 (2-1)
Road Pickems: 0-1 (0-1)

Weekly Picks

Started off the year with a decent week thanks to a fortuitous injury to the Jets kicker. A lot of teams I thought were good lost last week, so I'm going to pick them to bounce back this week.

JACKSONVILLE -5 buffalo
Classic case of a good team losing and getting written off (they did lost two key offensive linemen) and a decent team winning big and getting pumped up. The Bills did blow out the Seahawks but a couple unusual plays boosted their cause. I don't see them going on the road and beating the Jags so I'll give the 5 points and hope.

san diego pick em DENVER
Another example of the better team having lost last week. Plus I think the national opinion of Denver got inflated because they did what they did on Monday night when everyone was watching. But since they did what they did against the horrible Raiders, I'm not ready to believe they're really that good. I always get burned falling in love with the Chargers but you can't discount they have tons of talent.

new england +1 1/2 NEW YORK JETS
This game will be a great demonstration of the importance of one player to a football team. The Jets sucked last year without Brett Favre, how much impact does he have on them? The Patriots were nearly perfect last year with Tom Brady, will they fall off that much without him? I don't think they will. It remains to be seen how much Favre will improve the Jets, but I think the Patriots still have too many good players and will be out to prove something this week.

tennessee +1 CINCINNATI
It's seem very likely that the Bengals will be awful again this year even with all their weapons on offense. And I actually think the Titans are better off without Vince Young. They have a good running game and I think Kerry Collins can make enough plays to get them past the Bengals.

BEST BET
indianapolis -1 1/2 MINNESOTA
Peyton Manning against Tarvaris Jackson. That should be enough to convince anyone that the Colts will win this game. But there's also the matter that the Colts got embarrassed last week and will be out to prove something. Plus the Vikings have a good run defense, but a terrible pass defense, and I expect Manning to slice them up


Last week: 2-3 (3 points)
Home Favorites: 0-1
Home Underdogs: 0-0
Road Favorites: 2-1
Road Underdogs: 0-1

Weekly Picks

It's time for another season of Paul's picks. Even though I am not doing the pool this year due to a dissatisfaction with the rules, I'll still pick four games for 1 or 0 points, and a 5th game as my best bet for 2 or -1.

cincinnati -1 1/2 BALTIMORE
I think the Ravens are going to be putrid this year. I don't think too much of the Bengals either but they at least have an offense that can put some points on the board. With a spread this small, I just go after the winner.

minnesota +2 1/2 GREEN BAY
No one knows how Aaron Rodgers is going to do with all this pressure on him. We all know how Tarvaris Jackson is going to do, poorly. But with Adrian Peterson, an excellent offensive line and a good defense I think the Vikings will win this game, and the extra couple points cushion makes me feel even more comfortable about this pick.

dallas -5 CLEVELAND
I think this is the year Dallas gets over the hump and dominates the NFC to the tune of a 13-3 or 14-2 record. As for Cleveland, I expect a big dropoff offensively from last year. This spread is pretty big for a road favorite, but I have that much faith in the Cowboys.

NEW ENGLAND -15 kansas city
They've been waiting the entire offseason for this.

BEST BET
new york jets -3 MIAMI
I can't believe the Jets are only giving 3 points to this horrible Dolphins team, even on the road. Favre should be fired up and the Dolphins should still be bad. I can't see the Jets losing this one, so unless it's a field goal game I really like my chances here.

Super Bowl Prediction

I'd need a miracle to cash in my pool this year...wait actually, no I wouldn't need a miracle. I am tied for 10th place with 52 points. The top 8 are paid. There are 3 people with 55, they are tied for 4th. Then three people are tied for for 7th with 54. Then I am tied with four others. Basically I need to get the game right, and nail the point total to have any chance because if you get the game right you get two points, get it wrong and you lose one, so it's possible to close a 3 point gap.

New York Giants +12 New England Patriots
I've been picking the Patriots all season and they've covered only once in their last 8 games. I expect that trend to keep up and the Giants to cover this huge spread.

I am also picking the Giants to win the game. It's a little bit of a hunch, a little bit of a nod to destiny and a little bit of wishful thinking for Papa Poop and Master Bates. But most of my decision is based on the fact that the Patriots defense has been awful lately. They are old and they can't stop anyone.

I think the Giants can run the ball effectively and limit the number of possessions. I think Giants defense can get pressure on Brady without bringing extra guys and taking them out of coverage. One key turnover, or one key stop on 3rd down can give the Giants the edge in this game.

New York Giants 27 New England Patriots 23
MVP: Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora
Note: It's too easy to pick a QB so I went out on a limb.

Feel free to post in the comments your predicted final score as well as an MVP choice who does not play quarterback.