Weekly Picks

A good bounceback week as we got back to basics. The basis for all my success in picking games is my understanding that teams do not play the same way every week. The goal is to find those teams that played against type the previous week, and to predict a return to form this week.

jacksonville -6 1/2 DETROIT
The Jags are an incredibly disappointing team this year and their playoff hopes are fading fast. They need this game, they had a tumultuous week and they lost to the previously winless Bengals last week. I can't see them giving another loser its first win. Detroit will start Daunte Culpepper which complicates things somewhat. It seems very likely that Culpepper doesn't know the offense all that well, but that could mean he'll run a safe, scaled-down version that will reduce turnovers and keep this close. But with the spread under a touchdown I'll give the points.

OAKLAND +9 carolina
The Raiders played one of the worst offensive games in history last week. That won't happen again. The Panthers are one of the NFL's perpetually disappointing teams. This seems like the kind of game they'll keep close and win at the end on a field goal.

new york giants +3 PHILADELPHIA
I've fallen into so many traps this year and I might be stepping into another one. But I just don't see how anyone in the league could be favored over the Giants right now.

MIAMI -8 1/2 seattle
Seems like there might be something to this whole "Seahawks can't play on the East Coast" theory. And maybe Seattle (especially with Seneca Wallace) is just so bad they can't play anywhere.

BEST BET
tennessee -3 CHICAGO
This defense against Rex Grossman? Unless he throws nothing but screen passes (or had a lobotomy) I don't see any way Rex throws fewer than 2 picks. I might get burned if the Titans go for nothing but field goals again but I expect them to open it up on offense a little more this week.

Last week: 3-2 (4 points)
Season: 24-21 (29 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (7-2)
Home Favorites: 1-2 (9-8)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-0)
Road Favorites: 2-0 (8-5)
Road Underdogs: 0-0 (5-7)
Road Pickems: 0-0 (0-1)