Saturday, January 31, 2015

Super Bowl Prop Bets

This is actually one of my favorite posts to write all year, even though it normally takes me hours. This year I'm using bovada and betonline but I can't direct link to the proper pages so you'll have to find them yourself. We'll start with the game and then move on to the ridiculous.

Super Bowl MVP
Rob Gronkowski 10/1

Tom Brady at 2/1 is a little too obvious and Russell Wilson at 7/2 is still a high price for a QB who is not the focal point of his team. If the Seahawks win it could very well be a random defensive player again. If the Pats win Brady will get the benefit of the doubt, but I feel confident that Gronk scores 2 TDs at least 10% of the time.

Player to Score First TD
Marshawn Lynch 11/2
Rob Gronkowski 13/2

Roughly 6 to 1 that one of these guys will be the one. The odds have to be better than 15%. Both of them are the focal points for their teams' offenses and likely a big part of their early game strategy as well.

Chandler Jones Sacks
Over 1/2 (-150)

Wilson does a lot of scrambling so Chandler could catch him one yard behind the line and still get credit for a sack.

Russell Wilson Passing Yards
Under 219 1/2 (-105)

I think the Patriots secondary is quite good and the Seahakws receivers aren't. I just don't see Wilson having a big passing game.

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards
Over 40 1/2 (-125)

I guess these last three bets all fit together. The Patriots defensive backs tightly cover the Seahawks receivers, Wilson is forced to scramble a lot. If the game doesn't play out like that I could very well be wrong on everything, including my pick of New England to win.

Marshawn Lynch Rushing Attempts
Under 20 1/2 (even)

This seems like a lot, unless the Seahawks have a big lead and try to pound the rock -- and do so effectively.

Luke Wilson Receptions
5 or more (+400)

I know this is kind of a long shot but he is a frequent safety valve for his brother Russell so he could see the ball quite a bit.

Richard Sherman Interceptions
Under 1/2 (-230)

Richard Sherman Tackles
Under 3 1/2 (-105)

I just think Sherman is not going to have a huge impact on this game.

Will Rob Gronkowski have more than 100 receiving yards
Yes (+190)

I wouldn't say I necessarily think this is going to happen, but I like the wager at this price.

Now let's move on to the fun stuff.
Minutes of Silva-Diaz vs. Legarrette Blount carries
Silva Diaz (-105)

I'm just not sure if Silva has it in him anymore for a first round knockout. More likely this goes the full 25. Unlikely Blount gets more than 15 carries.

How Long Will It Take Idina Menzel to Sing the National Anthem
Under 2 minutes and 1 second (-130)
I know she is a ham and she will hold some notes, but this is incredibly long for the anthem. Even Whitney Houston didn't break the 2-minute barrier.

Will Idina Menzel Omit or Forget At Least One Word
No (-700)

There is zero chance this is happening. She is way too conscientious too not have studied and way too seasoned to get nervous. If I owned a hedge fund I would put all my money on this and then close our books for the year with a 14% return.

What Color Will Bill Belichicl's Hoodie Be?
Grey (-120)

This is pretty much a two horse race with blue (no way he wears red) but I kind of feel like grey is the easy choice here.

What Will Katy Perry Be Wearing When She Begins the Halftime Show?
Pants (+450)

This is a huge dog but I think it has a real shot. Because she could come out in something covered up and then strip it away as the show goes on.

Will Katy Perry Be Showing Cleavage During the Halftime Show?
Yes (-700)

She didn't pay thousands of dollars for those things only to keep them covered up in front of the biggest audience she'll ever have.

What Will the Nielsen Rating of the Game Be?
Over 47 1/2 (-120)
Always tricky but these games keep getting more popular and I expect this one to be close and exciting.

What Color Gatorade Will be Dumped on the Winning Coach's Head?
Orange (3/2)

The Patriots always go with the tried and true.

Temperature at Kickoff
Under 67 1/2 degrees (-115)

It has been unseasonably cool in Arizona all week.

Friday, January 30, 2015

Super Bowl Pick

My hot postseason continues, and I was one historic collapse away from entering the Super Bowl with a perfect 10-0 playoff record (in my pre-playoffs straight winners) but at least I got them both right with the spread to go 7-3.

New England Patriots -1/2 Seattle Seahawks
I am going to take New England here. I don't really have a good Xs and Os reason for it. It's more about not thinking the Seahawks will repeat and not thinking the Patriots will lose three consecutive Super Bowls (they've played in).
If I were going to try to analyze the game, I would say that I think the Seattle secondary won't be able to shut down Rob Gronkowski. And when Brady gets going to the Gronk it usually opens up the rest of their offense.
As for their defense, I think the Patriots secondary will be able to blanket the Seahawks inferior wide receivers. If they can in turn stop Marshawn Lynch, the game will depend on how Russell Wilson does running the ball.
I have always been a Wilson doubter but the guy just makes plays. Somehow he always does exactly what his team needs, when they need it, like that 2-point conversion against the Packers.
But this time he's against Tom Brady, and a pretty decent Pats defense.
I think it will be a close game and I'm going to say New England 27 Seattle 23.

Last week: 2-0 (3 points)
Season: 48-47 (43 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (9-11)
Home Favorites: 1-0 (17-20)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-1)
Road Favorites: 0-0 (12-12)
Road Underdogs: 1-0 (17-14)

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Boy Did They Blow That One

I have the indisputable answer as to why weather forecasters were so incorrect in predicting the severity of the recent snowstorm:
predicting the future is impossible.
Weather forecasts are just best guesses. You can have computer models anticipating everything but then one butterfly flaps his or her wings in TON's backyard in New Jersey and it changes the snowfall amounts at the palatial Damino estate in Westchester County.
But that doesn't mean they didn't fuck up royally. The meteorological community has a vested interest in going with the most dire forecasts they can reasonably get behind:
1) It makes people pay attention to them
2) It earns them money
3) They really feel like they are doing the right then to keep people safe
4) It's better to err on the high side, than on the low side

Unfortunately idiot politicians to whom we entrust way too much power and control of our lives, took these Chicken Little predictions and shut down entire cities for no good reason.

Note: it's a shame that we don't trust one another enough (we may be justified) to let people use their own judgement of whether or not it's safe to drive and go to work.

Song of the Week

"Life's a Bitch" - Nas featuring AZ
Excellent use of the sample from "Yearning For Your Love" by the Gap Band (SOTW, 6/8/11).
I watched a pretty cool documentary on Nas and really enjoyed it. It explored Illmatic which I always thought was slightly overrated. But hearing where the songs come from and how influential they were at the time gave me a new appreciation for it.