Friday, October 05, 2012

Baseball Playoff Predictions

National League:
Braves over Cardinals

Reds over Giants
Nationals over Braves

Reds over Nationals

American League:
Rangers over Orioles

Tigers over A's
Yankees over Rangers

Tigers over Yankees

World Series:
Reds over Tigers

Thursday, October 04, 2012

Weekly Picks

Finally got off the schneid thanks to the Chargers. And the two games I got wrong, the favorites won, but didn't cover which happens less often than you think. My overall record is back to .500 and I will improve that this week. The picks are up early this week because I am getting my best bet out of the way early.

I really like the Bengals easy schedule. Even in a loss Miami had a great performance last week, especially Tannehill. Bad teams and rookie QBs tend to be up and down.

CAROLINA -3 seattle
Panthers will break through one of these days. Seattle is incredibly overrated and I will pick against them whenever I get the chance.

san diego +3 1/2 NEW ORLEANS
A 3-1 team getting more than a field goal from an 0-4 team. Believe what you see, not what you believe. I've been hot with the Chargers (30% of my wins) and they will let me down eventually. But not this week.

NEW YORK JETS +8 houston
Things are never as bad as they seem. Was hoping to get 11 in this game but I will take 8 and hope they don't get blown out at home for the second straight week.

arizona -2 1/2 ST LOUIS

Cardinals are a good team (there's a zero in their L column) coming off a bad game, albeit a win. The Rams pulled off a good win but I don't seem them doing it twice in a row.

Last Week: 3-2 (4 points)
Season: 10-10 (8 points)
Best Bets: 1-0 (1-3)
Home Favorites: 0-2 (1-7)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (2-0)
Road Favorites: 3-0 (4-3)
Road Underdogs: 0-0 (3-0)

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

He Waited Seven Years For This?

In 2005 Adam Greenberg stepped to the plate for his first major league plate appearance. He was beaned in the head.

He spent the next 7 years trying to recover, experiencing vertigo and a host of other ailments as he fought his way through the minor leagues, the independent leagues before eventually giving up baseball last year.
But the Florida Marlins decided to do something nice for Greenberg and give him a pity at bat. Which is fine, and a nice thing to do, but they did it out of pity, and for the attention.

Unfortunately for him, his long awaited at bat came against the knuckleball of R.A. Dickey and he struck out on three pitches.

Pleasantly Plump News Personality

Before I offer my thoughts on the subject I want you all to watch this, even if you’ve seen it already, watch the entire thing. WKBT news anchor Jennifer Livingston got a viewer e-mail critical of her weight and here is her on-air response:

I disagree with her on several parts of this:
1) She chose this profession. It is a very superficial profession by nature. If she didn’t want to be judged largely based on her looks she should have chosen a different profession. And if she wanted to be on TV despite that, she should learn to ignore.
2) I thought the letter was fair and thoughtful. It didn’t call her a fat pig or a dumb bitch. It pointed out her visibility in the community and how she should be a better role model. If she were smoking cigarettes on air she’d get 100 letters like this. We’re going to create laws restricting what people eat but we can’t point out when people are overweight. That’s a little too much “love the sinner, hate the sin” for me. I’m a big personal responsibility guy we can’t expect people to have proper eating habits if we apologize for them when they get fat as the result of those bad habits.

Note: please don’t come at me with “maybe she has a medical condition.” There are very few medical conditions that make it impossible to be thin. Certain ailments or medications make people put on weight. But even so, it is possible to control your weight, maybe a little more difficult perhaps.

1) This guy was just being mean. He had no prayer of opening her eyes to healthy eating habits and an exercise regimen. He just wanted to be nasty and hurt her feelings. Not sure why that would give him any satisfaction but that’s why he did it.
2) I think she looks nice. She’s very pretty. She’s a little overweight, not obese on a fair standard and at her age probably not at risk for many obesity-related illnesses.
3) “If you are at home talking about the fat news lady, guess what? Your kids are going to go to school and call someone fat.” She’s right about that. Parents are the examples for kids. To teach them how to have healthy eating habits and to teach them how to treat those that don’t.

The NFL is Poop - Week 4

Mark Sanchez Stinks
The problem with Mark Sanchez has nothing to do with Tim Tebow, and everything to do with himself. The narrative over the summer was that the acquisition of Tebow was going to hurt Sanchez’s confidence and prevent him from performing at his best. That is total bullshit. The problem with Sanchez is that he is not a good quarterback. The analysis from pseudo-psychiatrists on talk radio is not accurate here. He plays bad because he is bad (purposeful grammatical error). The Jets have a real problem here. To win in this league you need a good quarterback. The Jets don’t have one. And usually the only way to get one is through the draft. I am not recommending turning the team over to Tebow because he can’t pass. But Sanchez isn’t much better. They probably need to get rid of both of them and move on. I do understand that Sanchez has some good games and I don’t want it to seem like I am over-reacting to one bad game. This is his fourth season in the league and he hasn’t shown the improvement necessary to believe he will ever be a better than average NFL quarterback.

The Packers Want the Replacement Refs Back
A week after being victimized by the worst game-deciding call in NFL history, the Packers were once again on the wrong side of officials’ calls, though they overcame and beat the Saints anyway, 28-27. The Saints first touchdown came on a play when obvious offensive pass interference on Marques Colston was ignored. Later in the game the refs missed on obvious fumble by Darren Sproles, who clearly hadn’t yet hit the ground. But the Packers couldn’t challenge. I think the greater lesson here is that even though we are happy to have the real referees back, they screw up a lot of calls too. It was easy to pick on the replacements, but not all of the problems will be fixed now.

Why Teams Play the Prevent Defense
I always say the prevent defense prevents you from winning. And it’s true. But the main reason teams play the prevent is to make sure they don’t allow one huge play, whenever the opponent doesn’t have the time for several smaller ones. The Panthers led by 1, with 59 seconds left, and had the Falcons backed up to their own 1 yard line. If ever there is a time for the prevent this is it. 60 yards to go, at least, 59 seconds to do it and no timeouts. All the Panthers needed to do was keep the Falcons in front of them, and maybe in bounds, and they would run out of time. But on the first play Roddy White gets behind safety Hiruki Nakamura for a 59-yard gain. One penalty and two short passes put them in position for the game-winning field goal.

Game of the Week
New England 52 Buffalo 28

Normally the game of the week is a closer battle but this one interests me. I was driving in the car listening to instant feedback on 3 different Sirius channels. When the Patriots got down 21-7 the hosts were considering doomsday scenarios if Patriots should fall to 1-3. And then they woke up. The Patriots scored 6 touchdowns (and a field goal) in the last 23 minutes of the game. Roughly translated into 120 points if the pace kept up for 60 minutes. 6 straight touchdown drives, none longer than 3 minutes 20 seconds. The last three all started in Bills territory thanks to a fumble, an interception and a failed onsides kick.

Game of Next Week
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh

Interesting battle for the state. The Eagles have been getting either incredibly lucky or incredibly unlucky. They won 2 of first three games by 1 point each, despite making 12 turnovers. In game 4, 0 zero turnovers, but they survived thanks to a missed field goal. Either they are not this bad and will improve, or they will stop getting lucky and struggle. Steelers also have something to prove.

Picture of the Week
Josh Cribbs has his helmet blasted off by a hard hit. He was down for several minutes but thankfully was able to walk off under his own power.

Taking Being a Tough Guy Too Far
Colts new coach Chuck Pagano is out indefinitely, probably for at least the rest of the season after being diagnosed with leukemia. He will be hospitalized for 6 to 8 weeks while undergoing chemotherapy.
Pagano’s wife pushed him to see the doctor after noticing unusual bruising on the coach’s body. He waited until the Colts’ bye week to be checked out after experiencing extreme fatigue and bruising, starting in training camp. Pagano believed he was experiencing football fatigue, but a blood test revealed the diagnosis of leukemia.
This is when the tough-guy ethos of football can really be dangerous. The guy noticed bruising in training camp and waited over a month to get checked out? Thankfully it doesn't seem like the delay hurts his prognosis.

A Brief Rant About the Redskins
Another great game by Robert Griffin III. They had been running him too much in the previous two games. Putting him in the option is not the only way to utilize his speed. They can get him to throw on the run, for the occasional QB draw and he's deadly in the red zone, which they took advantage of in this game.
Kyle Shanahan had another bad game as the play-calling was atrocious. They again got conservative trying to sit on a 4th quarter lead. The two drives preceding the final one resulted in one first down. A few first downs, even without points, would have sealed the victory.
Billy Cundiff is horrible. For years the Redskins have lost games because of missed field goals and have never adequately addressed the problem. Thank God he made the last one but we never should have been in that position in the first place.

If the Super Bowl Were Played Today
Houston Texans 31 Atlanta Falcons 17

After years of being the trendy pick the Texas finally look like they are for real. And with a really weak division it shouldn't be hard for them to win home field throughout the playoffs. The Falcons were a little shaky but they got the job done. They also have a bad division (and a 3-game lead), the others 3 teams are 2-10 with Carolina's and Tampa Bay's wins both coming against New Orleans.

Song of the Week

"I'd Wait a Million Years" - Grass Roots

Sunday, September 30, 2012

I Hope This Doesn't Mean The End of Car Chases on TV

I love watching live car chases on the news. The fun part about them is that you never know how they are going to end. The bad part about them is you never know how they're going to end:

You have to be really careful with something like this, must run it on e a delay. If something goes bad you need to be able to cut away before the audience sees a perp blow his head off.

For the record the guy who killed himself was Jodon Romero. He stole a car at gunpoint, shot at the cops, then led them on a hourlong police chase.