Saturday, November 17, 2012
Continued to build on my good week the previous week. 7-3 the past two weeks. Still missed my best bet and did not intentionally try to jinx the Giants, despite what you may think. I like a lot of underdogs this week and was debating going with 5 dogs. philadelphia +3 1/2 WASHINGTON Again, this is not a reverse jinx. This is a pick based on the fact that not only do I not think the loss of Vick will hurt the Eagles, I think it will actually help. They'll give the ball to McCoy more and turn it over less. I also think the league has figured out RGIII and Kyle Shanahan has yet to adjust. Redskins have been inept on offense in their last three games. indianapolis +9 1/2 NEW ENGLAND The Patriots defense has been pretty awful. They have trouble holding leads and the Colts are definitely frisky. This seems like too many. PITTSBURGH +3 1/2 baltimore Another bet here that the loss of the starting QB is overrated. At least for the first week. DALLAS -7 cleveland This is when the Tony Romo Cowboys start to make their move. If Dallas wins here and beats the Redskins on Thanksgiving, highly likely, and the Giants continue to struggle, they could sneak in and take the NFC East. BEST BET tampa bay -1 1/2 CAROLINA So I didn't go with an underdog for my best bet. And I went with a team that has been incredibly hot and everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. But the spread is so low all they have to do is win, and I like their chances. Last Week: 3-2 (2 points) Season: 22-28 (16 points) Best Bets: 0-1 (2-8) Home Favorites: 0-0 (5-15) Home Underdogs: 1-0 (4-2) Road Favorites: 1-2 (7-8) Road Underdogs: 1-0 (5-3)
Friday, November 16, 2012
What do you give me for the woman at the center of the David Petraeus scandal, Paula Broadwell, and Madeiline Stowe, the actress sure to to play her in the movie version?
Thursday, November 15, 2012
The race for American League MVP between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout has become one of the most controversial in recent memory, odd since it really isn't even close, when you look at it the right way. The common description of the race is old-school vs. new-school, the stat geeks vs. the baseball guys. But really it's common sense vs. faulty logic. These are the main arguments for Miguel Cabrera: He won the Triple Crown which hasn't been done since 1967. Miguel Cabrera hit 44 home runs in 161 games. Josh Hamilton hit 43 in 148 games. So if you give Cabrera the award just because he led the league in home runs, you're basically doing it because Josh Hamilton got hurt. He led his team to the playoffs. Granted, Cabrera was hot down the stretch and Trout cooled off but all wins count the same in standings. But you also have to consider that the Tigers won 88 games and the Angels won 89. And Trout missed the first 20 games, and the Angels went 6-14. With Trout on the roster the Angels had a .585 winning percentage. With Cabrera the Tigers were .543. Add to that the fact that all the teams in Trout's division (Rangers, A's and Mariners) had better team ERAs than any team in Cabrera's division. So if you give Cabrera the award just because his team made the playoffs, you're basically doing it because the White Sox (and the Twins and Royals) suck. Now that I have shot holes through the two biggest arguments in favor of Cabrera, let's look at the biggest thing Trout has going for him. The award is called Most Valuable Player. Not best hitter. Defense: according to UZR, Trout saved the Angels 11 runs with defense. Cabrera cost his team 10. Would this race even be a race if Trout had 11 more homers, and Cabrera 10 fewer? No, and runs saved on defense are every bit as important as runs created at bat. Base-running: Trout created 12 extra runs with his base-running thanks to his 49 steals (an 91% success rate) and Cabrera cost his team three runs. The reason it comes down to little things like defense and base-running is because offensively they are so close. Cabrera has slight advantage in OPS, but Trout takes OPS+ because of park advantage. Both players are exactly tied in wRC+ (weighted runs created plus), also an adjusted number. Those are all very good measures of total offensive production. Unlike RBI, which is frequently used to bolster Cabrera. Sure driving in runs is important, but runners need to be on base in order for that to happen. This is not just a debate of stats vs. scouts. It's the right stats vs. the wrong stats. This is not about WAR, notice I didn't even mention it. It is about the things that WAR tells us. That these two players are very equal in offensive production. But in value (the other key word in MVP) they're not even close. Trout contributed more to his team in the field and on the bases, enough to overcome the slight, very slight, deficit in offensive production. And he did it all at a position that is much more valuable (harder to fill) than the one Cabrera played. And that is why Mike Trout deserves to be the 2012 AL MVP.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
In order to have give the children of Fair Lawn a memorable Halloween in light of Hurricane Sandy, the town arranged two "trunk or treats" at local schools. Here's how it works. You park your car in the lot and hand candy to children out of the trunk, or in the cases of SUVs and minivan, out of the rear hatch/door. The event was scheduled to run 5:30 - 7:30, so we got there at 5, to make sure we got a parking spot. And to decorate our car. Jake from Jake and the Neverland Pirates and Julian as Nemo. And yes, this is the best picture of the two of them in costume. Cobra Kai costume.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Head Cases With all the focus on protecting quarterbacks, particularly from head injury, three big name QBs were concussed this week, and only one on an illegal hit. Jay Cutler was hit under the chin, which drew a flag (but was offset by a penalty on Cutler), but the hits on Michael Vick and Alex Smith were legal.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Two weeks ago today I stayed in the city after work due to the impending storm. That night our power went out. The following day we spent the evening at a friend’s house, going home only to sleep. The next day was Halloween; we hit the mall to try to give the kids some semblance of a normal Halloween. That was a disaster. Then Mrs. Poop fled to her parents’ house. I stayed home alone in a 55 degree house Wednesday and Thursday night before fleeing for Connecticut as well. Got home Saturday, was home Sunday, Did trunk or treat Monday night (more on that in another post) before working a million hours on Tuesday and then dealing with another snowstorm and finally getting back to normal, kind of, over the weekend. That’s a rough synopsis of the last two weeks. I am sure many of you feel the same way. Superstorm Sandy and the subsequent recovery were major disruptions to our established routines.
Syracuse beat San Diego State in what may be the last college basketball game on an aircraft carrier. The Orange were led by their slashers, Brandon Triche, Michael Carter-Williams and CJ Fair. Those three shot 20 of 41 for 49 points. The game was played on the deck of the USS Midway in San Diego. It was originally scheduled for Friday night and was delayed until Sunday afternoon because of the weather forecast which called for wind and rain. Once the game got going it was really cool to watch. The sun was out, there were shadows on the court, the backdrop was gorgeous.