Saturday, January 14, 2012

Weekly Picks

new orleans -3 1/2 SAN FRANCISCO
New Orleans cannot be stopped right now. Usually a good offense beats good defense but San Francisco won't be able to completely shut down the Saints, and they won't be able to score enough to keep up.

denver +13 1/2 NEW ENGLAND
I keep getting Tebow games wrong, I know it. I just think that maybe his confidence is back. If the Broncos can start by running the ball the way they did against New England last time, and then mix in a few long passes like they did last week, then they can keep it close. Remember, it was 3 fumbles that cost them last time the faced the Pats.

new york giants +7 1/2 GREEN BAY PACKERS
I learned my lesson about picking against the Giants last week. They really do have something going. I honestly don't know why they weren't a better regular season team. They have a good mutli-faceted offense, and a solid defensive line. If they can put pressure on Rodgers, they can keep this close.

BALTIMORE -7 1/2 houston

The Texans luck runs out. You can beat the Bengals with a third-string quarterback, but not the Ravens. I really think the Ravens are built for the playoffs with a good running game and a good defense. Their problem in the regular season was lpaying down to the level of the competition. They won't experience those lulls in the postseason.

Last Week: 1-3 (0 points)
Season: 39-50 (36 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (7-11)
Home Favorites: 1-0 (17-19)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (0-3)
Road Favorites: 0-1 (11-15)
Road Underdogs: 0-2 (11-13)

Friday, January 13, 2012

God Has a Tim Tebow Complex

People who believe in Tim Tebow say they have witnessed his miracles. They saw the last 5 minutes against the Dolphins. They cheered when he beat the Bears. They exalted when he threw an 80-yard touchdown pass in overtime to beat the Steelers in the playoffs.

People who don't believe in Tim Tebow say he is getting lucky. They say the Dolphins stink, the Bears were in prevent defense and the Steelers blew the coverage. They see the evidence, the passes that bounce, the 40-percent completion rate, and they know, Tim Tebow stinks.

The believers have faith.

The non-believers need to see proof.

Does any of this sound familiar?

So it has become in this NFL season that Tim Tebow has become an Iervese-like Christ-figure and has gained that status not in spite of, but because of all those who don't believe in him.

Here's where I stand on Tebow: I am not changing my initial view that he will never be a good NFL quarterback because he can't throw. We have seen him go through a stretch where he was reluctant to "pull the trigger" (John Elway's words), but when he plays with confidence, he can get the ball there on time, at least often enough to keep defenses honest.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Tim Tebow's Fire

John Parr, who wrote the song "St. Elmo's Fire" for the movie of the same name, has released a new version of his 80s hit, called "Tim Tebow's Fire." At first I liked it, and thought it was a cute song they would play on Denver-area radio stations. But then I listened to it. He basically changed two words and re-recorded it just to capitalize financially on Tebow's success. You want to make money asshole, write a new song, a good one. Now I hate this song. And yes, this transformation of opinion took all of about 6 hours.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Song of the Week

"Glory" - Jay-Z featuring Blue Ivy Carter
This is Jay-Z's song to his new daughter. They actually sampled some of her cries at the end it sounds like. It's actually pretty good with some nice sentimental lines about fatherhood, and about a previous miscarried pregnancy.

Monday, January 09, 2012

The NFL is Poop - Wild Card Round

Do You Believe in Miracles?
Tim Tebow did it again. One of the most exciting playoff games I've ever seen ends with Tim Tebow throwing an 80-yard touchdown pass. He made the best play of his career in overtime of a playoff game. He played the best game of his pro career in the playoffs. I have frequently said that Tebow possesses every quality a quarterback needs to be successful, except he can't throw. And that's what he showed here, the ability to perform your best when things are at their worst, when the game is on the line, that's a very valuable trait in a quarterback.

So How'd It Happen?
Just like Moses parting the Red Sea wasn't really a miracle, neither was this victory by Tebow, each had a reasonable explanation. In this case, the Broncos executed their game plan to perfection and the Steelers fell into their trap. The Broncos wanted to run and hit a few big passes once they had softened up the defense. The Steelers should have taken a page from the Chiefs book. The Chiefs played man coverage on the Broncos wideouts, forcing the receivers to win in coverage or forcing Tebow to make great throws. The Steelers didn't execute this and several times, including the last play of the game where Demaryius Thomas caught the ball in stride and ran it down the field. Tebow also had a 51-yarder to Thomas, a 30-yard TD (both part of a 80-yard drive), another one to Thomas for 58 (setting up the second TD) and a 40 yarder to fells. All that adds up to a 31.6 yards per completion, on 10 completions. That equals 316 yards. Tebow 3:16 says he did it again.

The Falcons Dropped a Deuce
The Atlanta Falcons scored only two points against the New York Giants, make them the first team to ever drop a deuce, literally (many have done it figuratively) in the playoffs. A lot of people are blaming Mike Smith for his two failed attempts on 4th and 1. I actually liked both calls, going for the touchdown and not the field goal. If Smith gets the blame, it should be for the play-calling, which was unimaginative and telegraphed. If Matt Ryan gets the blame it's for turtling up instead of reaching forward with the football to get the first down.

Right now the New Orleans Saints offense looks unstoppable. The Lions actually had them in check for the first half, until Drew Brees led them on 5 straight touchdown drives in the second. The Saints set a record for 626 yards, mostly because they kept throwing the ball at the end of the game when it was way out of reach. We all know the Lions secondary is one of the worst in the NFL so we'll see how they do against a better defense in the 49ers.

Worth the Wait
The Houston Texans waited a long time for their first playoff game. After several years of being touted as an upcoming contender, only to fall short because of the Colts, they finally got over the Indianapolis hump (with some help) and won the AFC South. Thanks to great performances from Arian Foster and JJ Watt, the Texans beat the Bengals in an entirely uninteresting game. I think they are but sacrificial lambs to the Ravens though.

Picture of the Week
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw flex their muscles after combining for 155 rushing yards. Those two backs will be needed again this week if the Giants hope to slow down the Packers.

If the Super Bowl Were Played Today
New Orleans Saints 45 New England Patriots 41

I know the Packers are 15-1 but I just can't ignore how perfect the Saints offense looks. I really hope both teams win this weekend so we can see that epic matchup in the Conference Championship.