Weekly Picks

My first losing week in over a month wasn't a disaster because the Patriots pounded the Bills. We're posting the picks early because I plan to feast on all three Thanksgiving games.

green bay -3 1/2 DETROIT
The Lions are not a good team. They have a good record, but they are not a good team. The Packers on the other hand are a really good team that continues to fly under the radar when it comes to the huge spreads a lot of the other top teams are up against every week. Do not believe that the Lions always come to play on Thanksgiving. I've seen them get killed. But I do know Brett Favre usually shines brightest on the big stages.

DALLAS -14 new york jets
What I wouldn't give to get this spread down by 1/2 a point. The Jets are not going to follow their win against the Steelers with a win against the Cowboys on the road, that is not going to happen. So now we're asking, how much will they lose by? I think the Cowboys can stop the Jets run which would put more pressure on Kellen Clemens. Remember Clemens didn't have a big passing game against the Steelers, he made the plays, but the running game carried them. Dallas will definitely be able to put up a lot of points on the Jets but they basically need to take a 24 point lead for me to start to feel comfortable.

indianapolis -11 1/2 ATLANTA
I know injuries have crippled the Colts and I know the Falcons have perked up lately, but both teams "are who we thought they were." The Colts are still really good, the Falcons are still really bad and the two teams are being quarterbacked by Peyton Manning and Joey Harrington. When you put it that way it seems like the spread should be more than it is.

CLEVELAND -3 1/2 houston
The Browns needed a lucky break to beat the Ravens but I'm shocked they're only laying 3 1/2 against the lowly Texans. I will almost always pick against a bad team coming off a win. I know the Texans have Schaub and Andre Johnson back but I don't think that's enough to keep up with the Browns offense. I expect a lot of points, something like 31-27 Browns.

Best Bet
NEW ENGLAND -21 philadelphia eagles
I think this might be the week the Patriots don't cover a huge spread. I've been quietly confident every other week the spread has been double digits but I'm very uneasy about 21. First of all, I think the primetime NBC performance against the Bills cost me the Patriots tax I was talking about a few weeks ago. Second of all, it looks like the Eagles may be without Donovan McNabb. Either way this is a problem because I think A.J. Feeley is pretty good, and if McNabb starts I know he's pretty good. But I am determined to stick with the Patriots at least until Week 16 when they've clinched everything.

Last Week: 2-3 (3 points)
Season so far: 30-25 (33 points - tied for 4th, 2 points out of 1st)
Best bet: 1-0 (7-4)
Home favorites: 0-1 (10-6)
Home underdogs: 0-0 (3-0)
Road favorites: 2-1 (14-11)
Road underdogs: 0-1 (3-8)