The Curious Case of Chien-Ming Wang

The first three starts of Chien-Ming Wang's 2009 season are so historically bad that I can't recall ever seeing a pitcher with similar numbers, certainly not one with his previous record of accomplishments. Here's the pitching lines:

4/8 vs. Baltimore: 3 2/3 innings 9 hits 7 runs 1 home run 3 walks 0 strikeouts
4/13 vs. Tampa Bay: 1 inning 6 hits 8 runs 0 home runs 3 walks 1 strikeout
4/18 vs. Cleveland: 1 1/3 innings 8 hits 8 runs 1 home run 0 walks 1 strikeout

On aggregate Wang has an ERA of 34.50, he's allowing nearly 5 base runners per inning and opponents are hitting .622 against him. If in his next appearance he begins baseball's longest-ever scoreless innings streak, his ERA will still be above 3.00.

There are three reasons this could be happening to Wang with this suddenness.

1) It's physical. So far he says he is fine and doctors are checking him to see if he reinjured the foot that caused him to miss much of last season.

2) It's mental. After basically blowing the 2007 playoffs, then missing half of 2008, and now this, maybe Wang's brain is getting in the way of his body.

3) His luck ran out. Sabremetricians put a premium on strikeout pitchers based on the theory that against all pitchers (good and bad) the batting average on balls put in play will be pretty even. If the hitter makes contact, the ball is equally as likely to be a hit or an out for any pitcher. Therefore the best pitchers strikeout a lot of guys and the other guys, it will catch up to eventually. Now there are guys like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine who successfully kept their BABIPs (batting average on balls put in play) below league average for their entire careers. By the way, home run rate matters here as well, Wang has always had a great one due to this sinker. This rough start may indicate that Wang isn't the next Glavine or Maddux, and all the balls hit against him that went for outs in prior years, are finally starting to fall in -- all at once.