The Final Four is Set and No One is More Surprised Than I Am

Saturday morning things were starting to look pretty rosy for my bracket. I had Kansas State, Kentucky and Baylor, and can’t believe none of those teams won.

I’m even more shocked that 200 people have all four final four teams correct on espn.com’s tournament challenge.

Butler beat Kansas State in almost the exact same way as they beat Syracuse. They got out to an early lead (20-10). They forced a lot of turnovers (20). They gave up the lead late in the second half (52-51). They went on a run (12-4) to seal the game and scored the same amount of points (63).

West Virginia beating Kentucky to me is one of the biggest surprises of the tournament. I still don’t know how they did it so easily. Joe Missoula picked a good time to have the best game of his career.

Tom Izzo is a fuckin genius. In the last 12 years he made the Final Four 6 times. He’s done it as a favorite, a 1 seed three times and a 2 seed last year. He's also done it as a 5 seed without beating any higher seed teams (this year). And he's done it as a 5 seed by beating the #1 and #2 seeds (2005, when he played Vermont in the second round, fresh off their upset of Syracuse). The only time he lost an Elite Game they were a 7 seed. The numbers on Izzo and Michigan State are just amazing. And since he’s done it with three distinct groups of players he has to have at least some hand in the success.

I'm still impressed with Baylor even though they lost. LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter are awesome, and Epke Udoh is one of the most athletic big men in the nation.

I think they got screwed by a bad call. With 4 and a half minutes left Quincy Acy drove and hit a teardrop over Greg Zoubek. But he was called with a questionable charge. I think Zoubek was still moving. The call completely changed the game. Instead of a 4-point lead, Baylor was up 2, and down 1 a few seconds later.

Duke did nothing to dispel its reputation as a team of annoying white pussies. Kyle Singler didn't show up, missing all 10 shots from the field. Scheyer also looked like a little bitch when he swung his elbows and started a minor incident which inexplicably ended with only Quincy Acy getting teed up.

But I will give Duke credit, they are tougher this year than most Duke teams have been, and their work on the offensive glass won this game for them.

Sweet 16: Friday Thoughts

Tennessee's victory over Ohio State basically means no one will get all the Final Four teams right. Maybe someone had Michigan State but I doubt it. No matter what we'll get the lowest seed in the Final Four since George Mason in 2006.

Evan Turner played a great game, he even invoked the rare "smell the onions" from Raf.

Very impressed with Tennessee. They really don't have a lot of great players, but they win the games.

I'm so happy Wayne Chism got rid of that headband, so long as he refused to wear it properly.

I still want Bruce Pearl to do something outrageous or funny though.

Baylor completely laid the smack down on St. Mary's. Kind of embarrassing. And once again proof that upsets are nice but sometimes they lead to mismatches down the road.

At one point Baylor led 54-19, a 35 point lead, and almost triple SMU's score, shocking considering it happened in the second half.

I know Baylor can play great aggressive defense, but they don't normally shoot that well. Tweety and LaceDarius shot 7-13 from downtown.

Omar Samhan had a decent game with 15 and 9 but it just didn't matter, Baylor was too good on this night.

Sweet 16: Thursday Thoughts

Another great game in what has become a legendary tournament. Kansas State over Xavier in double overtime. A great back and forth between 2 great backcourts. Kansas State’s Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen combined for 53 points and Xavier’s Terrell Hollway and Jordan Crawford combining for 58.

Crawford (whose name will soon be changed to “Jordan Crawford the guy who dunked on LeBron) had the onions moment of the night when he nailed a 3-pointer from waaaaaaay downtown (bang!) to tie it up with four seconds left in the first overtime.

But it never would have gotten that far if not for a lucky break for Xavier at the end of regulation. There’s always a big debate about fouling when you’re up three to put your opponent on the line instead of giving up a prayer of a three. Clemente tried to grab Holloway but the refs didn’t call it. By the time Chris Merriwether got to him he was in his shooting motion and drew the shooting foul. Holloway made all three which takes some onions in a the final seconds of 3-point game.

We finally got the Gus Johnson we’ve been waiting for all tournament. He was in peak form during this game.

I think I may start a Facebook group called “Onions! Ha HA! Get Bill Raftery and Gus Johnson on the same announce team.” I would watch the 5-3 game from Smist’s high school if those two guys were doing the broadcasting.

Cornell doesn't see too many players like John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins in the Ivy League.

They took a 10-2 lead with about 15 left in the first half. With 12 minutes left in the second they were down 38-21. That's 23 minutes and 11 points.

Everyone talked about how Cornell was for real because they can shoot it, especially from the outside. Well they didn't make those shots (5-21 from 3) against Kentucky. And I think a lot of that has to do with Kentucky's defense.

Great run for Cornell but they just can't compete with a team with that much athleticism.

Cornell lost 5 games this season to Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Penn. Regular season RPI numbers 1, 2, 5 and 299. The other loss was Seton Hall, #60.

I didn't see much of the West Virginia-Washington game but I think without Truck Bryant the Mountaineers will not be able to beat Kentucky.

The Dome didn't seem as empty as I thought it would be. It didn't become a national story like I thought it would but it definitely filled up with disappointed people after the Syracuse game ended.

Cornell was up 10-2, then down 38-21, a 36-11 run over a 23 minute span

Bad End to a Good Year

Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. 18 of them, 12 in the first half.

Rick Jackson was only credited (blamed?) with three of them but it sure seemed like more. It felt like every time he got the ball he got nervous and would lose it, telegraph his pass or chuck it into a crowd. It almost would have been better had he fouled out because at least they wouldn't have tried to get the ball inside if DeShonte Riley had been in there.

Wes Johnson played another good game but he may lack the killer instint, the necessary selfishness to be an absolute take-over "give me the ball and go to hell" type of player in the NBA. We needed him to go be the inside in the inside-outside games with Rautins but he didn't really get himself into the low post.

But all those first half troubles aside SU came back and took the lead at 40-39 and then again at 54-50. It was at that time I started to believe. We were hitting every shot and suffocating Butler and I thought we were close to breaking their spirit.

But then the ghost of Jim Boeheim reared its ugly head, up 4 with the ball Scoop killed 25 seconds of clock the chucked up a three without a pass or an attempted drive. Too early to waste a trip.

The next three possessions were a jacked 3 by Rautins, a drive into the defense by Scoop and the drive where Rautins got stripped and instead of going after the ball he went after the foul call. He got neither.

Over that span Butler hit a 3 when Scoop didn't get out on the shooter, Howard spun around Jackson and then another 3 from the corner off the backboard. That's the way the ball bounces sometimes.

it's a shame to see Andy Rautins go out like this. He was a great player and a fan favorite, and as much as I love Wes Johnson and Carmelo Anthony for the one year we had them there's something special about seeing a scrawny 18-year-old boy and watching him grow into a man over five years to become a pretty awesome player.

It seems like scouts think Rautins is a late second round pick at best with a marginal NBA career but I think he could turn into a decent pro. He can shoot, he can pass, he has decent size for a 2 guard and his quickness might be questionable I think he's gotten strong enough to play NBA caliber defense.

This loss was also a shame for Arinze Onuaku who also blossomed into a pretty good player (if you don't count that he shoots free throws like a 3rd grade girl) during his time at SU. I'm still a little puzzled why he wasn't able to go if it was just a muscle strain. We definitely could have used him to at least post up and kick out for the shooters.

I love Scoop Jardine. Yes he makes some bad plays at times but he has a decent outside shot but he can also get to the basket and for the most part he knows when to do what.

Scoop will lead next year's team along with his NBA Jam partner Kris Joseph and his high school sweetheart Rick Jackson. Brandon Triche will probably play point but I really don't see a lot of potential. They'll be joined by a couple good recruits including 7-foot Fab Melo.

I bet DeShonte Riley ends up transferring this summer or next. I just don't see how Boeheim is going to find playing time for 2 7-footers and Rick Jackson.

To sum up the year, the 2009-2010 season was sort of like "Full Metal Jacket." You weren't expecting anything, it started off great and had a puzzling and incredibly disappointing ending. But when we talk about them we remember the good lines/good times and realize we may have to wait a very long time to see another movie/team as good as this one again.

NCAA Tournament Thoughts: Sunday

See separate post for Syracuse's domination of Gonzaga.

I slept through most of these games and had to fast forward to catch up on the action so basically all I saw was the two down-to-the wire games, Michigan State over Maryland and Purdue over Texas ATM.

Michigan State blew a big lead then held off hard charging Maryland. In the final 40 seconds there were four made baskets and 4 lead changes. First Greivis Vazquez, who is fuckin incredible hit a jumper, then he answered Draymond Green's basket with another one on a series of incredible dribbles. But his efforts were wiped out as the crosscourt pass that almost hit his teammate in the head found the hands of Korie Luscious who nailed a huge 3 for the victory.

But the injury to Kalin Lucas (achilles) that allowed Maryland back in the game (they smothered the Spartans with the press) will likely cost them against Northern Iowa or perhaps Ohio State down the road. They just aren't a very good team without him and he is out 4 to 6 months.

The other great game was an overtime thriller in which Purdue taught Michigan State a thing or two about winning without your best player. Chris Kramer stepped up to knock of Texas ATM. Only thing is, his basket came with 4 seconds left, making it nowhere near as exciting as the Michigan State game.

When is someone going to point out that Pittsburgh underperforms in the tournament every single year? Is it Jamie Dixon's fault? Is the style of play to blame? Or are they just an undertalented team that works hard and overachieves during the regular season?

Those white kids from Cornell sure can shoot. But I have a feeling they are going to get a rude awakening from Kentucky. The spread is 10, but I'd take the Wildcats by 20. Cornell isn't going to get those open shots against a much more athletic team.

But with Syracuse and Cornell in the Sweet 16, and Kentucky and West Virginia playing in the Dome, Central New York is the college basketball capital of the world. Too bad Siena couldn't make it an NY trio.

Duke was written off at the beginning of this tournament as people tried to avoid going all chalk by picking someone else from that region. But this Duke team is different than previous underachieving versions in that they have a lot of size and don't get pushed around as easily. I still expect them to falter against Baylor.

Conferences are getting a lot of attention and people are killing the Big East. Yes, 6 of the conferences 8 teams lost 5 of them in upsets. But that doesn't detract from what the conference did all year. Was Kansas not the best team all season just because they lost? I know one team losing is more of a fluke, and less telling than 6 teams losing but still, the Big East is very strong, just had a bad weekend.

Three potential Cinderellas are still around. I don't count Washington because an underachieving team with a lot of talent from a big conference just doesn't have that cuddly feel to it. So I look #9 Northern Iowa, #10 St. Mary's and #12 Cornell. As I said earlier I don't think Cornell has a prayer against Kentucky. I don't think St. Mary's will beat Baylor because they will guard Samhan a little more aggressively and probably shut down the open looks for SMU's shooters as well. But I will say I think Northern Iowa will beat a Lucas-less Michigan State team and face Ohio State for the chance to become the next George Mason.

Syracuse vs. Gonzaga: Second Round

Another dominating performance by the Syracuse Orange absolutely eviscerating the Gonzaga Bulldogs from the opening tip.

We completely took Gus Johnson out of both of our games this weekend. We didn’t even get one “haHA!” out him I don’t think. He did have one dynamite drop-in calling Rick Jackson “The Ruler.” But I don’t think anyone but Bill and I noticed. Though Juice might be chuckling now. Gus will get another chance as he is broadcasting the West Regional.

There were a few tense moments early in the game when Rick Jackson picked up his second foul. Stupidly Boeheim left him in the game and after failing to block out and allowing an offensive rebound Jackson committed his third foul with 9 minutes left in the first half.

Luckily DeShonte Riley came in and filled the void on defense. His offense though was another matter entirely. On his first three touches he airballed a 3, traveled and got the ball stripped. It was funny because as soon as he came in Billy lamented the fact that SU had no interior presence on offense. Riley did eventually pull his head out of his ass and made a sweet pass to set up a Brandon Triche layup.

But we didn’t need Riley because we were shooting so well from the outside. Wes Johnson’s hand obviously isn’t hurting anymore he hit 11 of 16 overall and 4 of 6 from 3-point range. It seems quite likely his hand injury and his shooting slump were related.

Rautins added 24 points on 5 of 9 from downtown. I love that little white guy.




I hope we get Onuaku back but if the rest of the team plays that way we may not need him.

There will be tougher opponents, there will be teams with better big men, there will be teams with better perimeter D and there will be nights when the team doesn’t shoot that well, but when Syracuse plays the way they did against Gonzaga, no one, except maybe Kentucky.

It also helped that Gonzaga made only 3 for 21 3-pointers. After the game Boeheim basically said you can’t beat the zone shooting that poorly and if you do you will lose.



Up next, another set of Bulldogs, the Butler Bulldogs. That game starts at 7:07 pm on Thursday night which works out well for me since I'll be able to watch the entire thing before going to work.

But it doesn't work out quite as well for some people in Syracuse. Anyone who bought tickets to the Sweet 16 in Syracuse has either two choices: miss the Syracuse game, or don't go to the Dome until it's over. A few years ago the NCAA abolished the rule preventing host teams from playing at the same time as the games they are hosting. This is not just a screw-the-fans thing. I have a feeling the first game Thursday night (West Virginia vs. Washington) will be mostly empty until the crowd files in for Kentucky-Cornell. Unless SU students can sell their tickets to Cornell students.

One more note from Skypeing with Billy: The hardest part is getting our TVs lined up so we are reacting to the same things at the same time. I paused my TV and got it right in line with Billy's and told him we were in sync. Like always. Two seconds later the ubiquitous commercial promoting the 60 Minutes story on the Bryan Brothers came on and said "they're always in sync." Billy and I cracked up, Al got a little nervous.

NCAA Tournament Thoughts: Saturday

Well, I did it again. I correctly picked the 2 seed which would lose in the second round, but picked the wrong opponent to beat them. Villanova limped into the end of the season and barely got past Robert Morris. Scottie Reynolds had another horrible game and probably hurt his draft stock.

But Omar Samhan definitely helped his stock. He's the latest in a long line of big men from mid-majors who play well in the tournament, get drafted in the middle of the first round and are never heard from again. Rafael Arujao and Patrick O'Bryant come to mind but I'm sure I could think of others. The thing I like about Samhan is he has some good offensive moves, he's not just good because he relies on size against mostly smaller opponents. He also has some attitude and a cool chin curtain beard.

But no one has better facial hair than the mutton chops of Lucas O'Rear. And when you throw in his name and his tattoo (a shamrock with O'Rear above it) he's a top five revelation from this tournament.

Bill Self wears a piece right?

Tyrel Reid is white? And so is his sister?

For all the reasons Kansas-Northern Iowa was a great game I really enjoyed watching Cole Aldrich and Jordan Eglseder go at it. Two legitimate big men challenging each other on both ends.

An absolutely earth-shaking upset. One of the biggest upsets of all-time. And it all happened because Ali Farokhmanesh pulled off the biggest onions play ever. Up one, 40 seconds left, he shoots a wide open 3. If it goes in you win the game, if it misses Kansas gets the ball because no one was underneath. That's what it came down to.

Sure there were lots of other bad plays by Kansas including two late charges that cost them -- but were absolutely the right call -- but that shot, that shot will go down in history. Add to it the one he hit the other day against UNLV and this kid has got major stones.

The problem with a first day of upsets reared its ugly head today. Yes, the Murray State Butler game was good, the Old Dominion-Baylor and Ohio-Tennessee games were mismatches.

And then there was another 3-11 blowout. But this time it was the 11. How does Washington play so badly all season and bring its A-game at tournament time?

Total domination by Kansas State and of course Kentucky. Without Kansas around I don't think anyone is going to beat Kentucky.

Jacob Pullen and Omar Samhan are bringing back the chin curtain. Abe Lincoln must be proud.

Syracuse vs. Vermont: First Round

So an easy victory just as we would have hoped. Wes Johnson started off on fire and SU was winning 35-10.

They did allow Vermont and comeback after that but the game was never really in doubt.

Scoop was great, way too fast for the slow Vermont white guys.

Kris Joseph was motivated to play against his brother who, by the way, had an atrocious game.

I don't want to put too much stock into what happened in this game because the competition was so inferior but I am glad the game was a laugher (it was on TV for only about 10 minutes) and we took care of business without Onuaku.

Boeheim actually got DeShaunte Riley, James Southerland and Mookie Jones into the game. Though I don't think we'll get valuable contributions from any of those guys once the competition stiffens.

Gonzaga will be a tough game, especially if Onuaku doesn't play again -- which he probably won't -- but still SU should beat them if they can avoid bad turnovers.

NCAA Tournament Thoughts: Friday Night

Maybe Master Bates is right, I should just pick every 5 seed and give up ever trying to get those upsets right. Last year 3 12s won so I picked 2 this year, neither of them came up and I am 0-3 in those 5-12 games, and 1-3 in the 6-11 games. There are upsets, and I know there are, yet I always pick the wrong ones.

They just showed the Naismith Watch commercial for Wes Johnson. I would vote if only standard text message rates didn't apply. I don't even know what that means, they could charge me $1000 for all I know. Wes will have to win this one without me.

New Mexico State's band just played "Livin on a Prayer." At least I think it was the NMSU band. Michigan State is winning by 13 so it wouldn't make sense for them to play a song about the union being on strike and being down on your luck it's tough...oooooh so tough.

Interesting story about Arkansas-Pine Bluff. They started the year 0-11 by playing a murderous non-conference schedule, all on the road. Five of those games were against top-50 RPI teams (Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, UTEP and Missouri). That's 4th in the nation in non-conference SOS. The interesting thing is they went 17-4 in their remaining games. Still their overall SOS was 275 (30 slots better than the next best SWAC team) because their best conference opponent was RPI 199. But the goal was to ready the team for the tournament and they won the conference and beat Winthrop so maybe it worked. But it didn't help them avoid an ass-kicking by Duke.

Two of APB's opponents playing each other, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State. They are 33 and 32 in RPI so it should have been a close game and it was. I wasn't impressed with James Anderson and I think Derrick Favors looks a lot like a guy who will be drafted high and be a complete bust.

No team fucked up the late game so far in this tournament more than Oklahoma State. Georgia Tech didn't get a field goal in the last 8 minutes. Every time they had the ball OSU fouled them. They were 0-5 from the field and still outscored OSU. James Anderson chucked up an unnecessary three then the Cowboys took too long to foul, just a complete botch job. The Big 12 ends the first round 5-2.

More fathers and sons:
Glen Rice Jr. is on Georgia Tech
Johnny Dawkins Jr is on Duke
Leadrick Eackles of Oakland is the son of former Washington Bullet Ledell Eackles
Andy Rautins of Syracuse is the son of Leo Rautins (why don't they ever mention this?)

Michigan State a team known for its steadiness and toughness, and good coach blew a 16-point lead to New Mexico State. But they eventually held on to win, mostly because of size. They couldn't hit a shot but they kept getting offensive rebounds.

Louisville came out flat and was down 22-4 before they even got into it. Despite a late comeback they couldn't overcome Cal and the Pac-10 beats the Big East twice in the first round.

I didn't see much of the Gonzaga, Maryland or Ohio State games.

I did hear them say that Gary Williams and Tom Penders each entered the game with 648 career wins.

NCAA Tournament Thoughts: Early Friday

Not an inspiring early set of games.

West Virginia looked to be in trouble for a few minutes, ok a few seconds. Down 10-0 they went on a 73-33 run. Finally a Big East team not crapping its pants.

Xavier beats Minnesota, not much notable in this game except Jordan Crawford going off. He's the guy who dunk on LeBron over the summer and Nike confiscated the video making it a much bigger deal than it would have been. The video is poor quality, you can't even tell who it is, and it's basketball. Everyone who tries on defense gets dunked on every once in a while.



Even the best game wasn't a good game. Cornell absolutely shot the lights out to beat Temple. I believe that makes 25 out of 26 years of a 64-team field with a 12-5 upset. So far I am 0-2 in those game this year with Utah State and Michigan State remaining. Ryan Wittman was great, love those white guys. Can definitely see them winning again and heading to the Sweet 16. Yes, I say that even though I didn't think they were going to beat Temple because Wisconsin is a better matchup for them.

I feel kind of bad for Jems. Poor guy really wants Siena to become the Gonzaga of the East. They didn't play bad, I just think even without Hummel Purdue has more talent. I can't crow too much about this one because Cornell did pull of the upset.

Wisconsin survived! They are such an interesting team. They beat a lot of superior teams but often struggle against worse teams. And when a team does that they normally are a talented bunch who play without discipline and don't take opponents seriously. In Wisconsin's case they frustrate good teams but can't put away bad ones. They could be in for a shock when they play Cornell. The Big Red could be our Cinderella.

Apparently the only highlight of this Pittsburgh-Oakland game was a vicious bloody cut. I didn't see it but I am glad the Big East is bringing the pain a little more today and I hope Louisville and of course Syracuse continue the rejuvenation.

Missouri beats Clemson in one of the best track meets of the tournament so far. Oliver Purnell is the worst coach ever and Mike Anderson is really good. We should have seen this coming.

The only reason this game pissed me off is because it was Tigers vs. Tigers. I thought the only 1st round matchups of teams with the same nickname would be Utah State vs. Texas A&M. What the fuck is an Aggie anyway?

I've been saving that observation since Selection Sunday and I should make it a separate post since no one is reading these Tournament thoughts things I'm posting. So it's really just an exercise in narcissism, but since the entire blog is, I guess I shouldn't be bothered.

I'll start tonight's observations with Aggies vs. Aggies.

NCAA Tournament Thoughts: Thursday Night

Kentucky's domination was so complete CBS didn't even show a minute of it and I didn't bother to check in on it with March Madness On Demand, which by the way would be the best thing since sliced bread if it weren't sooooo much better than sliced bread that it's an almost an insult by comparison.

Shocked about the way Georgetown got completely dominated by Ohio. They played no defense at all. Amazing they looked so good against Syracuse and then run off the court by Ohio. Usually these monumental upsets start with the Cinderella getting a big lead, blowing it all then hanging on. But Georgetown never got within more than seven.

I really thought we were going to have an incident when Kevin Harlan said Ali Farokhmanesh is terrorizing UNLV with his bombs from deep. Thankfully he never said that. But I really thought he was headed down that road.

Big win for Northern Iowa though I really wish the committee would start to consider conferences when matching teams up, especially in 8-9 and 7-10 games. I would rather see Northern Iowa, UNLV, Richmond and St. Mary's get a crack at Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas and Wake Forest than matching up against each other.

The Washington-Marquette game is a contrast in coacing styles. There is the manic near-breakdown intensity of Buzz Williams and the cool of LoRo. How has that nicknme not caught on yet? We can call a grown man Buzz but we can't call Lorenzo Romar LoRo?

But the teams play a similar style which made for an awesome game. No defense required, a lot of running, a lot of gunning and some big shot making including that game-winner by Pondexter.

So the Big East has lost 2 6s and a 3 and almost a 2. This could be the worst performance for any conference in history. Good thing we got 8, we'll need them.

Lehigh took an early 12-4 lead on Kansas before the Jayhawks went on a 21-2 run and I thought ended the game. But Lehigh came back with 9 straight points. And they actually hung in pretty well through most of the game.

Texas against Wake Forest was the hardest game for me to predict. I had Wake Forest but I switched it to Texas when I considered that both teams struggled down the stretch but at least Texas lost to good teams.

Bruce Pearl's son plays for him at Tennessee. I always think that must be hard at this level (see: Hawkins, Cody) but especially if you father is Bruce Pearl.

UNLV has Steve "Snapper" Jones's son. Remember when Snapper and Walton used to bicker incessantly with Bill Walton when the NBA was on NBC. I think they drove Tom Hammond to an early grave.

San Diego State has a player named B.J. Gay? Really, Mr. and Mrs. Gay, really? I've been working on a theory about how most last names have at least one name that obviously doesn't work. If your last name is Gay, BJ is probably that name. He might want to go the Marvin Gaye route and an E on the end. I know it doesn't do much but it's a start.

Note: I know his name is actually DJ but that's not as funny.

And speaking of names, doesn't Skyler McBee sound like a character on the "Andy Griffith Show?"

I really want Wayne Chism to wear his headband like a normal person.

Insane finish to Texas-Wake Forest. Throughout the game whenever one team had the advantage, they immediately lost it. Early in OT, Texas made a couple steals, hit a couple 3s and took an 8-point lead. But two missed free throws by a 90% shooter (J'Covan Brown) cost Texas.

That was the third overtime game of the day, more than all of last year's tournament.

What an incredible day of games! Not just upsets, but close games, exciting games and well-played games.

My bracket is completely fucked but man was this fun!

NCAA Tournament Thoughts: Early Thursday

Anyone who was at work and missed these three games missed a whole lot.

Notre Dame's season was so interesting. They were good with Harangody, then good without him because they switched from an uptempo to a slowdown style. But they had some difficulty working Harangody back in. He scored only two baskets both at the end of the game off missed 3s Notre Dame really needed.

Jimmer Fredette is the breakout star of the first round. Yes he had 10 extra minutes to get his 37 points but he hit a couple of big-time "onions!" 3s in overtime.

Too bad Kenny Boynton fouled out, they were locked in a pretty good duel until them.

You think Jay Wright wishes he'd chosen another way to make his "minor teaching point?" I have no idea what that means. Either they did something serious and Wright is covering it up, or Wright made a huge mistake by underestimating Robert Morris.

Maybe they broke curfew because once the game started it looked like Reynolds was a little sleep-deprived. But he did hit a huge shot to help them win the game.

It just proves why upsets are so hard. The better teams have bigger guys, two Nova players stuffed an RMU guy on the way to the hoop. Eventually talent wins out -- most of the time.

It just keeps getting better. Murray State, incredible shot. Vanderbilt did everything right there, they switched screens were right in his face forced a pass, then forced the shooter away from the basket. Danero Thomas just hit a great shot.

Danero is money!!!!!!

Ay que lastima.

I know the Law of Independent Trials says this game has no impact on the Siena-Purdue game but two 13s have never won in the same year.

Baylor got a scare. Considering I banked my entire bracket on them I'm more than a little worried but they get an easy draw with Old Dominion beating Notre Dame. And they might catch another break.

I am now convinced St. Mary's will beat Villanova. I feel like every year I pick the right number two seed to lose in the first round, but I always pick the wrong team to beat them. My most vivid recollection of this is when Anfernee Hardaway and Memphis (nee Memphis State) beat Seton Hall, I had expected Western Kentucky to do it. Anyway, if I'm right Baylor doesn't play a single-digit seed until possibly Duke in the regional Final.

St. Mary's had the better inside player and Richmond couldn't match up.

Kansas State dominating North Texas in our first blowout of the tournament.

And the last game of our early session is another blowout. UTEP was actually leading by 6 in the second half, but Butler went on a 28-6 run to put this game away. There goes one of my 12-5 upsets, but I still have Utah State over Texas A&M.

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year

I am so excited for the NCAA Tournament. I am home and ready to go and not going back to work until Monday.

I will be here all weekend watching basketball and assisting in potty-training Chase.

Please check back for frequent updates of my random tournament thoughts.

The best pre-tournament Syracuse team of the last 20 years enters the NCAA with a Final Four or Bust attitude, let's hope they get at least that far.

NCAA Tournament Preview: The Top Seeds

East: This region is Kentucky's to lose. West Virginia is a hot team right now but I just don't see them being able to match Kentucky. And it's not because of John Wall. DeMarcus Cousins will have too much size for a generally smallish WVU team. The 3 seed in this region, New Mexico is a good team but often good teams from smaller conferences that get seeded this high (other than Memphis recently) don't have the talent to match the top teams. The four seed in this region, Wisconsin, could pose the biggest threat to Kentucky by slowing the game down and frustrating Wall and Kentucky's other young stars.

Midwest: I have not seen anyone pick anyone other than Kansas to get through this region despite the fact that people complained Kansas has gotten an unfair draw. I really like Ohio State and think Evan Turner is the best player in the country. With Georgetown and Maryland also in this region I just don't think anyone can stop this epic 1 vs 2 matchup in the Regional Final.

West: This is a tough region for Syracuse but I think most people expect them to win it. Kansas State is also a very good team with good guard play, the kind of team people like in the tournament. There isn't a lot of confidence in Pitt. Even when they had really good teams they always underachieved in the tournament because they would win games with effort and brute force but that doesn't work against better teams. That should happen when they run into Kansas State.

South: This one is wide open. Only one year did all four number one seeds make the Final Four. Almost everyone believes Duke is the most vulnerable to miss it this year. That comes even as people say Duke has the easiest road. I actually think this region is wide open for Baylor. Baylor could lose to bigger stronger teams but they can run past anyone. A team like Villanova is perfectly suited for Baylor's game, and Baylor is playing much better than Nova right now. That leaves Baylor against Duke in a regional final, I think. This year Duke has more size than they normally do but they are still a bunch of white pussies who lose every year when someone hits them in the mouth.

Final Four picks: Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas State and Baylor

Note: contrary to popular belief the Big 12 is the best conference this year, not the Big East.

National Champion: This is one of the toughest decisions picking a winner since 2005 when Illinois and North Carolina were in it. The quandary is the same, the more talented team against the more proven winner. Kentucky has the most talent, but three of their top players are freshmen. I don't necessarily think experience is as important as those TV talking heads do, especially because Kentucky has always managed to find a way to win these close games this year. But I just have a feeling about Kansas and I think the Cole Aldrich-DeMarcus Cousins matchup could decide this year's tournament so I am picking Kansas to win for the 2nd time in three years.

President Obama and ESPN Try to Spell Syracuse

President Obama unveiling his NCAA Tournament picks on ESPN.
For the record I have no problem with this and hate people who use the old "doesn't he have better things to do" line.
I actually like a President who does a bracket.
My only problem with it is his populist picks, even his upsets are populist (Cornell, Siena).
And his horrible spelling of Syracuse, going with "Sycasuse" (before Andy Katz points out his mistake and the President laughs at his spelling and corrects it to Sycacuse) which isn't as bad as ESPN's graphic of "Syracsue" which is worse because they should have had time to spell check.

NCAA Tournament Preview: Syracuse

The best Syracuse team in 20 years enters the NCAA Tournament with high hopes as well as serious questions.

Here are the problems with SU:

1) Injuries: The quad injury to Arinze Onuaku and the hand injury of Wes Johnson cast serious doubt on the team's ability to play to their potential during this tournament. But Johnson's injury seems to be getting better and Onuaku's doesn't seem as bad as we first thought. And by the time the real competition picks up SU will have played only three games in 3 weeks.

2) The bench: You could either say SU has a great bench or a horrible one. The first two guys off the bench are better than some of the starters on most teams, including SU. But after that SU has nothing, no one who has played any meaningful minutes all season. If one player is hurt, foul trouble is likely, and no one else will be around to provide help.

3) The 2-3 zone: Syracuse's biggest weapon is also often its downfall. It often confuses teams that aren't used to it, especially not played with the aggressiveness of this year's team, but any good coach should be able to prepare his team for something he is guaranteed to see. Teams that get hot from outside or crash the offensive boards routinely tear up the zone.

Syracuse is definitely good enough to make it to the Final Four and challenge Kansas or Kentucky for the national title, or even win it all, but I actually have them going out to Kansas State in the Elite 8.

NCAA Tournament Preview: The Sleepers

For many people the most fun part of the NCAA Tournament is filling out the bracket and rooting for the alma mater of your sister's husband, cute girl at work or in the case of at least one Poophead, your favorite blogger.

For me my favorite part is watching the games.

But second is picking those sleepers that screw up everyone else's bracket but make yours. And I'm not just talking first round. There is almost always a 2-seed losing in the second round. And except for 2008 we often get a Final Four team most people didn't expect.

First round:
Almost every year a 13 seed beats a 4 and this year the trendy pick is Siena. They won first round games two straight years and now they draw a depleted Purdue team playing without Robbie Hummel. But people forget all season Purdue was great, not because of one player but because of a balanced lineup. Also Siena is different this year. In four games against top 50 teams they lost all four. So don't pick Siena, no matter what Jems tells you. If a 4 does go down it'll be Vanderbilt.

Every year (except maybe once) a 12 seed beat a 5. And no matter what Master Bates and Papa Poop have been telling me for 20 years, it will happen again this year and I've got at least a 25% chance of getting it right.

This year's trendy pick is Cornell. And though I hate going along with this crowd the trend says trendy upset picks do pretty well. But styles make fights and this isn't a good matchup for Cornell. They could upset a major conference team with a lot of athleticism if they could slow down that team, frustrate them and get open shots against an undisciplined defense. Temple is a little too tough and aggressive on D to fall for that.

So give me UTEP over Butler though I could see Utah State over Texas A&M. Both schools were great all year and stumbled in their conference tournaments. I'm a little disappointed all the 12s are small conference teams, I usually like a tested BCS school.

And I guess I need an 11 over a 6 as well. The Big East has two 6s (Notre Dame and Marquette) and I like both those teams and I think Minnesota shot its load in the Big 10 tournament. So that leaves me with San Diego State over Tennessee. I think Tennessee is ripe for an upset because they had huge highs (wins over Kansas and Kentucky) but also losses to sub-100 teams (USC & Georgia) and they got blown out by Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. They may finally be petering out after taking a huge talent hit when Tyler Smith got kicked off the team.

Second round:
If you are judging this by the strength of the underdog you might be inclined to take Oklahoma State over Ohio State. But I think Evan Turner is just too good for that. I am say it will be Villanova that suffers the early knockout to Richmond.

I'm also going to knock out a 3 seed in the second round, predicting Marquette will beat New Mexico.

Beyond:
I do have a sleeper Final Four team but I am holding off on unveiling that until Thuesday morning.

NCAA Tournament Preview: Bubble Teams

The Monday morning after selection Sunday is for two things, picking Final Four teams and bitching about bubble teams.

I'll get to my Final Four picks later this week so let's examine the bubble teams.

First those that got in with RPI in parentheses:
Utah State (30) and UTEP (38) both lost conference title games but knowing how hard it is to build a strong RPI from a weaker conference, these teams deserved inclusions.

The last two majors to get in were likely Florida (56) and Minnesota (62). Both of these teams had some big wins, Florida beat Michigan State and Tennessee and Minnesota won 5 games against top 30 opponents (Butler, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Purdue). Minnesota also played its way in with a big performance in the conference tournament which may have been a factor for the committee, they wanted to see which teams would step up in must-win situations that could approximate the NCAA Tournament.

That's why Florida getting in over Mississippi State (55) puzzles me a little. Miss State had the same number of top 30 wins (Old Dominion, Vanderbilt) as Florida but they were of much lower quality. But they beat Florida when the chips were supposedly down.

Three more quick bubble teams who deservedly were left out:
Virginia Tech (59): good record (23-8) but a horrible non-conference strength of schedule. The lost to Temple and beat Seton Hall but they also beat 9 teams above 200 in RPI including North Carolina Central #347 out of 347.
Seton Hall (60): No matter what the committee says they just aren't going to take a 9th team from a power conference over a team that won the regular season in a reasonable conference.

That's why things were going so well for Seton Hall early in Championship Week until Saturday when Houston, New Mexico State and maybe even Washington stole bids.

Illinois (74): Just too low an RPI, in Wofford, Sam Houston State range, they probably couldn't have gotten in even with a win over Ohio State.

But the team I think has the biggest reason to be upset this morning in Rhode Island (40). They played in a decent conference (Atlantic-10 was 7th rated conference) but the problem is no big wins, and five losses against Temple, Xavier and Richmond.

This is another discussion we'll get to later but the lack of a really high quality bubble team that has a major argument with exclusion proves that 64 is perfectand 96 is too many.