Showing posts with label paul's predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label paul's predictions. Show all posts
Monday, November 07, 2016
Election Predictions
Popular Vote
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Donald Trump: 43%
Gary Johnson: 5%
Jill Stein: 3%
Electoral Votes
Hillary Clinton: 334
Donald Trump: 204
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Upsets and Favorites
Before March Madness gets going I thought I would share some thoughts about the bracket, unfortunately all my thoughts seem to be taken by everyone else too.
Kansas, UNC and Michigan State: Almost everyone is picking them for the Final Four and so am I.
Villanova and Virgina: Have recently been high seeds and always disappoint.
Oregon and Xavier: Good teams that are being overlooked because of their pedigree, or lack thereof, don't be surprised to see one in the Final Four.
Oklahoma: I really like this team but I am scared off by how much they rely on the 3-point shot. One bad game and you can lose to anyone.
Fourth Final Four team: If I choose Texas A&M I am going with the same four teams as Pres. Obama, which isn't bad politically, but it is bad strategically. So that leaves me with Duke, Baylor and Texas. I like Texas, but their best interior player, Cameron Ridley, is limited in how many minutes he can play. Believe it or not I'm going with Duke.
12 over 5 upsets: I do like Indiana and they suffered an upset on an unlucky shot in the Big Ten tournament. Baylor is playing Yale, and though Ivy teams do have a history of upsets and near-upsets, I don't think Yale has what it takes. That leaves South Dakota State over Maryland, and Arkansas-Little Rock over Purdue, so I am going to pick them both. UALR because they play a slow style that could breed an upset and SDSU because Maryland has a lot of talent but has terribly underachieved.
11 over 6 upsets: I like Texas and Notre Dame to advance, but I am picking against Seton Hall and Arizona. Seton Hall won a difficult conference and faces a Gonzaga team with a couple of good big men in Sabonis and Wiltjer. Arizona just got a tough draw vs. Wichita State. The Shockers got the 11 seed they deserved, maybe underseeded by a little, but they struggled with injuries so they're actually better than they appear. They play great defense (#1 in kenpom's AdjD) and have two great experienced player in Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker. And I actually have both those teams winning two games. Because...
14 over 3 upset: I am picking Fresno State to beat Utah. Utah is a 3-seed but ranked 28th by kenpom. But they were 13th in what the site classifies as luck. Their luck runs out.
13 over upset: Not picking any because they only one I kind of like is Iona vs Iowa State, but talented big men usually help stave off upsets.
10 or 7 over 2 upset: I am picking Iowa to knock off Villanova, setting up a matchup vs Wichita State in the Sweet 16 for the opportunity to play Kansas for a chance to go to the Final Four. You may remember the battle of Kansas from last year, when a big deal was made of the Jayhawks not playing the Shockers. Wichita State got them last year, the result could be different this time but I have Iowa disrupting it.
As for my pick to win it all. I am going with Tom Izzo and Denzel Valentine.
Monday, November 05, 2012
Election Prediction
Electoral College
Barack Obama: 294
Mitt Romney: 244
Popular Vote
Barack Obama: 51.5% (64.8 million)
Mitt Romney: 47%
Gary Johnson: 1.5%
Election will be called at 1:15 AM Wednesday morning.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Initial Bracket Breakdown
Let’s start with Syracuse. I think the 3 seed was about what we deserved but I thought we might lose it to one of the Kentucky teams which had good late season runs, but both Kentucky and Louisville got 4 seeds. I do however think we got a tough facing the best #1 and perhaps the second best #2. It’s completely debatable of course because all those teams are so close, but we know Ohio State was the overall #1. Then if the committee went with a serpentine formula they had UNC as the 4th #2 (8 overall) and Syracuse as the 9th best team. But I don’t think they actually adhere all that closely to that.
As for the matchups, I don’t think SU should have a big problem Indiana State. They are a guard-oriented team which could press us into some turnovers, but it’s not like they dominated a smaller conference, they were third place in the MVC, which is a good not great conference.
Then SU has to play the winner of Xavier-Marquette. I think it’ll be Xavier which could give SU problems. But either way I don’t see SU beating North Carolina unless the Heels’ inexperience catches up with them and they make a bunch of mistakes. North Carolina to me is the typical team with a lot of talented freshman, took a while to get their footing but now they’ve really hit their stride. They have won 13 games in a row against teams not named Duke.
Speaking of Duke, on closer inspection, they were deserving of the 4th number one seed over Notre Dame. But I think they got off a little easy in their draw. San Diego State is a vulnerable #2 seed and I’m sure the committee thinks UConn is the toughest 3 seed because of their late run but I believe they drastically overrate conference tournaments.
I think Pitt losing in the first round of the Big East will clear the way for them to finally break through and make the final 4. Pitt has made the tournament 9 straight years, including 5 years getting a top 3 seed (a 1, a 2 and 3 3s) but they never made the final 4, and only once to the Elite 8 (in 2009, when they suffered a heart-breaking loss to Villanova.
Belmont will beat Wisconsin. Upsets happen, that's the way it goes. If you picked every game in a vacuum you would pick all favorites. But you know upsets happen so you have to look where they are most likely to be. I was going to pick Belmont regardless of their opponent because this is the type of small conference team that normally pulls off a shocker. They are 30-4 with 25 of their wins by double digits. 3 of their 4 losses were to tournament teams, Tennessee twice and Vanderbilt. Plus Belmont is an active, pressing team that uses a lot of players and could give a plodding Wisconsin team fits.
Why does the selection committee ever schedule first round games between two teams from smaller conferences? This year it is Butler vs. Old Dominion. Why not switch one of those teams with Michigan or Tennessee and give the smaller guys a better chance to advance?
The committee also stacked the deck against the Big East. Facing the possibility of 11 teams in the Sweet 16, more likely 7 or 8, the committee set up two possible conference showdowns in Round 2, yes I still call it round 2. Marquette could face Syracuse and Cincinnati could face UConn.
No one is going to call the rounds by their new names. The four extra games are now officially round 1, and the old rounds 1 and 2 are now 2 and 3. On this blog and forevermore until the tournament expands to 96 or 128, I will call opening games, the play-in round. I urge you to do the same, except when ordering tickets.
And remember to join my espn.com tournament challenge group. I had to change it, the name is The Poop. The other name wasn't showing up in searches, so look for The Poop.
As for the matchups, I don’t think SU should have a big problem Indiana State. They are a guard-oriented team which could press us into some turnovers, but it’s not like they dominated a smaller conference, they were third place in the MVC, which is a good not great conference.
Then SU has to play the winner of Xavier-Marquette. I think it’ll be Xavier which could give SU problems. But either way I don’t see SU beating North Carolina unless the Heels’ inexperience catches up with them and they make a bunch of mistakes. North Carolina to me is the typical team with a lot of talented freshman, took a while to get their footing but now they’ve really hit their stride. They have won 13 games in a row against teams not named Duke.
Speaking of Duke, on closer inspection, they were deserving of the 4th number one seed over Notre Dame. But I think they got off a little easy in their draw. San Diego State is a vulnerable #2 seed and I’m sure the committee thinks UConn is the toughest 3 seed because of their late run but I believe they drastically overrate conference tournaments.
I think Pitt losing in the first round of the Big East will clear the way for them to finally break through and make the final 4. Pitt has made the tournament 9 straight years, including 5 years getting a top 3 seed (a 1, a 2 and 3 3s) but they never made the final 4, and only once to the Elite 8 (in 2009, when they suffered a heart-breaking loss to Villanova.
Belmont will beat Wisconsin. Upsets happen, that's the way it goes. If you picked every game in a vacuum you would pick all favorites. But you know upsets happen so you have to look where they are most likely to be. I was going to pick Belmont regardless of their opponent because this is the type of small conference team that normally pulls off a shocker. They are 30-4 with 25 of their wins by double digits. 3 of their 4 losses were to tournament teams, Tennessee twice and Vanderbilt. Plus Belmont is an active, pressing team that uses a lot of players and could give a plodding Wisconsin team fits.
Why does the selection committee ever schedule first round games between two teams from smaller conferences? This year it is Butler vs. Old Dominion. Why not switch one of those teams with Michigan or Tennessee and give the smaller guys a better chance to advance?
The committee also stacked the deck against the Big East. Facing the possibility of 11 teams in the Sweet 16, more likely 7 or 8, the committee set up two possible conference showdowns in Round 2, yes I still call it round 2. Marquette could face Syracuse and Cincinnati could face UConn.
No one is going to call the rounds by their new names. The four extra games are now officially round 1, and the old rounds 1 and 2 are now 2 and 3. On this blog and forevermore until the tournament expands to 96 or 128, I will call opening games, the play-in round. I urge you to do the same, except when ordering tickets.
And remember to join my espn.com tournament challenge group. I had to change it, the name is The Poop. The other name wasn't showing up in searches, so look for The Poop.
Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Predictions for 2011
1. Mrs. Poop and I will not have a single fight all year. So far, so good
2. Julian will learn to walk and talk
3. His first word will be "Chase"
4. He'll probably say something like "Chay" but Mrs. Bates will tell us it still counts
5. This is the year Chase finally starts to take interest in the Mets
6. The Mets will trade Jose Reyes
7. The Patriots, Phillies and Heat will win the Super Bowl, World Series and NBA Finals
8. The Super Bowl will be the last NFL game played in 2011
9. Unemployment will fall to 8.4% in December
10. The Dow will hit 13,000
11. When Sirius-XM shares hit $2 I will e-mail TON "when your stock is up, your cock is up"
12. Razor will experience great personal growth when she ceases working from home and moves to a real office, surrounded by real people instead of cats
13. Razor will no longer have time to scour her computer to send me pictures of GauntSkott from back when he was FatScat and tipping the scales at nearly 3 bills
14. Nails will scream "DIE!" at the TV while watching a sporting event
15. The Concierge will reply to a bbm within two days of it being sent
16. Billie and Alison will have a very hard time deciding which of them their new baby resembles most
17. I'll blame Coach Boeheim for Syracuse's eventual loss in the NCAA Tournament
18. JLeary will remain my favorite Poophead as TON and Billie get too busy with parenthood to read this blog
19. Cain Velazquez will beat Junior Dos Santos but lose the UFC Heavyweight belt to Shane Carwin
20. Jonny Bones Jones will be UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
21. Reissberg will spill food on his shirt
22. Juice will propose but he won't get down on one knee because he can't stay still that long
2. Julian will learn to walk and talk
3. His first word will be "Chase"
4. He'll probably say something like "Chay" but Mrs. Bates will tell us it still counts
5. This is the year Chase finally starts to take interest in the Mets
6. The Mets will trade Jose Reyes
7. The Patriots, Phillies and Heat will win the Super Bowl, World Series and NBA Finals
8. The Super Bowl will be the last NFL game played in 2011
9. Unemployment will fall to 8.4% in December
10. The Dow will hit 13,000
11. When Sirius-XM shares hit $2 I will e-mail TON "when your stock is up, your cock is up"
12. Razor will experience great personal growth when she ceases working from home and moves to a real office, surrounded by real people instead of cats
13. Razor will no longer have time to scour her computer to send me pictures of GauntSkott from back when he was FatScat and tipping the scales at nearly 3 bills
14. Nails will scream "DIE!" at the TV while watching a sporting event
15. The Concierge will reply to a bbm within two days of it being sent
16. Billie and Alison will have a very hard time deciding which of them their new baby resembles most
17. I'll blame Coach Boeheim for Syracuse's eventual loss in the NCAA Tournament
18. JLeary will remain my favorite Poophead as TON and Billie get too busy with parenthood to read this blog
19. Cain Velazquez will beat Junior Dos Santos but lose the UFC Heavyweight belt to Shane Carwin
20. Jonny Bones Jones will be UFC Light Heavyweight Champion
21. Reissberg will spill food on his shirt
22. Juice will propose but he won't get down on one knee because he can't stay still that long
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
2010 Baseball Playoff Predictions
NLDS
Phillies over Reds in 4
Giants over Braves in 5
ALDS
Yankees over Twins in 3
Rays over Rangers in 4
NLCS
Phillies over Giants in 5
ALCS
Yankees over Rays in 7
World Series
Phillies over Yankees in 6
World Series MVP
Roy Halladay
Please post your picks in the comments section
Phillies over Reds in 4
Giants over Braves in 5
ALDS
Yankees over Twins in 3
Rays over Rangers in 4
NLCS
Phillies over Giants in 5
ALCS
Yankees over Rays in 7
World Series
Phillies over Yankees in 6
World Series MVP
Roy Halladay
Please post your picks in the comments section
Monday, June 28, 2010
The Summer of Knicks Fans' Discontent
Have you ever been looking forward to something? A trip, an event or a present? And when it finally comes, it doesn’t quite materialize the way you hoped. I fear that scenario will play out for Knicks fans this summer. After years of preparing the team, and suffering through losing seasons, the Knicks were poised to cash in on a bumper crop of free agents. Unfortunately I think the Knicks are going to end up very disappointed.
The big prize if of course LeBron James. There aren’t enough celebrity endorsements, Ring Pops (what is the deal with Ring Pops lately?) or lap dances at Scores (though that is an awesome gambit) to get LeBron here. I think there’s at least a 90% chance he will stay in Cleveland. It just makes the most sense, they can pay him the most money, he’s tangentially from there and I think he would like to bring a title to that city. That leaves a small window for Chicago where teamed with Derrick Rose and perhaps another free agent (Chris Bosh?) the Bulls could assemble a Michael/Scottie-esque juggernaut.
Note: I don’t buy the stuff about him not wanting go to Chicago because of the unavoidable comparisons to Michael Jordan. You mean if he wins a few titles and is the best player in the game for some other team they won’t compare him to Michael Jordan? They compared Harold Miner to Jordan for heaven’s sake. He’d have to play for CSKA Moscow to avoid Jordan comparisons. And if he wins 5 titles in Chicago you think that somehow won’t be good enough because Jordan won 6? Asinine.
I’m also leaving a tiny window open for the Nets which would be a complete wild card but they do have some appeal (Jay-Z, Brooklyn) and some young talent (Harris, Lopez and now Favors).
I don’t see the Knicks getting the consolation prize either. I think Dwayne Wade will stay with the Heat, 95% sure of that. Once again small chance he goes to Chicago because he’s from there, but I expect him to stay and try to recruit someone else to come with him.
As for Chris Bosh, he could come to the Knicks, it’s possible if he wants to try to be a #1 guy and lead a team. But I think it’s more likely he’s willing to play second fiddle to LeBron, Wade or Rose (if LeBron stays).
I think the Knicks will end up with Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer. If that’s the case I’d rather re-sign David Lee and take our chances once again next year once Eddy Curry’s money comes off the books.
If you think I’m wrong and you’re so smart won’t you join me in the ESPN.com Free Agency Predictor game. As always our group is called The Poop. You must sign up by Wednesday before midnight.
The big prize if of course LeBron James. There aren’t enough celebrity endorsements, Ring Pops (what is the deal with Ring Pops lately?) or lap dances at Scores (though that is an awesome gambit) to get LeBron here. I think there’s at least a 90% chance he will stay in Cleveland. It just makes the most sense, they can pay him the most money, he’s tangentially from there and I think he would like to bring a title to that city. That leaves a small window for Chicago where teamed with Derrick Rose and perhaps another free agent (Chris Bosh?) the Bulls could assemble a Michael/Scottie-esque juggernaut.
Note: I don’t buy the stuff about him not wanting go to Chicago because of the unavoidable comparisons to Michael Jordan. You mean if he wins a few titles and is the best player in the game for some other team they won’t compare him to Michael Jordan? They compared Harold Miner to Jordan for heaven’s sake. He’d have to play for CSKA Moscow to avoid Jordan comparisons. And if he wins 5 titles in Chicago you think that somehow won’t be good enough because Jordan won 6? Asinine.
I’m also leaving a tiny window open for the Nets which would be a complete wild card but they do have some appeal (Jay-Z, Brooklyn) and some young talent (Harris, Lopez and now Favors).
I don’t see the Knicks getting the consolation prize either. I think Dwayne Wade will stay with the Heat, 95% sure of that. Once again small chance he goes to Chicago because he’s from there, but I expect him to stay and try to recruit someone else to come with him.
As for Chris Bosh, he could come to the Knicks, it’s possible if he wants to try to be a #1 guy and lead a team. But I think it’s more likely he’s willing to play second fiddle to LeBron, Wade or Rose (if LeBron stays).
I think the Knicks will end up with Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer. If that’s the case I’d rather re-sign David Lee and take our chances once again next year once Eddy Curry’s money comes off the books.
If you think I’m wrong and you’re so smart won’t you join me in the ESPN.com Free Agency Predictor game. As always our group is called The Poop. You must sign up by Wednesday before midnight.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
NCAA Tournament Preview: The Top Seeds
East: This region is Kentucky's to lose. West Virginia is a hot team right now but I just don't see them being able to match Kentucky. And it's not because of John Wall. DeMarcus Cousins will have too much size for a generally smallish WVU team. The 3 seed in this region, New Mexico is a good team but often good teams from smaller conferences that get seeded this high (other than Memphis recently) don't have the talent to match the top teams. The four seed in this region, Wisconsin, could pose the biggest threat to Kentucky by slowing the game down and frustrating Wall and Kentucky's other young stars.
Midwest: I have not seen anyone pick anyone other than Kansas to get through this region despite the fact that people complained Kansas has gotten an unfair draw. I really like Ohio State and think Evan Turner is the best player in the country. With Georgetown and Maryland also in this region I just don't think anyone can stop this epic 1 vs 2 matchup in the Regional Final.
West: This is a tough region for Syracuse but I think most people expect them to win it. Kansas State is also a very good team with good guard play, the kind of team people like in the tournament. There isn't a lot of confidence in Pitt. Even when they had really good teams they always underachieved in the tournament because they would win games with effort and brute force but that doesn't work against better teams. That should happen when they run into Kansas State.
South: This one is wide open. Only one year did all four number one seeds make the Final Four. Almost everyone believes Duke is the most vulnerable to miss it this year. That comes even as people say Duke has the easiest road. I actually think this region is wide open for Baylor. Baylor could lose to bigger stronger teams but they can run past anyone. A team like Villanova is perfectly suited for Baylor's game, and Baylor is playing much better than Nova right now. That leaves Baylor against Duke in a regional final, I think. This year Duke has more size than they normally do but they are still a bunch of white pussies who lose every year when someone hits them in the mouth.
Final Four picks: Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas State and Baylor
Note: contrary to popular belief the Big 12 is the best conference this year, not the Big East.
National Champion: This is one of the toughest decisions picking a winner since 2005 when Illinois and North Carolina were in it. The quandary is the same, the more talented team against the more proven winner. Kentucky has the most talent, but three of their top players are freshmen. I don't necessarily think experience is as important as those TV talking heads do, especially because Kentucky has always managed to find a way to win these close games this year. But I just have a feeling about Kansas and I think the Cole Aldrich-DeMarcus Cousins matchup could decide this year's tournament so I am picking Kansas to win for the 2nd time in three years.
Midwest: I have not seen anyone pick anyone other than Kansas to get through this region despite the fact that people complained Kansas has gotten an unfair draw. I really like Ohio State and think Evan Turner is the best player in the country. With Georgetown and Maryland also in this region I just don't think anyone can stop this epic 1 vs 2 matchup in the Regional Final.
West: This is a tough region for Syracuse but I think most people expect them to win it. Kansas State is also a very good team with good guard play, the kind of team people like in the tournament. There isn't a lot of confidence in Pitt. Even when they had really good teams they always underachieved in the tournament because they would win games with effort and brute force but that doesn't work against better teams. That should happen when they run into Kansas State.
South: This one is wide open. Only one year did all four number one seeds make the Final Four. Almost everyone believes Duke is the most vulnerable to miss it this year. That comes even as people say Duke has the easiest road. I actually think this region is wide open for Baylor. Baylor could lose to bigger stronger teams but they can run past anyone. A team like Villanova is perfectly suited for Baylor's game, and Baylor is playing much better than Nova right now. That leaves Baylor against Duke in a regional final, I think. This year Duke has more size than they normally do but they are still a bunch of white pussies who lose every year when someone hits them in the mouth.
Final Four picks: Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas State and Baylor
Note: contrary to popular belief the Big 12 is the best conference this year, not the Big East.
National Champion: This is one of the toughest decisions picking a winner since 2005 when Illinois and North Carolina were in it. The quandary is the same, the more talented team against the more proven winner. Kentucky has the most talent, but three of their top players are freshmen. I don't necessarily think experience is as important as those TV talking heads do, especially because Kentucky has always managed to find a way to win these close games this year. But I just have a feeling about Kansas and I think the Cole Aldrich-DeMarcus Cousins matchup could decide this year's tournament so I am picking Kansas to win for the 2nd time in three years.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
NCAA Tournament Preview: Syracuse
The best Syracuse team in 20 years enters the NCAA Tournament with high hopes as well as serious questions.
Here are the problems with SU:
1) Injuries: The quad injury to Arinze Onuaku and the hand injury of Wes Johnson cast serious doubt on the team's ability to play to their potential during this tournament. But Johnson's injury seems to be getting better and Onuaku's doesn't seem as bad as we first thought. And by the time the real competition picks up SU will have played only three games in 3 weeks.
2) The bench: You could either say SU has a great bench or a horrible one. The first two guys off the bench are better than some of the starters on most teams, including SU. But after that SU has nothing, no one who has played any meaningful minutes all season. If one player is hurt, foul trouble is likely, and no one else will be around to provide help.
3) The 2-3 zone: Syracuse's biggest weapon is also often its downfall. It often confuses teams that aren't used to it, especially not played with the aggressiveness of this year's team, but any good coach should be able to prepare his team for something he is guaranteed to see. Teams that get hot from outside or crash the offensive boards routinely tear up the zone.
Syracuse is definitely good enough to make it to the Final Four and challenge Kansas or Kentucky for the national title, or even win it all, but I actually have them going out to Kansas State in the Elite 8.
Here are the problems with SU:
1) Injuries: The quad injury to Arinze Onuaku and the hand injury of Wes Johnson cast serious doubt on the team's ability to play to their potential during this tournament. But Johnson's injury seems to be getting better and Onuaku's doesn't seem as bad as we first thought. And by the time the real competition picks up SU will have played only three games in 3 weeks.
2) The bench: You could either say SU has a great bench or a horrible one. The first two guys off the bench are better than some of the starters on most teams, including SU. But after that SU has nothing, no one who has played any meaningful minutes all season. If one player is hurt, foul trouble is likely, and no one else will be around to provide help.
3) The 2-3 zone: Syracuse's biggest weapon is also often its downfall. It often confuses teams that aren't used to it, especially not played with the aggressiveness of this year's team, but any good coach should be able to prepare his team for something he is guaranteed to see. Teams that get hot from outside or crash the offensive boards routinely tear up the zone.
Syracuse is definitely good enough to make it to the Final Four and challenge Kansas or Kentucky for the national title, or even win it all, but I actually have them going out to Kansas State in the Elite 8.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
NCAA Tournament Preview: The Sleepers
For many people the most fun part of the NCAA Tournament is filling out the bracket and rooting for the alma mater of your sister's husband, cute girl at work or in the case of at least one Poophead, your favorite blogger.
For me my favorite part is watching the games.
But second is picking those sleepers that screw up everyone else's bracket but make yours. And I'm not just talking first round. There is almost always a 2-seed losing in the second round. And except for 2008 we often get a Final Four team most people didn't expect.
First round:
Almost every year a 13 seed beats a 4 and this year the trendy pick is Siena. They won first round games two straight years and now they draw a depleted Purdue team playing without Robbie Hummel. But people forget all season Purdue was great, not because of one player but because of a balanced lineup. Also Siena is different this year. In four games against top 50 teams they lost all four. So don't pick Siena, no matter what Jems tells you. If a 4 does go down it'll be Vanderbilt.
Every year (except maybe once) a 12 seed beat a 5. And no matter what Master Bates and Papa Poop have been telling me for 20 years, it will happen again this year and I've got at least a 25% chance of getting it right.
This year's trendy pick is Cornell. And though I hate going along with this crowd the trend says trendy upset picks do pretty well. But styles make fights and this isn't a good matchup for Cornell. They could upset a major conference team with a lot of athleticism if they could slow down that team, frustrate them and get open shots against an undisciplined defense. Temple is a little too tough and aggressive on D to fall for that.
So give me UTEP over Butler though I could see Utah State over Texas A&M. Both schools were great all year and stumbled in their conference tournaments. I'm a little disappointed all the 12s are small conference teams, I usually like a tested BCS school.
And I guess I need an 11 over a 6 as well. The Big East has two 6s (Notre Dame and Marquette) and I like both those teams and I think Minnesota shot its load in the Big 10 tournament. So that leaves me with San Diego State over Tennessee. I think Tennessee is ripe for an upset because they had huge highs (wins over Kansas and Kentucky) but also losses to sub-100 teams (USC & Georgia) and they got blown out by Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. They may finally be petering out after taking a huge talent hit when Tyler Smith got kicked off the team.
Second round:
If you are judging this by the strength of the underdog you might be inclined to take Oklahoma State over Ohio State. But I think Evan Turner is just too good for that. I am say it will be Villanova that suffers the early knockout to Richmond.
I'm also going to knock out a 3 seed in the second round, predicting Marquette will beat New Mexico.
Beyond:
I do have a sleeper Final Four team but I am holding off on unveiling that until Thuesday morning.
For me my favorite part is watching the games.
But second is picking those sleepers that screw up everyone else's bracket but make yours. And I'm not just talking first round. There is almost always a 2-seed losing in the second round. And except for 2008 we often get a Final Four team most people didn't expect.
First round:
Almost every year a 13 seed beats a 4 and this year the trendy pick is Siena. They won first round games two straight years and now they draw a depleted Purdue team playing without Robbie Hummel. But people forget all season Purdue was great, not because of one player but because of a balanced lineup. Also Siena is different this year. In four games against top 50 teams they lost all four. So don't pick Siena, no matter what Jems tells you. If a 4 does go down it'll be Vanderbilt.
Every year (except maybe once) a 12 seed beat a 5. And no matter what Master Bates and Papa Poop have been telling me for 20 years, it will happen again this year and I've got at least a 25% chance of getting it right.
This year's trendy pick is Cornell. And though I hate going along with this crowd the trend says trendy upset picks do pretty well. But styles make fights and this isn't a good matchup for Cornell. They could upset a major conference team with a lot of athleticism if they could slow down that team, frustrate them and get open shots against an undisciplined defense. Temple is a little too tough and aggressive on D to fall for that.
So give me UTEP over Butler though I could see Utah State over Texas A&M. Both schools were great all year and stumbled in their conference tournaments. I'm a little disappointed all the 12s are small conference teams, I usually like a tested BCS school.
And I guess I need an 11 over a 6 as well. The Big East has two 6s (Notre Dame and Marquette) and I like both those teams and I think Minnesota shot its load in the Big 10 tournament. So that leaves me with San Diego State over Tennessee. I think Tennessee is ripe for an upset because they had huge highs (wins over Kansas and Kentucky) but also losses to sub-100 teams (USC & Georgia) and they got blown out by Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. They may finally be petering out after taking a huge talent hit when Tyler Smith got kicked off the team.
Second round:
If you are judging this by the strength of the underdog you might be inclined to take Oklahoma State over Ohio State. But I think Evan Turner is just too good for that. I am say it will be Villanova that suffers the early knockout to Richmond.
I'm also going to knock out a 3 seed in the second round, predicting Marquette will beat New Mexico.
Beyond:
I do have a sleeper Final Four team but I am holding off on unveiling that until Thuesday morning.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Killer Stretch
Syracuse is off to an incredible 16-1 start and is one full-court heave (followed by a good overtime) from being undefeated and ranked #2 in the country.
But all that could change as conference play heats up and SU faces a brutal 10-game stretch.
While I don't expect them to emerge from this gauntlet any better than 6-4, I do love this team.
I think they are perfectly composed with a great point guard, a solid big man, a deadeye outside shooter and a tough guy who makes the outside shots and drives to the hole when the team needs it most.
Here's my game-by-game predictions for the next ten games with dates, times and TV station (for TON who otherwise would not watch and would e-mail me in March to ask how SU is doing this year and if Allen Griffin is still on the team):
January 14 at No. 12 Georgetown 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2
Loss - It's going to be very hard to go on the road and win against the other top teams in this conference.
January 17 No. 13 Notre Dame 12:00 PM ET on ESPN
Loss - Even at home the 1-2 punch of Harangody and McAlarney may be too much for Syracuse to handle, especially because they are perfectly suited to destroy SU's zone, Harangody by getting in the middle of it, and McAlarney by shooting over it.
January 19 at No. 1 Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
Loss - Pittsburgh will very likely still be undefeated and number one, could be very difficult to knock them off.
January 25 No. 20 Louisville 12:00 PM ET on SNY
Win - I'm not a big fan of this Louisville team and I think they already pulled off their big upset with that win over Notre Dame.
January 28 at Providence 7:00 PM ET not sure what channel
Win - The one soft spot in this stretch of games, even though right now they are 3-1 in the conference.
February 4 West Virginia 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
Win - This game may also be a breather. I don't think this team has the size to keep up with SU inside.
February 7 vs. No. 22 Villanova* 12:00 PM ET on ESPN
Win - I'm also not sold on Villanova. They still have Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds but they also lack size inside. Due to the stupidest rule ever this game is considered a neutral site game, not a road game even though it's in Philadelphia.
February 11 at No. 4 Connecticut 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
Loss - It will be interesting to see how Arinze Onuaku and Hasheem Thabeet square off.
February 14 No. 12 Georgetown 12:00 PM ET on ESPN
Win - I don't see Georgetown coming into the Dome and winning. They have a good team, but not that good.
February 22 No. 22 Villanova 1:00 PM ET on CBS
Win - If they can beat Villanova in a "neutral site" game, they can beat them in the Dome.
Think I'm wrong? Post your own game by game predictions in the comments sections.
But all that could change as conference play heats up and SU faces a brutal 10-game stretch.
While I don't expect them to emerge from this gauntlet any better than 6-4, I do love this team.
I think they are perfectly composed with a great point guard, a solid big man, a deadeye outside shooter and a tough guy who makes the outside shots and drives to the hole when the team needs it most.
Here's my game-by-game predictions for the next ten games with dates, times and TV station (for TON who otherwise would not watch and would e-mail me in March to ask how SU is doing this year and if Allen Griffin is still on the team):
January 14 at No. 12 Georgetown 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2
Loss - It's going to be very hard to go on the road and win against the other top teams in this conference.
January 17 No. 13 Notre Dame 12:00 PM ET on ESPN
Loss - Even at home the 1-2 punch of Harangody and McAlarney may be too much for Syracuse to handle, especially because they are perfectly suited to destroy SU's zone, Harangody by getting in the middle of it, and McAlarney by shooting over it.
January 19 at No. 1 Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
Loss - Pittsburgh will very likely still be undefeated and number one, could be very difficult to knock them off.
January 25 No. 20 Louisville 12:00 PM ET on SNY
Win - I'm not a big fan of this Louisville team and I think they already pulled off their big upset with that win over Notre Dame.
January 28 at Providence 7:00 PM ET not sure what channel
Win - The one soft spot in this stretch of games, even though right now they are 3-1 in the conference.
February 4 West Virginia 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
Win - This game may also be a breather. I don't think this team has the size to keep up with SU inside.
February 7 vs. No. 22 Villanova* 12:00 PM ET on ESPN
Win - I'm also not sold on Villanova. They still have Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds but they also lack size inside. Due to the stupidest rule ever this game is considered a neutral site game, not a road game even though it's in Philadelphia.
February 11 at No. 4 Connecticut 7:00 PM ET on ESPN
Loss - It will be interesting to see how Arinze Onuaku and Hasheem Thabeet square off.
February 14 No. 12 Georgetown 12:00 PM ET on ESPN
Win - I don't see Georgetown coming into the Dome and winning. They have a good team, but not that good.
February 22 No. 22 Villanova 1:00 PM ET on CBS
Win - If they can beat Villanova in a "neutral site" game, they can beat them in the Dome.
Think I'm wrong? Post your own game by game predictions in the comments sections.
Monday, November 24, 2008
I Sure Nailed That One
If anyone had a better Election Night than Barack Obama, it was probably me. I almost couldn't have been anymore correct in my predictions.
Here's what I said:
Electoral College:
Barack Obama 360
John McCain 178
Popular Vote:
Barack Obama 53% (67.3 million votes)
John McCain 46%
Nader/Barr 1%
Here's what actually happened:
Electoral College
Barack Obama 365
John McCain 173
Popular Vote:
Barack Obama 53% (66.9 million votes)
John McCain 46%
Nader/Barr 1%
Do you realize how dead on that is? I mean nailing the total number of votes within a few hundred thousand (and votes are still being counted, I will get even closer when every vote is tabulated), that's just unheard of. Especially because everyone was predicting a huge turnout (which didn't really materialize, total votes were up by about 3 million or about 2.5%), I correctly predicted voter apathy as well.
Just another example of my genius.
Here's what I said:
Electoral College:
Barack Obama 360
John McCain 178
Popular Vote:
Barack Obama 53% (67.3 million votes)
John McCain 46%
Nader/Barr 1%
Here's what actually happened:
Electoral College
Barack Obama 365
John McCain 173
Popular Vote:
Barack Obama 53% (66.9 million votes)
John McCain 46%
Nader/Barr 1%
Do you realize how dead on that is? I mean nailing the total number of votes within a few hundred thousand (and votes are still being counted, I will get even closer when every vote is tabulated), that's just unheard of. Especially because everyone was predicting a huge turnout (which didn't really materialize, total votes were up by about 3 million or about 2.5%), I correctly predicted voter apathy as well.
Just another example of my genius.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Election Predictions
Electoral College:
Barack Obama 360
John McCain 178
Popular Vote:
Barack Obama 53% (67.3 million votes)
John McCain 46%
Nader/Barr 1%
Post your predictions in the comments section.
Barack Obama 360
John McCain 178
Popular Vote:
Barack Obama 53% (67.3 million votes)
John McCain 46%
Nader/Barr 1%
Post your predictions in the comments section.
Sunday, September 07, 2008
2008 NFL Predictions
1. The Patriots will win the Super Bowl.
2. The Giants will miss the playoffs.
3. Adrian Peterson will be good, but a major fantasy disappointment with about 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns.
4. Larry Johnson will have a bounceback season and rack up over 1,500 yards in Herman Edwards's vanilla offense.
5. The Jets will finish 6-10, 8-8 at best.
6. Brett Favre will throw 20 interceptions.
7. Tom Brady will drop off a little, but still throw 35 touchdown passes.
8. The Rams will win 5 more games than they did last season.
9. The Packers will lose 5 more games than they did last season.
10. Derek Anderson [corrected] will throw 20 interceptions.
11. Matt Ryan will be replaced as the Falcons starter by midseason.
12. Rudi Johnson will have a better season than any running back on the Bengals.
13. But he won't get his underclothes back from Tatum Bell.
14. We'll hear several stories about how the Texans made the right decision by drafting Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. And Williams is will be better than Vince Young and Matt Leinart too.
15. Stephen Jackson will be the #1 fantasy running back, or at least in the top 3.
16. The Ravens will be no better than 4-12.
17. The elimination of the 5-yard facemask penalty will result in several controversial soft personal foul calls.
18. Using Devin Hester at wide receiver will result in some highlight reel long catches, but he won't have more than 25 catches overall.
19. Uptight football analyst guys will refuse to call the former Chad Johnson, Chad Ocho Cinco.
20. If the NFL actually allows it, jerseys with the name Ocho Cinco on the back will outsell all other players this season.
2. The Giants will miss the playoffs.
3. Adrian Peterson will be good, but a major fantasy disappointment with about 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns.
4. Larry Johnson will have a bounceback season and rack up over 1,500 yards in Herman Edwards's vanilla offense.
5. The Jets will finish 6-10, 8-8 at best.
6. Brett Favre will throw 20 interceptions.
7. Tom Brady will drop off a little, but still throw 35 touchdown passes.
8. The Rams will win 5 more games than they did last season.
9. The Packers will lose 5 more games than they did last season.
10. Derek Anderson [corrected] will throw 20 interceptions.
11. Matt Ryan will be replaced as the Falcons starter by midseason.
12. Rudi Johnson will have a better season than any running back on the Bengals.
13. But he won't get his underclothes back from Tatum Bell.
14. We'll hear several stories about how the Texans made the right decision by drafting Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. And Williams is will be better than Vince Young and Matt Leinart too.
15. Stephen Jackson will be the #1 fantasy running back, or at least in the top 3.
16. The Ravens will be no better than 4-12.
17. The elimination of the 5-yard facemask penalty will result in several controversial soft personal foul calls.
18. Using Devin Hester at wide receiver will result in some highlight reel long catches, but he won't have more than 25 catches overall.
19. Uptight football analyst guys will refuse to call the former Chad Johnson, Chad Ocho Cinco.
20. If the NFL actually allows it, jerseys with the name Ocho Cinco on the back will outsell all other players this season.
Friday, April 25, 2008
The Poop's Mock Draft
My almost completely uninformed guesses (which will probably be no less accurate than the experts) for the first 10 picks in the NFL Draft.
1. Jake Long - Dolphins (that's a gimme)
2. Glenn Dorsey - Rams
3. Chris Long - Falcons
4. Darren McFadden - Raiders (fits the Raiders image)
5. Vernon Golston - Chiefs (need to replace Jared Allen
6. Ryan Clady - Jets (This pick will get booed but I don't think the Jets will take a QB)
7. Leodis McKelvin - Patriots
8. Matt Ryan - Ravens
9. Sedrick Ellis - Bengals
10. Chris Williams - Saints
1. Jake Long - Dolphins (that's a gimme)
2. Glenn Dorsey - Rams
3. Chris Long - Falcons
4. Darren McFadden - Raiders (fits the Raiders image)
5. Vernon Golston - Chiefs (need to replace Jared Allen
6. Ryan Clady - Jets (This pick will get booed but I don't think the Jets will take a QB)
7. Leodis McKelvin - Patriots
8. Matt Ryan - Ravens
9. Sedrick Ellis - Bengals
10. Chris Williams - Saints
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Sweet Sixteen Predictions
West Virginia over Xavier:
Xavier plays incredible defense but I think West Virginia has enough good shooters and enough good ball handlers and enough experienced players to not get rattled when Xavier turns up the heat, as Georgia and Purde did.
North Carolina over Washington State:
North Carolina could score half as many points as they did against Arkansas and still win this game. Tony Bennett has only one chance in this game, slow it down to a painful pace and hope the Tar Heels try too hard to get up and down, causing turnovers.
UCLA over Western Kentucky:
I think this might be another close game but UCLA has proven they have the horses (and perhaps the referees) to keep winning close games.
Louisville over Tennessee:
I'm actually changing my mind on this one because I think Chris Lofton has disappeared. They need him to have a huge game and hit his outside shots, but he's shooting only 4 of 16 so far in the tournament.
Wisconsin over Davidson:
I think Bo Ryan has schemed to shut down Stephen Curry. And I think Wisconsin has too much size up front.
Stanford over Texas:
I'm changing my mind on this one too. After I saw how Brook Lopez dominated Marquette down the stretch, and how totally clutch he was, I have to change my mind about Stanford. I still think they lack the athletic wing players to run with teams like Memphis and North Carolina, but when you have two good big guys like this who are both capable of scoring on anyone, you can be very dangerous.
Kansas over Villanova:
I expect Kansas to overwhelm them in the biggest blowout of this round.
Memphis over Michigan State:
This is the game that could be the upset special. I think Tom Izzo is going to turn this one into an ugly affair and just try to stay close. If Memphis doesn't shoot free throws better I could see Izzo employing a hack-a-Dorsey plan late in the game. He is not above such indelicate tactics. But I still think Memphis will win because they have better players.
Xavier plays incredible defense but I think West Virginia has enough good shooters and enough good ball handlers and enough experienced players to not get rattled when Xavier turns up the heat, as Georgia and Purde did.
North Carolina over Washington State:
North Carolina could score half as many points as they did against Arkansas and still win this game. Tony Bennett has only one chance in this game, slow it down to a painful pace and hope the Tar Heels try too hard to get up and down, causing turnovers.
UCLA over Western Kentucky:
I think this might be another close game but UCLA has proven they have the horses (and perhaps the referees) to keep winning close games.
Louisville over Tennessee:
I'm actually changing my mind on this one because I think Chris Lofton has disappeared. They need him to have a huge game and hit his outside shots, but he's shooting only 4 of 16 so far in the tournament.
Wisconsin over Davidson:
I think Bo Ryan has schemed to shut down Stephen Curry. And I think Wisconsin has too much size up front.
Stanford over Texas:
I'm changing my mind on this one too. After I saw how Brook Lopez dominated Marquette down the stretch, and how totally clutch he was, I have to change my mind about Stanford. I still think they lack the athletic wing players to run with teams like Memphis and North Carolina, but when you have two good big guys like this who are both capable of scoring on anyone, you can be very dangerous.
Kansas over Villanova:
I expect Kansas to overwhelm them in the biggest blowout of this round.
Memphis over Michigan State:
This is the game that could be the upset special. I think Tom Izzo is going to turn this one into an ugly affair and just try to stay close. If Memphis doesn't shoot free throws better I could see Izzo employing a hack-a-Dorsey plan late in the game. He is not above such indelicate tactics. But I still think Memphis will win because they have better players.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
And the Winner Is...
My pick to win the NCAA Tournament this year is...UCLA!
I have seen them play several times this season and I think they have the most good players, even more than talent rich North Carolina and Memphis.
UCLA has been to the Final Four two years in a row but this season with the addition of Kevin Love their offense has improved to championship caliber.
I also give them the nod over North Carolina because they still play airtight aggressive defense. Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook are dogged defenders who frustrate even the best opponents.
And while Kevin Love is a little too slow to be a great defender, UCLA can sick Lorenzo Mata-Real on Tyler Hansbrough in the championship game to show him which player in the nation really gets the most out of their talent through effort and determination.
And I know people will say that they got lucky to beat Stanford and Cal, but I view luck as a key ingredient to surviving a crapshoot like the NCAA Tournament.
There are only two people who can derail UCLA's title run:
1) Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. They can get by without him through the first weekend, and maybe even the second weekend if the upsets I'm expecting do happen, but they'll need him at his best in San Antonio.
2) Darren Collison. He's great on defense, and if the inevitable UNC matchup does happen, I think he can keep up with Ty Lawson. He is also great leading UCLA's break but in the halfcourt he tends to be a ballstopper. He dribbles as if he's trying to remove the varnish from the floor.
If those two guys are at the top of their games UCLA will reclaim its place atop the college basketball world.
I have seen them play several times this season and I think they have the most good players, even more than talent rich North Carolina and Memphis.
UCLA has been to the Final Four two years in a row but this season with the addition of Kevin Love their offense has improved to championship caliber.
I also give them the nod over North Carolina because they still play airtight aggressive defense. Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook are dogged defenders who frustrate even the best opponents.
And while Kevin Love is a little too slow to be a great defender, UCLA can sick Lorenzo Mata-Real on Tyler Hansbrough in the championship game to show him which player in the nation really gets the most out of their talent through effort and determination.
And I know people will say that they got lucky to beat Stanford and Cal, but I view luck as a key ingredient to surviving a crapshoot like the NCAA Tournament.
There are only two people who can derail UCLA's title run:
1) Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. They can get by without him through the first weekend, and maybe even the second weekend if the upsets I'm expecting do happen, but they'll need him at his best in San Antonio.
2) Darren Collison. He's great on defense, and if the inevitable UNC matchup does happen, I think he can keep up with Ty Lawson. He is also great leading UCLA's break but in the halfcourt he tends to be a ballstopper. He dribbles as if he's trying to remove the varnish from the floor.
If those two guys are at the top of their games UCLA will reclaim its place atop the college basketball world.
Pre-Tournament Thoughts
Last year there were only 3 upsets in the NCAA Tournament, only 3 games when a team beat an opponnent with a seed more than one spot better. Those 3 games were #11 VCU over #6 Duke, #6 Vanderbilt over #3 Washington State and #7 UNLV over #2 Wisconsin.
CORRECTION: I forgot #11 Winthrop over #6 Notre Dame.
This year I think you can expect more of the same as the very best teams are strong, while the others aren't so great. I do think you will see a few more upsets in the early rounds, but the later rounds should go according to form.
For that reason I am picking North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA to make the Final Four. 3 #1 seeds for only the second time ever, and although I swore them off, I'm picking Georgetown as my fourth team because Wisconsin sucks and I don't believe in Kansas.
I like Memphis because they have incredible talent and although they could struggle with Texas, I don't place any import on the fact that the game is being played in Houston. And write this down, if Pitt survives Oral Roberts and Michigan State (or Temple), they have no chance against Memphis. Memphis is so superior athletically that they could miss every free throw they attempt and still run Pitt out of the gym by 20 points. Memphis's poor free throw shooting is drastically overrated. While it is important late in games, usually the better free throw shooters are shooting in those situations, Joey Dorsey won't be on the line shooting two, down by 1 with 30 seconds to go. Those shots will go to Derrick Rose and CDR (watch the announcers try to call him Chris Douglas-Roberts every time, then give up and just go with CDR by the second half) in the crucial situations. Also, Memphis just happened to have a particularly poor game from the line when they played Tennessee, the only time most people have seen them play all year. But the difference over the course of one game between Memphis and the average team from the line will be about 2 points, 13 of 20 compared to 15 of 20. Not likely enough to be the difference between winning and losing, living and dying.
I've got Indiana winning their first round game against Arkansas. They have one of the best duos in the nation in Gordon and White, let's see if they've just phoned it in.
The 5-12 upset will return this year. My choice is Villanova over Clemson because I think Villanova has the ball-handling and the outside shooting to make Clemson pay for pressing them. I think Notre Dame and Drake are too strong to get knocked off, so I had a 50/50 shot between Clemson and Michigan State but Coach Izzo always does well in the tournament.
I'm also going with 2 11s over 6s. I've got St. Joseph's over Oklahoma and Kentucky over Marquette. I've never been impressed with Marquette and I think Kentucky is a completely different team than they were earlier this season. I picked against Oklahoma because they were the most glaring "overseed" in the field. Those teams usually lose in the first round.
So that puts me down to two 6 seeds remaining, one of which will go to the Sweet 16. Obviously I'm picking USC and my boy O.J. Mayo. A second round matchup against Wisconsin, the weakest 3 seed (in terms of talent, not tournament resume which I discussed in my bracket breakdown, there is a difference) and the one with the style of play easiest to exploit, easy-pickings for a USC team with superior talent.
Every year you also get one 2 seed that doesn't make the Sweet 16. If that happens this year it would have to be Duke that gets knocked off. Tennessee and Texas are much better teams, and Georgetown plays a steady enough game that they should avoid an upset, plus they have Hibbert and two undersized opponents looming in the second round. I also don't like Duke's style of play because on a cold shooting night they have nothing to fall back on. I have had incredible success over the years correctly predicting the 2 seed that would fall victim to the 2nd round upset, but I always seem to have them losing to the wrong team, most famously predicting that Penny Hardaway at Memphis State - as it was called at the time - would knock of Seton Hall, but Western Kentucky actually did it.. But I am going with Arizona and their athleticism over West Virginia and Duke. I think Arizona's tough schedule has gotten them ready for the rigors of March. No, I don't really believe that but I wanted to say it because if it happens every pundit in America will say those exact words. Even the political pundits who don't cover college basketball will echo that meaningless platitude.
Kudos to those of you who recognized meaningless platitude as a redundancy, like the kind favored by the windbag pundits I'm making fun of here.
Even with those upset picks I have a rather conservative bracket, the top 16 seeds all winning in the first round. If I had to pick one of those teams to get shocked, I'd say Winthrop over Washington State. I like the Pac-10 but was never impressed with WSU this season and I actually did seem them play more than any other team out there except for UCLA. WSU is steady but not spectacular. I'm not jumping on the Siena bandwagon (sorry Jems) because I like Vanderbilt's consistency.
Stanford will win two games, but that's it. The Lopez brothers are good and present huge matchup problems for most teams but they lack other good players to provide scoring. Texas should handle them. One reason I don't see Stanford getting knocked off early, a lot of times a key to an upset of a team with a good big man, is he gets in foul trouble and the team can't score or defend without him. But if one Lopez gets in foul trouble, they have another one just like him, though admittedly Robin doesn't have the offensive game of Brook, but he's coming around.
Drake will beat UConn. I've said a couple times already that outside shooting teams are vulnerable to a cold shooting night but Drake has so many good shooters that I can't imagine them all going cold at the same time. And with Adam Emmenecker running the point (he won MVC Player of the Year scoring 8.5 points per game) he'll find the hot shooter, probably Klayton Korver. Drake's style of play also negates one of UConn's greatest strengths, their shot blocking. I don't think you'll see Hasheem Thabeet ("turn Thabeet around, got to hear percussion" - Tony Kornheiser) on the perimeter trying to block 3-pointers.
Gus Johnson is going to be in Denver calling Michigan State-Temple, Pittsburgh-Oral Roberts, Notre Dame-George Mason and Washinton State-Winthrop. He's got no #1 or even #2 seeds likely to cause blowouts. We should get a couple exciting moments from him this weekend.
CORRECTION: I forgot #11 Winthrop over #6 Notre Dame.
This year I think you can expect more of the same as the very best teams are strong, while the others aren't so great. I do think you will see a few more upsets in the early rounds, but the later rounds should go according to form.
For that reason I am picking North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA to make the Final Four. 3 #1 seeds for only the second time ever, and although I swore them off, I'm picking Georgetown as my fourth team because Wisconsin sucks and I don't believe in Kansas.
I like Memphis because they have incredible talent and although they could struggle with Texas, I don't place any import on the fact that the game is being played in Houston. And write this down, if Pitt survives Oral Roberts and Michigan State (or Temple), they have no chance against Memphis. Memphis is so superior athletically that they could miss every free throw they attempt and still run Pitt out of the gym by 20 points. Memphis's poor free throw shooting is drastically overrated. While it is important late in games, usually the better free throw shooters are shooting in those situations, Joey Dorsey won't be on the line shooting two, down by 1 with 30 seconds to go. Those shots will go to Derrick Rose and CDR (watch the announcers try to call him Chris Douglas-Roberts every time, then give up and just go with CDR by the second half) in the crucial situations. Also, Memphis just happened to have a particularly poor game from the line when they played Tennessee, the only time most people have seen them play all year. But the difference over the course of one game between Memphis and the average team from the line will be about 2 points, 13 of 20 compared to 15 of 20. Not likely enough to be the difference between winning and losing, living and dying.
I've got Indiana winning their first round game against Arkansas. They have one of the best duos in the nation in Gordon and White, let's see if they've just phoned it in.
The 5-12 upset will return this year. My choice is Villanova over Clemson because I think Villanova has the ball-handling and the outside shooting to make Clemson pay for pressing them. I think Notre Dame and Drake are too strong to get knocked off, so I had a 50/50 shot between Clemson and Michigan State but Coach Izzo always does well in the tournament.
I'm also going with 2 11s over 6s. I've got St. Joseph's over Oklahoma and Kentucky over Marquette. I've never been impressed with Marquette and I think Kentucky is a completely different team than they were earlier this season. I picked against Oklahoma because they were the most glaring "overseed" in the field. Those teams usually lose in the first round.
So that puts me down to two 6 seeds remaining, one of which will go to the Sweet 16. Obviously I'm picking USC and my boy O.J. Mayo. A second round matchup against Wisconsin, the weakest 3 seed (in terms of talent, not tournament resume which I discussed in my bracket breakdown, there is a difference) and the one with the style of play easiest to exploit, easy-pickings for a USC team with superior talent.
Every year you also get one 2 seed that doesn't make the Sweet 16. If that happens this year it would have to be Duke that gets knocked off. Tennessee and Texas are much better teams, and Georgetown plays a steady enough game that they should avoid an upset, plus they have Hibbert and two undersized opponents looming in the second round. I also don't like Duke's style of play because on a cold shooting night they have nothing to fall back on. I have had incredible success over the years correctly predicting the 2 seed that would fall victim to the 2nd round upset, but I always seem to have them losing to the wrong team, most famously predicting that Penny Hardaway at Memphis State - as it was called at the time - would knock of Seton Hall, but Western Kentucky actually did it.. But I am going with Arizona and their athleticism over West Virginia and Duke. I think Arizona's tough schedule has gotten them ready for the rigors of March. No, I don't really believe that but I wanted to say it because if it happens every pundit in America will say those exact words. Even the political pundits who don't cover college basketball will echo that meaningless platitude.
Kudos to those of you who recognized meaningless platitude as a redundancy, like the kind favored by the windbag pundits I'm making fun of here.
Even with those upset picks I have a rather conservative bracket, the top 16 seeds all winning in the first round. If I had to pick one of those teams to get shocked, I'd say Winthrop over Washington State. I like the Pac-10 but was never impressed with WSU this season and I actually did seem them play more than any other team out there except for UCLA. WSU is steady but not spectacular. I'm not jumping on the Siena bandwagon (sorry Jems) because I like Vanderbilt's consistency.
Stanford will win two games, but that's it. The Lopez brothers are good and present huge matchup problems for most teams but they lack other good players to provide scoring. Texas should handle them. One reason I don't see Stanford getting knocked off early, a lot of times a key to an upset of a team with a good big man, is he gets in foul trouble and the team can't score or defend without him. But if one Lopez gets in foul trouble, they have another one just like him, though admittedly Robin doesn't have the offensive game of Brook, but he's coming around.
Drake will beat UConn. I've said a couple times already that outside shooting teams are vulnerable to a cold shooting night but Drake has so many good shooters that I can't imagine them all going cold at the same time. And with Adam Emmenecker running the point (he won MVC Player of the Year scoring 8.5 points per game) he'll find the hot shooter, probably Klayton Korver. Drake's style of play also negates one of UConn's greatest strengths, their shot blocking. I don't think you'll see Hasheem Thabeet ("turn Thabeet around, got to hear percussion" - Tony Kornheiser) on the perimeter trying to block 3-pointers.
Gus Johnson is going to be in Denver calling Michigan State-Temple, Pittsburgh-Oral Roberts, Notre Dame-George Mason and Washinton State-Winthrop. He's got no #1 or even #2 seeds likely to cause blowouts. We should get a couple exciting moments from him this weekend.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Selection Sunday Predictions
Updated with results in italics
Your number one seeds are: North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas and Memphis
Easy
Number two seeds are: Tennessee, Texas, Georgetown and Wisconsin
Curveball here as the Committee went with Duke over Wisconsin
Drake and Butler won't get the respect they deserve in the seedings. I think they both deserve to be 4s.
I was right here, but it wasn't just me, both teams were below where Joe Lunardi had them too.
The Big East will lead all conferences with 7 bids but Villanova does not get it.
Villanova got in, presumably as the last at large, giving the Big East 8 teams, 50% of the conference.
This is a random one but I think the Big East will get a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and an 8 seed.
Close, they got a 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7.
The Pac-10 will get 6, Oregon and Arizona will be among the last few teams in, Arizona State will be among the last teams out.
This was another easy one.
The Atlantic 10, which could have gotten 1 team if Xavier won the tournament, will now get 3, with Temple and St. Joseph's.
Right again, as St. Joe's was one of the last teams in. The Hawk will never die!
The Committee will remember this time that BYU needs to be in a region where they can play all their games on Thursdays and Saturdays.
They won't make that mistake again.
Your number one seeds are: North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas and Memphis
Easy
Number two seeds are: Tennessee, Texas, Georgetown and Wisconsin
Curveball here as the Committee went with Duke over Wisconsin
Drake and Butler won't get the respect they deserve in the seedings. I think they both deserve to be 4s.
I was right here, but it wasn't just me, both teams were below where Joe Lunardi had them too.
The Big East will lead all conferences with 7 bids but Villanova does not get it.
Villanova got in, presumably as the last at large, giving the Big East 8 teams, 50% of the conference.
This is a random one but I think the Big East will get a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and an 8 seed.
Close, they got a 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7.
The Pac-10 will get 6, Oregon and Arizona will be among the last few teams in, Arizona State will be among the last teams out.
This was another easy one.
The Atlantic 10, which could have gotten 1 team if Xavier won the tournament, will now get 3, with Temple and St. Joseph's.
Right again, as St. Joe's was one of the last teams in. The Hawk will never die!
The Committee will remember this time that BYU needs to be in a region where they can play all their games on Thursdays and Saturdays.
They won't make that mistake again.
Friday, February 01, 2008
Reviewing My Preseason Predictions
Here are my NFL preseason predictions with a look at how accurate they were:
1) Marshawn Lynch will be a top 10 fantasy running back.
He was tied for 11th in ESPN's rankings and 13th in Yahoo!'s.
2) Lee Evans will have at least one 200 yard game this season.
His best was 165.
3) The Colts will see a major dropoff this year. They might not even make the playoffs. They lost too many good defensive players.
They did have a drop off, but not in the regular season.
4) The Detroit Lions will have an exciting offense (1,000 yard RB, 1,000 yard WR & 3,000 yard QB) but they'll still suck.
I was wrong about the 1,000 yard back, and their best receiver had 943 yards, but they did suck.
5) Stephen Jackson will fall well short of 2,500 total yards and 20 TDs.
He had 1,273 total yards and 6 TDs.
6) Drew Bennett will have a better season for the Rams than Isaac Bruce.
Bruce had twice as many yards and 67% more catches.
7) Adrian Peterson will be the offensive rookie of the year.
Too obvious.
8) The Falcons will win fewer games than the Raiders.
Push
9) First and last in the NFC East will be separated by 3 games or fewer.
The Cowboys exceptional season put them 5 games ahead of the Eagles who finished last, with an 8-8 record.
10) Andre Johnson will have 1,500 yards and 10 TDs.
He had 851 and 8...in 9 games.
11) Vince Young will continue to make strides but lack of a running game will keep Tennessee to 7 to 9 wins.
I had this backward. Young regressed but the Titans won 10 games thanks to a strong running game.
12) Matt Leinart will also have an excellent statistical season (3,000 yards, 2:1 TD to INT ratio), but the Cardinals will miss the playoffs.
Leinart hardly played, but the Cardinals did miss the playoffs.
13) There is only one reason the Chargers won't win the Super Bowl, Norv Turner. But because I think they are so good and so ready after last year's disappointment, I think they will win the Super Bowl in spite of Norv.
Almost, but not quite.
14) The Bears will not make it back to the Super Bowl because I don't think Grossman will solve his turnover problems.
Another one that was too easy.
15) Tampa Bay will be much improved with Jeff Garcia who is steady and Cadillac Williams who will have a good bounceback season after his sophomore jinx.
I'm giving myself credit for this one even though it was Earnest Graham and not Cadillac who led this suprising (not to me) team.
16) Seattle will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl again. Side note: in the NFL, NBA and MLB there is a major imbalance between the two leagues/conferences to the point that at least 3 teams from one league/conference are better than any from the other side.
Wrong
17) The Patriots will play the Chargers in the playoffs again, this year it will be the AFC title game and it will be an epic matchup.
It might have fallen short of epic, but I'm taking credit for this one too.
1) Marshawn Lynch will be a top 10 fantasy running back.
He was tied for 11th in ESPN's rankings and 13th in Yahoo!'s.
2) Lee Evans will have at least one 200 yard game this season.
His best was 165.
3) The Colts will see a major dropoff this year. They might not even make the playoffs. They lost too many good defensive players.
They did have a drop off, but not in the regular season.
4) The Detroit Lions will have an exciting offense (1,000 yard RB, 1,000 yard WR & 3,000 yard QB) but they'll still suck.
I was wrong about the 1,000 yard back, and their best receiver had 943 yards, but they did suck.
5) Stephen Jackson will fall well short of 2,500 total yards and 20 TDs.
He had 1,273 total yards and 6 TDs.
6) Drew Bennett will have a better season for the Rams than Isaac Bruce.
Bruce had twice as many yards and 67% more catches.
7) Adrian Peterson will be the offensive rookie of the year.
Too obvious.
8) The Falcons will win fewer games than the Raiders.
Push
9) First and last in the NFC East will be separated by 3 games or fewer.
The Cowboys exceptional season put them 5 games ahead of the Eagles who finished last, with an 8-8 record.
10) Andre Johnson will have 1,500 yards and 10 TDs.
He had 851 and 8...in 9 games.
11) Vince Young will continue to make strides but lack of a running game will keep Tennessee to 7 to 9 wins.
I had this backward. Young regressed but the Titans won 10 games thanks to a strong running game.
12) Matt Leinart will also have an excellent statistical season (3,000 yards, 2:1 TD to INT ratio), but the Cardinals will miss the playoffs.
Leinart hardly played, but the Cardinals did miss the playoffs.
13) There is only one reason the Chargers won't win the Super Bowl, Norv Turner. But because I think they are so good and so ready after last year's disappointment, I think they will win the Super Bowl in spite of Norv.
Almost, but not quite.
14) The Bears will not make it back to the Super Bowl because I don't think Grossman will solve his turnover problems.
Another one that was too easy.
15) Tampa Bay will be much improved with Jeff Garcia who is steady and Cadillac Williams who will have a good bounceback season after his sophomore jinx.
I'm giving myself credit for this one even though it was Earnest Graham and not Cadillac who led this suprising (not to me) team.
16) Seattle will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl again. Side note: in the NFL, NBA and MLB there is a major imbalance between the two leagues/conferences to the point that at least 3 teams from one league/conference are better than any from the other side.
Wrong
17) The Patriots will play the Chargers in the playoffs again, this year it will be the AFC title game and it will be an epic matchup.
It might have fallen short of epic, but I'm taking credit for this one too.
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