Wednesday, July 29, 2015

The Mets Will Never Win

When I was 8 years old the Mets won the World Series with the best team I have ever seen in my lifetime. A team full of great young pitchers and solidified with some veteran acquisitions.
Chase turns 8 this year and will not have the same experience. In fact, the Mets will probably never win.
The reason why? Their fans are morons.
After years of listening to how they are cheap or stupid, Mets ownership and Sandy Alderson has panicked making three trades to acquire veteran players to solidify a team that isn't very good, despite its position just outside of the playoffs.
The Mets spent years and years wasting money and prospects on old injured players like Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana.
Even in the past few years when the Mets seemingly figured out what they were doing wrong, they still lit $100,000,000 on fire by giving in to Curtis Granderson, Bartolo Colon, Chris Young and Michael Cuddyer.
2015 was supposed to be the year, and if not for the injuries to Wheeler, Wright, D'Arnaud, Matz and Lagares (though he played through it) it might have been. But just because something doesn't work out doesn't mean that something different will.
Look around baseball, look at the teams that are doing well and have sustained it for years, like the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals. They build from within, and they don't panic trade their best guys.
Heck, look at the Houston Astros, the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins. They've built something.
Yes the Royals made a big trade for Cueto, but the time was right for them. They went to the World Series last year. The Mets didn't even break .500 yet.
The Mets aren't quite ready for this. Maybe next year would have been the year to trade prospects for veterans to put us over the hump. But this team wasn't ready and trading five young players for very temporary replacements isn't the answer.
It isn't going to help, it's only going to hurt.
And who will the Mets fans blame then? Hopefully, themselves.

I wrote the above while extremely upset. I don't honestly believe the Mets will never win. I do think these moves, especially the Gomez trade has reduced their chances. But if they do win a World Series and you want to tell me "I told you so" feel free. If they don't win, I will certainly be blaming all of you for why.
Talking with Master Bates, I realize my perspective isn't SO far out of whack with other Mets fans I just want to wait a little while longer because I don't think the team is ready yet. I also think I have a better understanding of the win curve and when it makes sense for teams to acquire expensive (in salary and acquisition costs) players. Also, we all agree about the fickle nature of the major league playoffs, but some of you seem convinced that if the Mets could just pick up a couple games on the Nats and squeak into the playoffs they could go deep and maybe win it all. I don't. I think that's incredibly remote. Even with these new players their playoff odds aren't great. 22.5% on FanGraphs maybe 25% with these acquisitions. Then take 10% of that to win the World Series, and that's being generous. So a 2-3% chance to win the Series this year is enough to trade five young players? Not to me it isn't.
I think the fickle nature of the playoffs means you want to build to be as good as possible for as long as possible. You want good players, signed long-term through their primes, and a thriving farm system to bring reinforcements when those players falter. I thought the Mets were on their way but they seriously jeopardized that with these trades for which I think there is very little upside.

Update II:
The trade didn't happen!


Damino said...

I have been with you 100% about patiently building for the future, and I HATE shipping off young pitching as much as I hate overpaying for veteran free agents.

But the Mets are finally close to being a legitimate World Series team, if they only were to add a bat or two to their lineup. Their starting pitching is amazing and they have bolstered the bullpen, so it's really just the pathetic offense that needs an upgrade. I actually liked the Gomez trade assuming he was healthy, especially since Wheeler is hurt and who knows if he'll ever live up to his hype from a few years ago. I'm not devastated that it fell through, which may be a blessing in disguise, but I think you're being a little too severe in not wanting to go for it until the timing is perfect (which time may never come).

Paul said...

Like I eventually said, we're not too far off. I realize conditions will never be perfect, I just want to be a little more patient. Like adding a bat this offseason. Or adding a reliever or two next trading deadline. Their chances just aren't good enough this season.