Sunday, October 25, 2015

Weekly Picks

Tough week as the Patriots robbed us of a 5-pointer by allowing those late points to the Colts. We also missed a perfect Poop game Thursday night as the Seahawks were an obvious choice to pound the 49ers. Some good games I like on the schedule this week though, so let's see if we can get back on track.

atlanta -6 TENNESSEE
The Falcons coming off their first loss of the season. The Titans using Zach Mettenberger. We could fall into the backup QB trap here, but I think the Falcons will score more points than the Titans can.

minnesota -1 DETROIT
I stand by my man Teddy and think the Lions are a pretty awful team. And I like to pick against bad teams coming off wins.

INDIANAPOLIS -4 new orleans
If Andrew Luck is healthy enough to play, I think he will be good enough to put a lot of points on the board. I always fear Drew Brees, but they are coming off a big win over the Falcons and of course I am always looking to pick against teams that pull off upsets the previous week.

Another one of our corollaries is that teams that do poorly on Monday Night Football are viewed more skeptically by the oddsmakers than had their bad performance occurred on a Sunday. How could the Giants be only 3-point favorites at home against a team quarterbacked by Matt Cassell? The backup QB trap could be at work again here, but generally it applies to backups who never play. We have plenty of evidence to suggest that Cassell is not a good NFL QB.

CAROLINA -3 philadelphia

The Panthers are a good team. The Eagles are not. The only thing that concerns me is that last week was a huge win for the Panthers. As we always say, teams in the NFL don't always play consistently week-to-week.

Last week: 3-2 (2 points)
Season: 18-12 (18 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (3-3)
Home Favorites: 1-0 (6-4)
Home Underdogs: 0-0 (1-1)
Road Favorites: 1-2 (8-6)
Road Underdogs: 1-0 (3-1)

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