Weekly Picks

Another bad week of picks. A 1-2 record (salvaged by the Giants) leaves me at 8-7 after a 6-2 start. I'll have to win all of these games to get back to my goal of two-thirds correct. But the good news is somehow Adam and Harley keep gaining ground. They are in a second place tie, two back of the leader. A full slate this week.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -5.5 jacksonville jaguars
Two things I think are overrated in terms of picking NFL games. The dropoff to the backup quarterback and home field advantage. In this case I don't think Leftwich to Garrard is a huge deal, but I will pay attention to the fact that Jacksonville is 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Because the Eagles lost last week this game takes on a lot of importance. Jacksonville won't go 0-8 on the road this season but this isn't where they'll pick up that win. So even though it's a lot of points to give a decent team, I'll go with the Eagles and Up Chuck McNabb.

CHICAGO BEARS -16.5 san francisco 49ers
You can ask every week and I will still pick the Bears. I know it's a ton of points, but this team is pissed off. I believe their game plan for Arizona was all wrong. They will try running the ball more and start Grossman with short and intermediate passes. He went deep too many times. He definitely won't commit 6 turnovers again.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -2.5 baltimore ravens
One of the biggest mistakes gamblers make is believing what they thought, instead of what they see. The Saints are pretty damn good and the Ravens, despite their hot start are pretty close to going into the tank. With spreads of fewer than 3 points I basically just pick the winner. I think New Orleans holds home field in this one.

TENNESSEE TITANS -3.5 houston texans
Bad teams don't usually win two games in a row, but both of these horror shows are coming off wins, and the Titans had a bye week to revel in it. I think Houston might actually be on to something though. I love Andre Johnson to catch 2 TDs and the bonus is, Houston can lose by a field goal and still cover.

NEW YORK GIANTS -9.5 tampa bay buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 3-0 (ATS) with Bruce Gratkowsi. That is not a coincidence. The Giants are playing excellent football right now and are coming off a big win. But I could definitely see them struggling in this one. I'll take Tampa Bay but I'd feel much more confident if the spread were 10.5 instead.

DENVER BRONCOS -2.5 indianapolis colts
Good defense usually beats good offense. But the Colts are a great regular season team. They'll win this one but if they play again in January (even in Indianapolis) they'll probably lose.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +2.5 new england patriots
Once again we have that magic number of 2.5 points. I think the Patriots will always find a way to win these games. Plus I haven't been very impressed with the Vikings this year even though they are off to a pretty decent start. Last week they knocked off Seattle but I don't think lightning will strike twice.