Weekly Picks

cincinnati -6 1/2 CLEVELAND
This is a lot of points to give up on the road but Derek Anderson is the starting quarterback for the Browns. I just don't see them getting more than 17 points...at the absolute most. And Cincinnati should easily put up 24 against a defense that got scorched by the Steelers.

minnesota +3 1/2 DETROIT
How quickly I've turned on Detroit, making them my best pick last week on the road, to picking against them at home this week. Well, here's my explanation: Detroit is destined to be an 8-8 (roughly) team. 8-8 teams win every other week, they beat the teams they are better than, and lose to the teams that are better than they are. I think the Vikings are a better team. And I love the fact that I am getting more than a field goal here.

CHICAGO -12 kansas city
I don't like picking against teams that got killed the previous week because I think the spread is unfairly weighted against them. But I think the Chiefs are going to be downright putrid this year and I think the Bears can stop Larry Johnson which will force the Chiefs to rely on a passing game they don't have. I expect the Chiefs to have at least 5 3 and out drives, and another 3 turnovers. The Bears offense is hit or miss and they scored only 3 points last week. Any kind of rebound...or points off turnovers will make this 12 point spread seem like a joke.

BALTIMORE -10 new york jets
I desperately wanted to make this game my best bet, but I just couldn't, for two reasons. First of all, Kyle Boller might start the game for the Ravens. He could easily give up 7, 10 or even 14 points himself, which would make this spread tough to cover. Second, the spread was 10, 9 1/2 and I probably would have done it. Also I was a little worried that the Jets were just exposed (on film) last week and their embarrassed defense would rebound strongly against an inferior (to the Patriots) offense. Still, I have a lot of confidence in the Ravens defense against a quarterback in his first NFL start. I've got about an 80% confidence that the Ravens will cover and a 25% confidence that they will pitch a shut out, meaning I'd be more surprised if the Jets cover, than if they don't score at all.

new orleans -3 TAMPA BAY
There are two reasons why this spread is absurdly low. First, home field advantage is overvalued and so are performances that are on national TV. The Saints defense looked bad, but they were playing the best offense in the league, and now they are playing perhaps the worst. Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and company also looked bad against the Colts, but they are too good to have two bad weeks in a row. Re-read the previous sentence, I used three forms of 2 in the span of 5 words.

Last week: 4-1 (5 points)
Best bets: 1-0
Home favorites: 2-0
Home underdogs: 1-0
Road favorites: 1-0
Road underdogs: 0-1