Mets 2009 Season Preview

After two disappointing collapses, GM Omar Minaya resisted the calls to blow up the Mets core and start over. Instead, Minaya identified the team’s biggest weakness then went after the best possible solutions to his problem. In doing so Minaya has turned a horrible bullpen into what very well could be one of the best pens in the majors.
Minaya realized the difference in the last two season was just a few games, not a few miles. The Mets were just a couple moves away. So he stayed the course and kept his good young players together.

With Reyes, Wright and Beltran, the Mets have a great trio to build around for at least the next 3 years until Beltran’s contract expires, and Wright and Reyes should play together for the next 10. Around them is still a weak lineup.

Carlos Delgado is old and getting older and I still believe his performance of the past two season is more evidence of his diminishing skills than the two hot months he had last year. A similar situation surrounds new acquisition Gary Sheffield who got old in a hurry. If either of those guys can deliver 30 home runs, the Mets will once again have a powerful offense like the one that carried them in 2006.

The other half of the lineup is fairly weak, with Brian Schneider and Luis Castillo amounting to almost automatic outs. Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church should still get a lot of playing times, playing together nearly everyday against right handed pitchers. I really think Murphy if put in between Reyes and Beltran can develop into a great, patient hitter with a .400 OBP and .900 OPS.

The starting pitching is the strength of this team and with six more years of Johan I don’t see that changing. I expect a huge year from Santana and if he gets some run support he can easily win 22 games. He could last year. There are a few question marks behind him though. Mike Pelfrey was a legitimate #2 last year, if he keeps up that growth he’s looking at 15 to 17 wins. And I still love Oliver Perez. He will never be Cy Young caliber like we thought be might in 2004. But he can be a very good to above average pitcher, especially under the tutelage of Dan Warthen. John Maine is a major question mark who can be the best #4 in the league, if healthy. The last spot will likely be a black hole all season with veterans and rookies shuffling in and out of the rotation.

The bullpen solidified by K-Rod and Putz should become a strength and all the other pitchers should be more effective in reduced roles. If Putz is for the 8th and K-Rod the 9th, then the other relief pitchers will likely be called to get throgh one inning, assuming the starters can go 6 on a regular basis. So that solves that problem.

But one more problem exists, one even more insidious, and more destructive over the last three seasons the the bullpen. As bad as the bullpen has been, the real reason for the devastating collapses has been the lack of timely hitting. We've already established the Mets do not do the little things (good defense, taking extra bases) that win games, but even when they get hits, they don't get them at the right times. They don't advance runners. They don't hit sacrifice flies. They leave tons of men on base.

A lot of the improvement needed in that area could be attributed to luck, but whatever it is, it will be the difference in 5 games this season. And those 5 games will be the difference between 93 wins and a division title or 88 wins and another out-of-it October.