But it's time to face reality: they are not making the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus gives them just a 3.6% chance. They are 6 1/2 games behind the Braves in the wild card race. And if you consider their chances against the Giants in the first round, I'd give the Mets a less than 2% chance of making the NLCS.
Under those circumstances I agree with the decision to trade Carlos Beltran to San Francisco for Zack Wheeler. So far this year Wheeler is 7-5 with a 3.99 ERA in Class A. He's hardly setting the world on fire, but he is considered a good prospect.
Being realistic about the organization, it is definitely the right move to trade a 2% chance of making the NLCS (assuming that gets wiped down to zero without Beltran, which isn't necessarily the case) for a good pitching prospect.
The 2012 Mets don't need an aging overpaid outfielder so even without the trade there was almost no chacne Beltran was going to be resigned for next season.
What to do about Jose Reyes is a much more difficult question. At this point I am convinced the Mets should keep him for the rest of the season. They obviously are playing above expectations, they haven't gotten a knock-your-socks-off offer and unlike Beltran, they can get two draft picks for letting Jose walk as a free agent.
And that's what I think the Mets should do.
I love Jose Reyes as much as the next guy but we have to face facts. He is having an unbelievable season, and is unlikely to duplicate it, especially as he gets older. Reyes is only 28, which is still young but a player of his style is likely to decline at an earlier age than a home run hitter. That is why I am wary of giving him a deal of 6 or 7 years.
If I were the Mets I would offer 5-years, $100 million (I think they can swing this despite the Madoff problems) and if he wants longer or more I would say "vaya con dios."
Even with Reyes, I don't think the 2012 Mets would be a World Series threat. The outfield is still very weak, unless Bay has an amazing rebirth. The starters are still questionable. We have no idea what Santana is going to be and we can't expect ERAs of lower than 3.50 for Pelfrey, Niese and Gee so I still don't feel confident about the starting rotation. And the bullpen will be a major weak spot, though under no circumstances should the Mets sign a big money closer, that's almost always a losing proposition. I also don't think Bobby Parnell has the temperament to close games.
In short, I'm saying what I have been saying for years. The Mets need to stop worrying about today, stop worrying about getting fans into CitiField this season, stop worrying about the New York Post, stop worrying about WFAN and start worrying about building a farm system that will create a World Series contender 3, 4 or 5 years down the line.
2 comments:
Great post and I concur. I want a chance at sustained long-term success, and overpaying someone with a history of injury and questionable attitude is not the right direction for the Mets.
5 years 100M is the contract i was thinking as well...hopefully that is enough, but I doubt it.
Without him, you may also have to think of trading Wright in the offseason and really starting over. The team will be real young with Tejada at short and Duda/FMart/or Capt Kirk in the outfield, maybe Meijia in the rotation and probably 3-4 years away from contending. Don't think Wright would want to wait that long and he is a free agent after next year, so maybe you trade him for a nice package. Won't be popular, but may be the best move.
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