ESPN's resident baseball genius Rob Neyer offer his somewhat disjointed take on Ike Davis. I don't get the comparison to Reese Havens but his overall opinion of Davis ranks pretty close to mine:
As you've no doubt heard by now, the Mets have a new first baseman, a kid named Ike Davis. This spring, Ephraim Fischbein asked Davis (among other things) to name his "most embarrassing professional moment."
Davis replied, "Not hitting one home run in my first professional season."
It's probably that power outage that caused Davis' status to drop quite a bit between getting drafted with the 18th overall pick in the 2008 draft and the beginning of his second professional season.
There were explanations, though. Baseball America:
It's funny, this business ... Davis, a future power hitter? Yep. Last season, split between High-A and Double-A, Davis hit 20 home runs in just 114 games. [Reese] Havens, quicker to the big leagues? Nope. Havens opened last season on the same team as Davis, but wasn't promoted to Double-A like Davis, missed seven weeks with injuries, and finished the season with a .247/.361/.422 line, which is fine for a young shortstop except this shortstop's going to play second base this season and might wind up somewhere even less demanding.
Havens remains a pretty good prospect, but he's obviously been lapped by Davis.
Perhaps I'm too conservative about these things, but I have to counsel against thinking Davis is going to set the National League ablaze from the get-go. At this point, his resume consists of an excellent college career, two outstanding months in the Double-A Eastern League, and 42 plate appearances in Triple-A. I think he's going to be a pretty good player. But I'm not sure he's ready to help the Mets win this year. Which might not be a realistic goal anyway.
After flashing power in college, Davis was slow to recover from a strained oblique muscle and failed to homer in 215 at-bats at Brooklyn after signing for $1.575 million. Still, the Mets regard Davis as a future power hitter. Davis needs to mature physically -- unlike Reese Havens, their other 2008 first-rounder, whom they feel will have a quicker route to the big leagues. He carried the pressure of being the Mets' top pick and pressed.
Showing posts with label ike davis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ike davis. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Cruel Things to Do to Rookies
When I posted the picture of Jason Heyward after his shaving cream pie in the face Mrs. Poop remarked she had never seen that done before.
Then I suggested maybe Mets rookie first baseman Ike Davis would earn the same treatment. After going 2 for 4 in his major league debut that's exactly what happened to Ike Davis though Mrs. Poop insists his shaving cream was delivered in a shirt, not a pie tin.
Another form of rookie hazing occurs with the ball which the rookie wants to give to his mom as a keepsake. What invariably happens is the ball is thrown to the first base coach, who hands it to the excited rookie who inspects it and hands it back. The ball is then tossed into the dugout. Then a wily veteran who appears to be unaware of what's going on picks up the ball, then adroitly switches it with a decoy ball which he tosses into the stands in an effort to scare the unsuspecting rookie who in his excitement may have been unaware of the veteran's cruel legerdemain.
The Mets chose not to play this particular trick on Ike Davis. Instead the Mets equipment man affixed a sticker to the ball and marked it as Davis's first hit.
Other ways veterans bust a rookie's balls (so to speak) include after the game giving the rookie an old beat-up ball, or writing on a ball "Dear Mom, this the ball I used to get my first fucking major league win/hit."
Razor Shines takes it easy on the kid, giving him a congratulatory first bump.
Mrs. Poop's favorite form of rookie hazing comes later in the season, usually September when more rookies are called up, when Davis and other rookies will be forced to don ridiculous costumes for a road trip like when the Yankees make Joba Chamberlain and others perform a traveling version of Wizard of Oz.
Then I suggested maybe Mets rookie first baseman Ike Davis would earn the same treatment. After going 2 for 4 in his major league debut that's exactly what happened to Ike Davis though Mrs. Poop insists his shaving cream was delivered in a shirt, not a pie tin.
Another form of rookie hazing occurs with the ball which the rookie wants to give to his mom as a keepsake. What invariably happens is the ball is thrown to the first base coach, who hands it to the excited rookie who inspects it and hands it back. The ball is then tossed into the dugout. Then a wily veteran who appears to be unaware of what's going on picks up the ball, then adroitly switches it with a decoy ball which he tosses into the stands in an effort to scare the unsuspecting rookie who in his excitement may have been unaware of the veteran's cruel legerdemain.
The Mets chose not to play this particular trick on Ike Davis. Instead the Mets equipment man affixed a sticker to the ball and marked it as Davis's first hit.
Other ways veterans bust a rookie's balls (so to speak) include after the game giving the rookie an old beat-up ball, or writing on a ball "Dear Mom, this the ball I used to get my first fucking major league win/hit."
Razor Shines takes it easy on the kid, giving him a congratulatory first bump.
Mrs. Poop's favorite form of rookie hazing comes later in the season, usually September when more rookies are called up, when Davis and other rookies will be forced to don ridiculous costumes for a road trip like when the Yankees make Joba Chamberlain and others perform a traveling version of Wizard of Oz.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
The Risk/Reward Ratio of Bringing Prospects to the Major Leagues
After years of complete barrenness following the promotions of David Wright and Jose Reyes the Mets farm system is finally starting to bear fruit.
Two of those fruits, Jenrry Mejia and Ike Davis are already on the major league roster, and both contributed to a 6-1 victory over the Cubs. Davis's contribution was two hits and an RBI in his major league debut. Despite these contributions I still think both players and the Mets organization would be best served by keeping both players in the minor leagues until September.
Note: this is now largely a hypothetical argument because the horse is out of the barn.
There are several reasons the Mets player development has lagged behind other teams over the past few years. Bad scouting, pennywise pound foolish drafting (the compensatory draft picks the Mets would have gotten for Billy Wagner were more valuable than Chris Carter) and the underestimation of the value of prospects. But perhaps the biggest factor is a lack of patience with developing players.
There are two main reasons not to rush players: the mental and the physical.
As for the physical, most times players need to learn certain skills as they develop, usually for hitters it has to do with breaking pitches: learning to recognize and lay off them, or even to hit them. Similarly most pitchers have reached a certain point with only a fastball or maybe another pitch, they need to pick up something else before they advance to the majors.
I think this is where the Yankees screwed up with Joba Chamberlain. His stunning success as a reliever early in his career came almost too easy. Except when midges were involved. When he tried to transition to a starter he didn't have enough quality pitches to get major leaguers out 20 times a game.
Most people foolishly attribute Chamberlain's problems to the "Joba Rules" the guidelines the Yankees used to limit his innings. This is not the case. Baseball history is littered with young pitchers who threw too many innings too soon and blew out their arms (Kerry Wood and Mark Prior). Studies have proven that a jump of more than 50 innings pitched from one season to the next greatly increases the risk of injury.
This is why the Mets would have been smarter to let Mejia use 2010 to be a starter in the minor leagues with a moderate increase in innings (he threw 94 in 2009), then next year as a Mets starter on an innings limit of about 170 and finally turn him loose is 2012. That would be the safest approach to building a guy who can be a good starting pitcher for many years to come.
The argument against Ike Davis's promotion is more of the mental aspect since by all accounts he is ready to hit major league pitching despite having fewer than 300 at bats above A ball. Mets fans are very impatient, especially with young hyped prospects and when Davis struggles as I'm sure he will, the fans will boo and blast Davis on WFAN as another Mets bust. Especially because right now the Mets offense is so bad Davis is being called upon to be the savior.
In 1998 the top two quarterbacks in the NFL Draft were Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf. You may not believe it now, but at the time public opinion on them was split, or at least close. We know what happened since then, Manning went on to be a top 5 QB of all-time, Leaf a top 5 bust of all-time. So how did two guys who were seemingly so close end up so far away?
We will never know the answer to that and that is exactly the point. All of this stuff is unknowable. It's impossible to know if Jenrry Mejia will get hurt, or if Ike Davis's confidence will get destroyed if he slumps and gets booed at CitiField. And there is no guarantee more time in the minors will change anything. But is it worth the gamble? Would you be willing to trade this year's production from Mejia and Davis for an increased likelihood those guys will have long successful careers as Mets?
I would, but I'm in the minority as the Mets and Mets fans once again put short-term fixes above long-term solutions.
Two of those fruits, Jenrry Mejia and Ike Davis are already on the major league roster, and both contributed to a 6-1 victory over the Cubs. Davis's contribution was two hits and an RBI in his major league debut. Despite these contributions I still think both players and the Mets organization would be best served by keeping both players in the minor leagues until September.
Note: this is now largely a hypothetical argument because the horse is out of the barn.
There are several reasons the Mets player development has lagged behind other teams over the past few years. Bad scouting, pennywise pound foolish drafting (the compensatory draft picks the Mets would have gotten for Billy Wagner were more valuable than Chris Carter) and the underestimation of the value of prospects. But perhaps the biggest factor is a lack of patience with developing players.
There are two main reasons not to rush players: the mental and the physical.
As for the physical, most times players need to learn certain skills as they develop, usually for hitters it has to do with breaking pitches: learning to recognize and lay off them, or even to hit them. Similarly most pitchers have reached a certain point with only a fastball or maybe another pitch, they need to pick up something else before they advance to the majors.
I think this is where the Yankees screwed up with Joba Chamberlain. His stunning success as a reliever early in his career came almost too easy. Except when midges were involved. When he tried to transition to a starter he didn't have enough quality pitches to get major leaguers out 20 times a game.
Most people foolishly attribute Chamberlain's problems to the "Joba Rules" the guidelines the Yankees used to limit his innings. This is not the case. Baseball history is littered with young pitchers who threw too many innings too soon and blew out their arms (Kerry Wood and Mark Prior). Studies have proven that a jump of more than 50 innings pitched from one season to the next greatly increases the risk of injury.
This is why the Mets would have been smarter to let Mejia use 2010 to be a starter in the minor leagues with a moderate increase in innings (he threw 94 in 2009), then next year as a Mets starter on an innings limit of about 170 and finally turn him loose is 2012. That would be the safest approach to building a guy who can be a good starting pitcher for many years to come.
The argument against Ike Davis's promotion is more of the mental aspect since by all accounts he is ready to hit major league pitching despite having fewer than 300 at bats above A ball. Mets fans are very impatient, especially with young hyped prospects and when Davis struggles as I'm sure he will, the fans will boo and blast Davis on WFAN as another Mets bust. Especially because right now the Mets offense is so bad Davis is being called upon to be the savior.
In 1998 the top two quarterbacks in the NFL Draft were Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf. You may not believe it now, but at the time public opinion on them was split, or at least close. We know what happened since then, Manning went on to be a top 5 QB of all-time, Leaf a top 5 bust of all-time. So how did two guys who were seemingly so close end up so far away?
We will never know the answer to that and that is exactly the point. All of this stuff is unknowable. It's impossible to know if Jenrry Mejia will get hurt, or if Ike Davis's confidence will get destroyed if he slumps and gets booed at CitiField. And there is no guarantee more time in the minors will change anything. But is it worth the gamble? Would you be willing to trade this year's production from Mejia and Davis for an increased likelihood those guys will have long successful careers as Mets?
I would, but I'm in the minority as the Mets and Mets fans once again put short-term fixes above long-term solutions.
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