Friday, January 12, 2007

Playoff Predictions

BALTIMORE RAVENS -4 indianapolis colts
Peyton Manning had his normal playoff meltdown (3 INTs) last week but the Chiefs were so bad that the Colts overcame that. Now he goes up against a tough defense which is threatening to kick Joseph Addai’s ass. If they can take away his running game I think Manning will have to drop back and get his drilled by the Ravens linebackers. One game also shouldn’t mask the Colts’ problems on defense against the run. The Ravens have a good offensive line, a good running back and a great fullback (one of my favorite players) Ovie Mughelli.

Chance the Ravens win the game: 78%
Chance the Ravens cover the spread: 60% (3% chance of push)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -5 philadelphia eagles
I really like the Saints, and they are a great story but I don’t think their team is built for the playoffs. They have a good running attack but a lot of their offense comes from the passing game which will be facing a good, if banged up secondary. In the playoffs defense becomes more important and I don’t think the Saints have a good one. I also think the Eagles are on a roll right now and everything they do is working.

Chance the Saints win the game: 45%
Chance the Saints cover the spread: 30% (2% chance of a push)

CHICAGO BEARS -8 ½ seattle seahawks
Seattle got lucky to beat the Cowboys at home last week. Their luck is about to run out. These two teams played earlier this year and the Bears won 37-6. Either the Seahawks got pissed off and figured some things out, or the Bears are much better. I’ll go with the latter. Rex Grossman is the only person standing in between the Bears and a huge blowout. And remember, he doesn’t have terrible games every week, some weeks he plays well.

Chance the Bears win the game: 98%
Chance the Bears cover the spread: 71% (0 chance of a push)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -4 ½ new england patriots
San Diego has a much better team and the New England has a much better coaching staff. Here is what’s going to happen. San Diego will be leading 20-14 late in the fourth quarter. San Diego will have a 3rd and 6 around midfield. Schottenheimer will call a conservative running play which will come up short of the first down. They’ll punt and Brady will drive up the field for the winning touchdown.

Chance the Chargers win the game: 49%
Chance the Chargers cover the spread: 29%

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