It has become popular among my friends to call me a pessimist everytime I make a realistic point about one of my favorite teams not being as good as everyone else thinks.
So when I wrote a few weeks ago that this year's Syracuse team would miss the tournament, it didn't take long for Pizza Parlor Derek to trot out a bunch of numbers in an effort to prove I was wrong.
But after last night's horrible loss to South Florida, it seems pretty certain that once again, as always, I was right.
First the game, it was the worst SU played all season. They got their doors blown off from the very beginning and once they came back to take a 13-12 lead, USF went on a 20-1 run. Don't be fooled by SU's furious comeback, USF went into the no points offense, but they pretty much had the game under control the whole time. It would have taken a miracle for SU to win that game.
And it will take a miracle for SU to make the NCAA tournament at this point.
Currently SU is 52 in the RPI and their strength of schedule has fallen to 16.
They have 6 games remaining before the Big East tournament starts:
Georgetown, at Louisville, at Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, at Seton Hall, Marquette.
Five of those teams (not Seton Hall) are in the top 26 in RPI, remember SU is 1-6 against top 50 teams this year.
Three of those games are on the road, where SU is 2-4 in conference.
So let's say SU beats Seton Hall and either Pittsburgh or Marquette at home.
That would make them 19-13 heading into the Big East tournament.
I still think they would need one more win, either another of those last 6 or one win in the Big East tournament.
But putting all the numbers aside, the team just isn't very good. They aren't playing well enough to be in the tournament. Whether you blame that on injuries or youth doesn't matter the facts are the facts.
But there is one more fact I need to remind you of, I love this team. I really enjoy watching these young guys play and I hope they will all stick around (though Scoop Jardine has transfer written all over him), because next year, or the year after that (if Greene and Harris hang around), this team is going to be really awesome.
1 comment:
Trotted out numbers, also would've accepted "Made an argument backing it up with several statistical facts". I was right then. You are right now. The difference is a loss to USF'nF and no wins against the top half of the Big East. Still time to correct that but needless to say the road is now uphill.
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