Saturday, January 08, 2011

Weekly Picks

What an idiot I am for picking the Jaguars as my best bet. That might have ruined my season. If I had just picked New England instead I'd have 50 which is 1 point off the desired 3-per-week pace. But now the playoffs are here and there is plenty of time to make up for it.

new orleans -10 SEATTLE
I wanted to make this one my best bet but it seems a little too obvious, and fraught with risks. The Seahawks have lost 9 times this season, all by margins greater than 10. In fact the closest they were in defeat all season was losing to New Orleans 34-19. But here's my fear. The Saints are up 27-10 late. They have the ball and can't run it for a first down because all they have is Reggie Bush and Julius Jones. Seattle gets it back and scores a garbage touchdown to break the spread. I normally don't worry about things like that, but it seems too plausible in this situation.

new york jets +3 INDIANAPOLIS
I think with all the injuries for the Colts this matchup actually plays into the Jets hands. If Revis and Cromartie can cover the outside receivers Manning is going to have to rely on Jacob Tamme. The key will be Mark Sanchez but this doesn't seem like a defense that will really give him major problems.

baltimore -3 KANSAS CITY
I actually think Kansas City has been very underrated all season, not just in terms of their record, but in terms of their talent. They are not a group of overachieving underdogs. They have a lot of good players on both sides of the ball. But I like the Ray-vens Rays (Rice and Lewis) to take control of this game and eke out a victory.

PHILADELPHIA -2 1/2 green bay

The only game this weekend that can't end in a push. That scares me, honestly. I also like that a lot of people are taking Green Bay. They think that Green Bay's pressure will get to Vick but yes, Vick will take sacks but when he is pressured he runs, and when he runs he is most effective. He is not a pocket passer, even though he can throw that deep ball, the Eagles offense is better when he is out of the pocket running.

Last week: 3-2 (2 points)
Season: 45-40 (48 points)
Best Bets: 0-1 (10-7)
Home Favorites: 2-0 (17-14)
Home Underdogs: 1-0 (2-0)
Road Favorites: 0-2 (16-17)
Road Underdogs: 0-0 (10-9)

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