Friday, October 03, 2008

Award-Winning Performance?

Although Johan Santana's heroic performance in the penultimate game of the season was in vain, was it enough to earn him the Cy Young Award?

Let's look at the 4 starting pitchers who will get at least some consideration:

Johan Santana: 16-7 2.53 ERA 234 1/3 innings 205 Ks 1.15 WHIP 3 CG 2 SHO
Tim Lincecum: 18-5 2.62 ERA 227 innings 265 Ks 1.17 WHIP 2 CG 1 SHO
Brandon Webb: 22-7 3.30 ERA 226 2/3 innings 183 Ks 1.20 WHIP 3 CG 1 SHO
CC Sabathia: 11-2 1.65 ERA 130 2/3 innings 128 Ks 1.00 WHIP 7 CG 3 SHO

Webb is a complete non-factor in this discussion, he is way behind in every category except wins and losses.

Sabathia makes for a very interesting argument because he is way better but only pitched half as many starts. But if you were also to exclude Santana's first 3 months, he was 9-0 with a 2.16.

So a vote for Sabathia excuses his first 3 months, but not Santana's.

I think a pitcher that comes over from the other league midseason like Sabathia can win, but not in a year when there are two other great candidates.

With their stats so similar (and I've broken them down further than what I've written here) it really is a toss-up and I can't fault anyone voting for either Santana or Lincecum. And although Linceum does have the only significant statistical edge (strikeouts), I'm voting for Santana because he thrived in a pennant race while Lincecum toiled in obscurity.

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